Since April this year, bitcoin prices have bottomed out and the mining machine market has recovered again.
Today's mining machine market, the official website is out of stock, the spot is tight, and the futures are rampant. Second-hand mining machines that were once sold as "scrap iron" have once again become popular.
And the miners also launched a mining machine battle. Domestic miners and Iranian miners are rushing to throw higher prices and grab mining machines.
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Yang Zuxing, founder of Shenma Mining Machinery, revealed that the current lack of capacity of the mining machine is due to the limited wafer production capacity of the foundry.
This issue may not get better next year. This mining machine war may have just begun.
01 “grab” mining machine
In April this year, the long-lost bitcoin market changed. In just one month in April, bitcoin prices rose by 29.6% and regained $5,000.
Numerous mining machines that slept in the bear market began to "resurrect".
This is evident in the trend of Bitcoin's entire network of computing power – after April, Bitcoin's overall network computing power rose sharply, and reached a new high on July 9, reaching 64EH / s.
But the skyrocketing powers have caused the miners to fall into a "mine machine battle." The first shot was made by Iranian miners thousands of miles away.
Cheng Mei is one of the witnesses of this war.
"In early April of this year, a hydropower station in Chengdu contacted me, saying that there are 6000 Shenma M3 mining machines that need to be shot." Cheng Mei recalled.
That was the eve of the rise in bitcoin prices. At that time, the income of the Shenma M3 mining machine was close to zero, and the price of second-hand mining machines was also at a historical low. A customer of Cheng Mei is hoping to find a low price at this time.
"The market price at that time was 260-280 yuan." Cheng Mei said, "I see that their machine is relatively new, and they have given a quotation of 290." She hopes to quickly win the supply of goods through high prices. The power station also agreed to come down.
However, when Cheng Mei and her clients rushed to Chengdu to see the goods, the power station hesitated, and even directly refused Cheng Mei’s deposit.
Cheng Mei realized at this time that the shipment might be eyeing. After 10 days of hardship, the power station told her that the goods were gone and were bought by a mining machine dealer in Shenzhen.
"I later learned that people in Shenzhen bought the machines at a price higher than the market price of 80 yuan and prepared to sell them to Iranian miners. At that time, Shenzhen counterparts had orders from Iran. Who took them? Whoever has the opportunity to make money," Cheng Mei said. At that time, only Iranian miners were able to afford high prices because of the price advantage.
Since then, Bitcoin mining has once again become profitable with the rise of Bitcoin and the arrival of the Sichuan Fengshui period. The battle for mining machines among domestic miners has also intensified.
The power station that sold the machine could not think of it anyway. Just two months later, the market price of the second-hand Shenma M3 mining machine broke through 1,000 yuan.
"Compared with domestic, the total amount of Iranian mining machines is still much smaller." Iranian mine owner Lao He said to a blockchain, "compared to the recent emergence of many new mines in the country, the mining machine is also filled Dissatisfaction. The battle for the domestic mining machine market may be even more intense."
02 in short supply
As the old saying goes, today, the domestic mining machine market is in a state of difficulty.
“The price of second-hand mining machines is several times that of the beginning of the year. The spot price of new mining machines has doubled the official website price. Some models of new mining machines have been released until November.” Miner Chen Hanping told a block. chain.
In his view, today's mining machine market seems to have returned to the most popular mining machine sales in 2017.
But just six months ago, the mining machine market was still in a depression.
In December last year, the mining machine market reached a freezing point. Many mining machines represented by ant S9 are shut down in large areas. There are even rumors that many mines are selling miners at “waste iron prices”.
At that time, an ant Lite coin mining machine L3+ with official power supply even fell to 230 yuan. Chen Hanping has a deep memory of this.
"What is the concept of L3+ for 230 yuan? The official power supply is about 80 yuan. Calculated, a mining machine is less than 150 yuan." Chen Hanping said, "It is equivalent to buying a power supply to the mine."
At that time, the price of Litecoin also fell to a historical low of $22, a drop of 82.4% from the highest point.
"Our electricity bill is more than two cents, and one L3+ will earn a few cents a day." Chen Hanping recalled, "Those miners who use Sanmao electricity charges will lose money when they start up."
At that time, he had calculated the return period of L3+ according to the price of the mining machine of 150 yuan – as long as the price of Litecoin recovered, the daily income would reach 1 yuan, and the return would be realized in 5 months.
With this mentality, Chen Hanping smashed 500 sets of Wright coin mining machines. "Who can think that the price of the coins has really risen."
When bitcoin prices broke through $10,000, miners who left the market in the bear market returned. The price of mining machines is also increasing.
"In the past, a L3+ official power was seventy or eighty. Now it is three or four hundred, and it has more than quadrupled. There were more than two hundred L3+ mining machines, which sold for a thousand in the previous period." Chen Hanping told a blockchain.
He roughly calculated it and found that he had earned three times the L3+ mining machine he bought last year. In addition to the Litecoin that he has dug in the past six months, he has achieved eight or nine times the gains.
Bitcoin's mining machine market is even more crazy.
In the mining machine sales page of Bitcoin, except for the ant S9 Hydro, all other types of mining machines are sold out.
Bit Continental Mining Machine Sales Page
This picture is a good illustration of the current mining machine market. Not only the Bit Continent, but also the mining machines of various mining machine manufacturers such as Shenma and Core Dynamics are out of stock.
“When the core T2T was just launched, the spot price was only 4,000 yuan.” Chen Hanping said, “The price is now more than 9,000 yuan, and it will take a month to ship.”
Unable to buy the spot, the anxious miners had to switch to second-hand mining machines. The ant mining machine S9, once sold as “scrap iron”, has re-entered the miners’ vision.
The fish pond data shows that the current net income of the ant mining machine S9j with a power of 0.27 yuan/kWh and a computing power of 14.5T is 28.6 yuan. The used S9 mining machine has become a baby again.
"The second-hand S9 mining machine has a minimum of more than 600 yuan, and it also carries official electricity. It can't be sold at all." Chen Hanping said. "At that time, I bought the second-hand S9, I can pick the machine, pick up the power, and I can't accept the power."
"Now it is different. Now a second-hand S9 has risen to 2,500-3,000 yuan." He was moved.
03 Capacity bottleneck
In addition to the rise in the price of the currency, another important reason for the shortage of the mining machine is the insufficient capacity of the new mining machine.
"In terms of the current market, as long as the mining machine is in stock, the price will double." Chen Hanping said, "No manufacturer will be stupid enough to play 'hunger marketing', and there is no sale."
that's the truth.
“The root cause of insufficient production capacity of the mining machine is insufficient wafer production capacity.” Yang Zuxing, founder of Shenma Mining Machinery, expressed his interest in a blockchain.
In the chip industry, chips are cut and packaged from wafers. The chip manufacturers represented by TSMC are called "fabs" by the industry. In addition to self-developed chips, they also have chip production capacity, and provide chip foundry production services.
Production of wafer material wafers
In the mining industry, manufacturers that only design their own chips and do not have the chip production capacity will hand over the chips to the foundry of TSMC. In the chip industry, such companies are known as fabless.
Clearly, fabless has a lighter asset model and more flexible operations. At the same time, however, the chip's production cycle is limited by the fab.
Since 2019, the Bitcoin mining machine has entered the 7nm era, and the production capacity of the fab has made the production of mining chips difficult. The chip is the heart of the mining machine, which seriously restricts the production capacity of the mining machine.
"By the end of this year, the production capacity of wafers is very tight." Yang Zuoxing said. In other words, until the beginning of next year, the capacity of the new 7nm mining machine will be very limited.
In addition, Intel's exit from the foundry business at the end of 2018 also laid the groundwork for mining capacity.
Ai Si community sponsor Zeng Ge has said that once Intel withdraws from the foundry business, TSMC will absorb more orders for chip foundry, and this will continue to squeeze the capacity of mining chips.
He believes that TSMC will give priority to the traditional chip business and send the miner's chips to sub-optimal processes such as 10nm and 12nm chips.
The commercial era of 5G and AI is coming soon, and companies such as Qualcomm, MediaTek, Huawei HiSilicon will enter the 7nm chip market. The production capacity of the mining machine chip inside TSMC will be further squeezed.
Less than a year later, Bitcoin will usher in a new round of production cuts. This means that the mining unit's calculation power, the amount of bitcoin dug in unit time will be halved.
Therefore, some people believe that major mining machine manufacturers will suspend or even stop the research and development of the next-generation mining machine, and expand the existing mining capacity.
For this problem, Yang Zuoxing said that Shenma Mine Opportunity continues to develop the next generation of mining machines.
"Because the price of the currency will rise." Yang Zuoxing said. The miner’s legal income will remain at a certain level.
Lao Zhao, who is close to a mining machine manufacturer, also believes that major manufacturers will continue to develop the next generation of mining machines.
"If you don't innovate, you will die. After the bitcoin production is halved, the more powerful mining opportunities will be 'taken bitcoin' from the mining machine of the small computing power. The old mining machine will definitely be eliminated." Lao Zhao said.
Computation is power, and competition for computing power is the struggle for bitcoin power.
The essence of this mining machine war is the battle for bitcoin wealth.
The soldiers have entered the scene and they have heard the horn.