In the first chapter of "Cryptographic Currency and Stratum Crossing" , the author once mentioned a point: the reason why Bitcoin quickly created a large number of rich people in the early stages of development, and let these ordinary people complete class crossing, an important reason is : Its distribution method is completely different from the traditional financial currency's way of "robbing the poor and getting rich". Bitcoin networks never matter whether you are an elite or an ordinary class. As long as you are mining enough, you dare to distribute the money to you. So we can see that it is almost the opposite of the real world. At the time, most of the bitcoin was distributed in the hands of the ordinary and middle class. The elites had only a small amount of network-wide assets because they were relatively self-sufficient. This is also a key point for ordinary people to achieve their fate through early involvement in Bitcoin.
However, many friends do not seem to realize that the bitcoin network, once a "grassroots world", is facing a hidden change. For example, in the recent currency circle, there is a news that is regarded as a gossip, but actually has far-reaching significance. Social celebrity Luo Zhenyu said in the live broadcast that he was in February 2019, that is, when the RMB price was more than 20,000 yuan. , bought more than 100 bitcoins, and tripled in this year's market.
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Luo Zhenyu was not the first social celebrity to publicly disclose a large amount of bitcoin. As early as last year, another "Luo fat", also known as Luo Yonghao, also exposed a large amount of bitcoin and made a profit of 30 times. And Cai Wensheng is in a very different way, publicly "live" the process of buying 10,000 bitcoins.
In fact, even the Internet giants, who are bound by the cryptocurrency because of policy restrictions, have long been "all-in-one, business in their hearts." For example, some time ago, some people found that Zhou Hongyi had a close interaction with Sun Yuchen in the circle of friends, which indirectly reflected that Zhou has already had a layout in the currency circle. Although my 360 company can't buy a coin, it is in my own name. It’s okay to get some little tricks. As the "king of the million coins", bitcoin will naturally become a key point of Zhou's investment. After all, although he is very enthusiastic with Sun, you have to say that the former has a heavy position on the latter's altcoin, it is estimated People are generally unbelievable.
Figure: Luo Zhenyu will definitely not be the last elite to publicly claim to buy Bitcoin
As a result, Bitcoin's trading pattern has seen very interesting changes in both market participants and participation styles:
First of all, the participants in the market have changed from "two parties to the main" to "three parties." In the past, bitcoin transactions occurred more between Bitcoin miners in the “primary market” and retail investors in the secondary market. This time, the influx of social elites led Bitcoin to present a “three-way hegemony”. The situation.
Second, the overall trading style of the Bitcoin market has changed. In the past, bitcoin transferers often wanted to use bitcoin's uninterrupted features to carry out cross-border value transfer, or use price fluctuations for arbitrage, while elites buy bitcoin usually just for "coin". The rise in status to hedge against the risk of a decline in status due to changes in the times.
The impact of this change in the bitcoin market in the long run may not be known at present, but it is foreseeable that the distribution pattern of Bitcoin and the influence of various factions in the field of Bitcoin, There will be adjustments in the future. At present, it is basically certain that the elites who continue to buy Bitcoin will have a steady increase in their share of the currency and the right to speak in the industry. But the question is, who is the main share of the elite, or is it a bit more explicit: in the future bitcoin industry, whose influence has fallen the most?
The answer is for ordinary investors in the secondary market, who will be the group that gives the largest share of the bitcoin market. In the last series of columns, I mentioned that the current market value of Bitcoin determines that it is unlikely to rise rapidly in the short term, and it is difficult to help ordinary people quickly get rid of the existing social class and survival predicament. In this way, ordinary money-bearers are forced to lighten up their positions at any time because of their daily life. Not to mention the other characteristics of the class itself, but also increase the possibility of selling tokens (such as lack of professional operation methods, vulnerability to market conditions, high emotional instability, poor organizational discipline), so that In the face of elites with sufficient resources, strong self-control ability, investment experience or consultants, it is only a matter of time before they hand over the bitcoin in their hands.
It should be pointed out that the miners' mines, which are “digital commercial banks/central banks”, are not much cheaper in this turmoil. They are likely to join the ranks of “sharing hands and giving up shares” like ordinary retail investors. Considering that the current bitcoin has been dug up by 3/4, most of the asset allocation is done in the secondary market, so the mining circle as a “primary market”, the ability and industry influence of the coin has been Can not be compared with the past. Although their investment style is much better than the ordinary class, they have a fatal weakness compared with the elite: that is, it is necessary to maintain business by selling coins. The elites can obtain stable cash flow through their original business, at least not in real time, so in the face of the latter, the decline in the bitcoin share of the mining ring is also an inevitable fate.
Figure: Elite admission, the average retracement share is the largest, and the miner is second (for easy viewing, the share ratio is analog)
From the above analysis, it is not difficult to see that with the entry of elites, the proportion of Bitcoin is not as exaggerated as the traditional financial distribution system, but it is gradually moving towards the latter. After the elites have gradually deployed a large amount of bitcoin, the average person wants to make a big turnaround through the "bitcoin" thing, and the chances will be minimal. The reason is simple: What is the key to achieving class leaps? It is your hands to master the assets or skills that the upper class does not have. Just like the early holders of Bitcoin, they had most of the bitcoin assets in their hands, and the elite did not, so the former ate the bitcoin dividend and realized the class leap to the latter.
After understanding this truth, the next thing is easy to say: now you and the elite have the same bitcoin, and people have more money than you, so that you can not only surpass others And once the bull market is coming, bitcoin prices will rise, and the asset gap between you and others will widen. Suppose you have 1 bitcoin, and XX elite has 100. If one day, bitcoin will rise from 80,000 to 80,000. 180,000, then you can earn 100,000 from the market, and people can earn 10 million. Does this feel familiar and unfamiliar? That's right, this is the fear that you are dominated by the elite in the real world. The harder you work, the faster the society develops, and the gap between you and the elite will grow bigger and bigger.
Figure: The Matthew effect will reproduce the encrypted world after the bitcoin is deployed in the elite
Undoubtedly, for those "coin party", this is a downright bad news, because from now on, they will never be able to achieve a counterattack against the traditional elite by increasing the position of Bitcoin. They may change from abject poverty to a moderately prosperous, or they may change from a well-off to a middle class. They may even become rich from middle class, but there is no possibility of a large class crossing, such as changing from abject poverty to poverty, or simply changing from a well-off society. Riches and so on.
Although there are a thousand reasons why the "coin party" who is desperate to fight for fate is frustrated by the elite's entry, strictly speaking, they are not the biggest losers of this game. On the contrary, they can stay for a while. In the "winner" camp, although the "win" is far less than their previous expectations. Who is the number one loser? The answer is — ordinary people who have neither configured cryptographic assets nor have an intersection with the cryptocurrency industry. In fact, the “small class crossing” achieved by the “coin party” mentioned above is from the head of this group.
The technical reasons why the loss of the encryption industry will lead to the decline of social class in some groups, due to limited space, the author will open a separate article in the series to discuss this issue. In today's article, our main concern is another question: that is, the "big loser" who missed the encryption wave. Who is it?
I believe that readers have heard a word: Many people often go through four stages when they are facing new things: invisible, invisible, incomprehensible, and out of reach. In the 4th order, in addition to "not too late", the first three stages are the timing of the layout, and the return rate of the layout is down. If the stage of highest rate of return—that is, “invisible”, is largely due to a number of coincidences, and its responsibility cannot be counted on the individual's head, then the “disregard” and “inferiority” of information asymmetry factors are removed. If you don't understand the stage, it is a test of personal literacy. If you look down on it, it is likely that the person himself lacks the subjective will to change his fate and achieve class crossing. If he does not understand it, it means that this person lacks investigation into new things. Research and extract the objective capabilities of the analysis.
In fact, in the process of sharing the dividends of new things, even if you just jump out of only one of the two circles of “look down” and “do not understand”, it is possible to share the dividend brought by the growth of the industry. For example, everyone has the opportunity to sort out the resumes of the founders of various blockchain companies. You will find that this wave of people is simply called “the entrepreneurial loser base camp”, and quite a few people are in the traditional field. Only decided to go to the cryptocurrency industry to let go. Not to mention the many early investors in the digital currency, these people are involved in the cryptocurrency industry, not as they later claimed, because they "understand the subtle ideas of Nakamoto," and more In the strong will to change the fate, the result is a sinister opportunity to seize the cryptocurrency.
Therefore, we can see a very interesting phenomenon. The early practice of cryptocurrency and investors tend to present two extremes: either special bottom or special. The former has the subjective intention to change the destiny, so it is “available”; while the latter has the objective ability to understand the cryptocurrency, so it “sees”. So, who exactly missed the early dividends of the cryptocurrency and will continue to miss it in the future? That is the middle class that is sandwiched between the top and bottom layers, high and low. The specific reason is that as mentioned above, they both look down on the cryptocurrency and cannot understand it.
Regarding the middle class, there is currently no definition in the industry that can serve the public. According to the standards released by the National Bureau of Statistics in 2005, the social group with an annual income of 600,000-500,000 yuan can be called the middle class. Considering that China's broad money total has more than six times between 2005 and 2018, it is roughly estimated that China's current annual income of between 3.6 million and 3 million yuan is considered to be the middle class. Through life experience, we can easily find that the life of this class is relatively comfortable, at least much more comfortable than the "silent majority", especially the middle class of first- and second-tier cities. They can satisfy the basic infrastructure. Most of the self needs. This kind of comfort makes it difficult for this group of people to have a strong desire to change the status quo. For example, the popular words such as "staying good times" and "small good fortune" popular in recent years are the projections of the above psychological. For a cryptocurrency that looks risky and full of blackmail and gloom, this group living in the sun is naturally not interested, that is, "look down."
What is more noteworthy is that many middle-class people are not subjectively lacking the desire for self-change, and objectively do not have the ability to understand cryptocurrency knowledge. Here, we need to point out a misunderstanding: Many people think that the reason why the middle class can override the ordinary class is the result of stronger learning ability and harder work. However, the fact may not be true. A person's achievements and his class, in addition to his or her own learning ability, are inseparable from other external or explicit external factors: there are opportunities for industry development, such as the introduction of an industry policy. The "big game", the dark is the interpersonal relationship, such as the official and some of the relationship in the workplace. In developing countries where economic development is not regular, the role of these factors is particularly evident. However, the problem is that among these factors, only one of the "learning ability" can be said by the parties on the table. As a result, many people are given the feeling that "the social class is due to the difference in learning ability."
However, in reality, some middle class who succeeded in other factors through other factors still really think that their current situation is the result of their "learning ability", so that when faced with cryptocurrency When subverting their original three views, they often do not choose to adjust their original thinking framework, but will find a ridiculous reason to explain this bug beyond their ability to understand (such as "cryptocurrency is fraud, earning How much money is scams?), then the disabled people flee back to their wheelchairs and escape to their comfort zone. The direct consequence of this is that they don’t understand cryptocurrencies in the past, and now they don’t understand. And in the foreseeable future stage, still can't understand.
Figure: The middle class petty bourgeoisie is the most likely to step on the social class of “look down”, “can’t understand” and eventually lead to “unreachable”
From the above analysis, the middle class is the social group that is most likely to miss the cryptocurrency opportunity and become a loser in this encryption wave. In fact, if you browse the Internet forums of the so-called "elite middle class" gathering place. You will find that people who ridicule the cryptocurrency can be said to be everywhere. However, the so-called "small fortunate" of the so-called war-seekers, the most feared class changes, but ultimately the most likely in the wave of cryptocurrency, another class traversal – that is, the class landslide, and It is not difficult to imagine how much lamentation and self-discipline will appear on the Internet at that time, just as they did in the early 2018s. However, this is really no way to do it – before "too late", you Originally, there were many ways to escape the three barriers of “invisible, look down, and not understand”. As a result, they were all missed perfectly by you. Then, what is your improper background and who is the background?
Click to view this series of articles: Encrypted Currency and Hierarchical Crossing (1): Bitcoin is your only chance to "slap the table"
Encrypted currency and class crossing (2): the chain of traditional elites is confused, or the opportunity of ordinary people
Encrypted currency and class crossing (3): After the layout is over, where do you expect the bull market?