The 17-year plunge will be repeated? Tens of thousands of BTCs have been transferred to the exchange

"Can bitcoin break through once again in 2019"; this year's expectations, last month gave us a clear answer.

The bitcoin market, which has been quiet for several months, started again in the second quarter of this year. After the price climbed successively, it finally stood at the 10,000 yuan mark at about 7:30 on the morning of June 22, and hit a high of $13,783 during the month. The price volatility is even higher. Once again, it has risen back to the peak level of the bull market at the end of 17 years (data from: BlockVC).

Bitcoin price trend in the past three months (picture taken from: Coinmarketcap)

On the hot search, Dengchao, Bitcoin immediately became a hot topic in the city; but its activity is not only reflected in the discussion, the current market indicators have begun to commotion. According to the data of bitinfocharts, this month's bitcoin network computing power has broken through new highs several times, maintaining the level above 70 EH/s at this stage; at the same time, the number of new users, active addresses, wake-up accounts, etc. on the chain also showed an increase. Trends (data from: Gikee)… But what is more noteworthy in these data is that it usually represents a large amount of money transfer in the currency market .

Large transfers are frequent, and the big sleepers are commotion again.

According to incomplete statistics, since the beginning of May this year, reports on the large amount of bitcoin transfers in the market have continued to increase. In these large-capital currency holders, there is a wallet address beginning with "18mkjb" that caught the attention of the Hash.

News about bitcoin big transfers in recent months (Source: Scallion blockchain)

Last year we mentioned the big money transfer transaction (see "Bitcoin ETF, we will see you next year" ), which was transferred from Bitfinex to about 20,000 bits in April and July 2018. Coins; and at the beginning of June of that year, 10,000 of them were split into four new addresses in units of 2,500 BTC.

In the same year, 18mkjb continued to transfer more than 60,000 bitcoins, but they were mainly transferred between old and new addresses. After the address was quiet for nearly half a year in 2019, it became active again on May 15. At about 10:30 in the morning, 18mkjb diverted 45,000 bitcoins into nine addresses. The addresses starting with "3JoAJ", "3Hz6x", "3CvhT", and "35pBt" received 5000 BTC respectively. It has not been transferred yet; and nearly 25,000 bitcoins in the remaining five addresses, more than 85%, have all been imported into the Bitfinex hot wallet in the later multiple transfers.

Coincidentally, the other addresses that have the same behavior as the 18mkjb in 18 years have also been reactivated in the near future. For example, at the end of July last year, they received 10,000 bitcoins from the Bitcoin one-click trading platform The wallet address, in the same day in late April, the relevant 40,000 BTC will be transferred all the way… Out of curiosity, we continue to dig down and find that most of these reactivated large-capital holders have deposited bits into the exchange. Similar operations for coins .

Data from:

Decentralized transfer, only for quietly piled up exchanges

Indeed, data from Tokenview shows that transactions with a single transfer of over 5,000 BTC have continued to increase since May and June; on the other hand, from the average daily destruction of coins in recent March, there has also been an upward trend; positive evidence The idea that the big sleeper starts again.

The number of transfer transactions with a single transaction amount exceeding 5000 BTC this year (data from: Tokenview)

Daily average of data destroyed by Bitcoin in the last three months (data from: Blockchair)

And through the statistics on Whalealert, we can further understand that a large part of the large amount of recent transfers are related to the exchange's top-up withdrawal. On the day when Bitcoin broke through $10,000 again, more than one transaction worth more than 10,000 BTC was transferred to the exchange. It is worth mentioning that, contrary to the operations that Bitcoin frequently withdraws from the exchange in the middle of last month, the amount of large transfers that have recently flowed into the exchange accounted for more.

Comparison of the transfer and transfer of transactions involving exchanges with an amount exceeding 500 BTC (data from: Whalealert)

From the current statistics, including the 18mkjb mentioned above and the addresses starting with "3D9GDi", "39xRCA", etc., tens of thousands of bitcoins have recently been transferred to the exchange. But the more interesting finding is that the 3D9vAVJesUfkSWcpxMKnCbetNu3VQ2RTZT wallet address is recharged to the exchange by means of multiple decentralized and small batch remittances. As shown in the figure below, the address was split into a number of transactions with an amount less than 300 BTC during the end of June and early July, and the Bitcoin was continuously remitted to the currency. This kind of roundabout operation is quite a way to avoid large transfer alarms and try to conceal operations. However, combined with the recent trading address, we have reason to believe that under the surface data, there are more undetected large-capital holders who are filling the exchange with huge bitcoins .

Familiar routines, reenactment history?

Although the market continues to rise, it is normal for large-value address activities to be frequent; but the behavior of such a pile of exchanges is inevitably suspicious, and with the report of the Ledao blockchain on large-scale operation in early June, we smelled a strong Arbitrage.

Image taken from: Coinmarketcap

During the recent rebound, Bitcoin experienced several relatively large corrections. In June 4th, the BTC price dropped by more than 10% in less than an hour. Later, it was discovered that a large holder of money held 25 million bitcoins to Coinbase within half an hour before the big drop; and in the next two hours of continuous small surplus, the chips were quickly recovered from the market, before 9:30 on the same day. Re-raise more than 20,000 bitcoins twice to Coinbase. Analysts said that if the big wave of this arbitrage has the operation of the contract market, with a conservative estimate of 10 times leverage, at least $700 million in revenue.

Image from: Blockchair

Obviously this is not a case. From the above figure, WhaleAlert's data can also be seen. Before and after the bitcoin reached the new high in the month on June 27 and fell back, the large-volume transaction transfer and transfer situation involving the trading platform showed a significant transfer. . Coincidentally, in the last week, the amount of large transfers into the exchanges continued to increase last night, Bitcoin ushered in a sharp decline – its price began to fall to about $11710 from around 11.45. Although it rebounded slightly in the morning, it still showed a downward trend.

Screenshot from: Coinmarketcap

Whether the plunge last night was manipulated by the major holders of the currency is not easy to say; but from the recent practice of frequent transfers and collectively arranging exchanges, this sharp fall is likely to happen again . After all, aside from the bitcoin mentioned above that has been transferred to the mainstream exchanges, it has not been said that some of the large holders have recently put aside tens of thousands of BTCs that have not been transferred in the new address (for example, they are transferred from 18mkjb and are currently being stored. The 20,000 bitcoins in the four new wallet addresses are also a potential risk that cannot be ignored. It can only be said that large households are turbulent and retail investors are suffering .

As a leek that has experienced a 17-year rise and fall, I have already begun to tremble.

(Source: Hash school; Author: LucyCheng)