Abstract: After the BTC inertia rose yesterday, it stepped back to 12,000 US dollars, but it was hit by the empty army and looked for effective support after a short period of rapid decline. From the historical comprehensive performance of BTC, its long-term upward trend has not changed; in the short term, the downside risks of BTC and ETH have eased, the downside space has decreased, and the volatility situation tends to change space by time.
According to QKL123 statistics, on July 11, 2019, the total market value of the global Token market was 2,292.262 billion yuan, the total market value of 24 hours increased or decreased to -7.37%, the total turnover of 24 hours was 686.241 billion yuan, and the total turnover of 24 hours changed. At +15.86%, market activity has continued to increase over the past few days. The market value of BTC accounted for 64.53%, which was slightly lower than yesterday (65.16%). The market value of ETH was 9.24%, which was slightly lower than yesterday (9.30%). The risk aversion of the market is still high.
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At 10 o'clock, the top ten encrypted assets in the market value (excluding USDT), LTC has the largest increase in 24 hours (+10.60%), followed by EOS (-10.59%); BTC has a 24-hour rise and fall of -7.29%, ETH 24 hours rises The decline was -7.00%. The 24-hour rise and fall of the USDT was +1.11%, the 24-hour turnover rate was 5.40%, and the market value (26.883 billion yuan) was higher than yesterday (26.553 billion yuan). The over-the-counter capital inflow was significantly higher than yesterday.
At 11 o'clock today, the Babbitt Composite Index 8BTCCI reported 17, 605. 95 points, 24 hours up and down -8.58%; alternative.me sentiment index was 83, basically unchanged from yesterday (84), the market performance is still extremely greedy. Today, Bitcoin's Google search trend has increased slightly from yesterday, higher than the average of the previous days, significantly higher than the same period last month.
Analyst's point of view: market risk aversion is still high, over-the-counter capital inflows increase, shocks adjust the situation unchanged, there is a rebound demand after a short-term oversold, and market uncertainty increases.
First, the spot BTC market
24H highest: ¥91360.14 24H minimum: ¥81478.88
At 22 o'clock in the evening yesterday, the BTC attacked above $13,000, but once again encountered an air force raid, the volume dropped to around $12,000, and the amount released by the Air Force could pose a greater threat to the $12,000 support point. At 12 o'clock today, the empty army continued to press, BTC's decline further expanded, and is currently looking for effective support, short-term demand for oversold rebound.
Yesterday, the net inflow of BTC funds was +92 million yuan, which was significantly lower than the net inflow (+18.78) of the previous day. Today's net inflow of funds was 2.152 billion yuan, which was reversed from yesterday. Among them, large single (not less than 300,000 yuan) net inflow -94.92 million yuan, medium single (between 50,000 yuan and 300,000 yuan) net inflow -675.6 million yuan, small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net inflow -52,760 Ten thousand yuan. Market shipments account for the majority.
The number of BTC yesterday's currency destruction was 15.5449 million (median), which was significantly higher than the previous day (98.05 million). There was no spot selling of whales in the near future, and the long-term uptrend was not destroyed. The daily currency destruction numbers here are divided into four categories: greater than or equal to 100 million for maximum values (high probability and large amount of selling), historical days for about 0.3%; 50 to 100 million for larger Value (large probability of large-scale selling), the number of days is about 0.8%; the value of 10 to 50 million is the median (normal in the case of non-mass concentration), the historical days are about 17%; less than or equal to 10 million For smaller values (normal), historical days account for approximately 81.9%.
Next block reward halved countdown estimate: 294 days
At present, the BTC's total network computing power is 66.10EH/s, which is slightly higher than yesterday (67.74EH/s), still close to the historical high point, and the long-term upward trend has not changed. Yesterday, the number of active addresses in the BTC chain was 755,900, a slight decrease from the previous day (80.23 million), lower than the same period last month. BTC's valuation relative index MVRV has decreased with the price decline, the market supply and demand imbalance has eased, the short-term downside space has shrunk, and the shock adjustment situation tends to change space with time.
3. Analyst strategy
Long-term (1-3 years): The long-term line can continue to hold or bargain-hunting. Currently, it is in the stage of partial adjustment. The mad cow market may come in the next one to two years, and you can continue to wait and see or bargain.
Midline (January-March): Short-term shock adjustment, downside risks have increased, but downside space is still limited, it is recommended to continue to hold wait-and-see or bargain-hunting.
Short-term (1-3 days): Strictly control the position to fast forward and fast out, and get the oversold rebound gains from the dips near the support level. Resistance is $12,000, support is $11,000, target is $11,500, stop loss is $11,000, and take profit is $12,000.
Second, the spot ETH market
24H highest: ¥2167.38 24H minimum: ¥1845.52
Last night, ETH followed the BTC to open the downtrend mode. The multi-military team retreated and fell below the strong support of 280 US dollars. At present, there are signs of stabilization at 260 US dollars. There is a short-term rebound demand, but it is not appropriate to chase it.
As of 14:00, ETH's net inflow of funds today was -7.79 billion yuan, a significant decrease from yesterday's net inflow (-0.132 billion yuan). Among them, the net inflow of large single (not less than 300,000 yuan) was -19.16 million yuan, which was significantly lower than yesterday (+793). The net inflow of medium single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) was -14.44 million yuan. (+11.75 million yuan) was significantly reduced. The net inflow of small orders (below 50,000 yuan) was 433.76 million yuan. Compared with yesterday ($13.867 million), the market continued to reduce its position, but it was still dominated by retail investors.
The ETH/BTC transaction is up and down, and it is slightly higher than the previous low. However, the downward trend of the heavy volume makes it difficult for ETH to perform again in a short time. At present, BTC is looking for support at around $11,000. ETH's strong strength needs to wait for BTC to stabilize.
At present, the top ten ETH DApp activity levels continue to rise compared to yesterday. Among them, the number of active users of the trading platform IDEX (1,329) decreased compared with yesterday (1,512), and the total flow of pledges by DAI (4,539 ETH) increased significantly compared with yesterday (1,880 ETH). Yesterday, the number of active addresses on the ETH chain was 397,600, a decrease from yesterday (432,300), slightly lower than the same period last month.
3. Analyst strategy
Long-term (1-3 years): The long-term line can continue to hold the wait-and-see. The smart contract platform ETH 2.0 project is in the process of advancement, and it is expected to step out of the independent market in the future.
Mid-line (January-March): The market volatility adjusts the situation unchanged, and it can be used for bargain-making or effective heavy-duty upsizing.
Short-term (1-3 days): Fast-forward and fast-out strictly controlled positions, and the short-selling rebounds near the support level. Resistance is $280, support is $260, target is $270, stop loss is $255, and take profit is $280.
Note: Encrypted assets are high-risk assets. This document is for decision-making purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.