Abstract: At present, the downside risks of BTC have been alleviated, and short-term fluctuations have been adjusted, but there is still a downward trend. From the historical comprehensive performance of BTC, its long-term upward trend has not changed; in the short term, BTC and ETH are in a downward trend, and the two are still looking for a staged bottom.
According to QKL123 statistics, on July 12, 2019, the total market value of the global Token market was 2,182,794 million yuan, the total market value of 24 hours increased or decreased by -5.55%, the total turnover of 24 hours was 625.589 billion yuan, and the total turnover of 24 hours changed – At 9.26%, market activity has decreased. The market value of BTC accounted for 65.15%, which was slightly higher than yesterday (64.53%). The market value of ETH accounted for 9.27%, a slight increase from yesterday (9.24%). The risk aversion of the market is still high.
- QKL123 market analysis | Look at the degree of price deviation through these two indicators (1129)
- QKL123 market analysis | Bitcoin rapid downturn, the altcoin transaction against the new low (0829)
- BTC's trend has been decoupled from gold, will go independent or linked to other
- QKL123 market analysis | Bitcoin 12,000 US dollars were resisted, market uncertainty increased (0807)
- QKL123 market analysis | Bitcoin adjustment is nearing the end, or will start the slow cattle market (1104)
- QKL123 market analysis | Ethereum can rise again, DeFi or can give an answer (0912)
At 11 o'clock, the market value of the top ten encryption assets (excluding USDT), BSV fell the most in 24 hours (-14.44%), followed by TRX (-11.20%); BTC 24 hours rose -4.72%, ETH 24 hours up and down Width -5.12%. The USDT's 24-hour up/down was +0.28%, the 24-hour turnover rate was 5.19%, and the market value (27.103 billion yuan) was higher than yesterday (26.883 billion yuan). The over-the-counter capital inflow increased slightly from yesterday.
At 11 o'clock today, the Babbitt Composite Index 8BTCCI reported 16,619.90 points, 24 hours up to -5.70%; alternative.me sentiment index was 62, significantly lower than yesterday (83), market performance changed from extreme greed to greed . Today, Bitcoin's Google search trend has increased slightly from yesterday, higher than the same period last month.
Analyst's point of view: Market risk aversion is still high, bitcoin supply and demand imbalance has eased, but there is still downside, short-term high probability continues to fluctuate down until it finds a staged bottom.
First, the spot BTC market
24H highest: ¥82093.61 24H minimum: ¥77263.74
Yesterday, BTC's heavy volume went down. Today, at 12 noon, the short-term rebound was weak and continued to decline. The air force has declined, but the multi-military has no counterattack. It is likely to continue the downward trend in a short time. In the short-term, BTC is looking for a staged bottom, and the downward trend still exists. The next step is to test $11,000 and even try to test $10,000.
As of 10:30, the net outflow of BTC funds today was 1.741 billion yuan, a decrease from yesterday (2.152 billion yuan). Among them, the large outflow (not less than 300,000 yuan) net outflow of 630 million yuan, the medium single (between 50,000 yuan and 300,000 yuan) net outflow of 692 million yuan, the small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 41.8 million yuan. The market is still continuing to ship, and shipments are slightly reduced.
The number of BTCs destroyed yesterday was 1,338,370 (normally normal in the case of a large concentration), which was smaller than the previous day (1,544,900). Recently, the off-site address action has been relatively frequent, but there is no spot-throwing action by the giant whales, and the long-term uptrend has not been destroyed.
Next block reward halved countdown estimate: 293 days
At present, the BTC's total network computing power is 65.02EH/s, which is slightly lower than yesterday (66.10EH/s), still close to the historical high point, and the long-term upward trend has not changed. Yesterday, the number of active addresses in the BTC chain was 742,300, a slight decrease from the previous day (7.559 million), lower than the same period last month. BTC's valuation relative indicator MVRV fell to around 2.2, the market supply and demand imbalance has been eased due to the price decline, but there is still a downside in the short-term, the shock adjustment situation remains unchanged.
3. Analyst strategy
Long-term (1-3 years): Long-term rallies can be lighten up or bargain-hunting. At present, it is in the short-term partial adjustment stage, and the mad cow market may come in the next one to two years.
Mid-line (January-March): Short-term shocks adjust the situation unchanged, and the downside risks have increased, but the downside is still limited. It is recommended to reduce the positions on rallies or increase the positions on dips.
Short-term (1-3 days): The market is looking for effective support, and the short position can be short. Resistance is $12,000, support is $11,000, target is $11,000, stop loss is $10,000, and take profit is $11,500.
Second, the spot ETH market
24H highest: ¥1909.93 24H minimum: ¥1840.25
At present, ETH follows the BTC shock, adjusted in the range of 260 US dollars to 275 US dollars, and still has a high downside risk in a short time. In the short term, you may test a strong support of $260 or even $230.
As of 14:00, ETH's net inflow of funds today was +250.7 million yuan, an increase from yesterday's net inflow (-7.79 billion yuan). Among them, the large inflow (not less than 300,000 yuan) net inflow + 58.28 million yuan, compared with yesterday (-19,716 million yuan) increased significantly, the net inflow (between 50,000 yuan and 300,000 yuan) net +11.78 million yuan, relative Yesterday (-14.44 million yuan) increased significantly, and the net inflow of small orders (below 50,000 yuan) was -15.56 million yuan, which was an increase from yesterday (-43.76 million yuan). There is a clear willingness to open positions in the market, but it is still dominated by retailers.
The ETH/BTC transaction rebounded slightly from the previous low, but ETH is hard to perform again in a short period of time. At present, BTC has a tendency to further seek effective support, and the strong strength of ETH needs to wait for BTC to stabilize.
Currently, the top ten ETH DApp activity levels are unchanged from yesterday. Among them, the number of active users of the trading platform IDEX (1,442) decreased compared with yesterday (1,329), and the total flow of pledges by DAI (10,904 ETH) increased significantly compared with yesterday (4,539 ETH). Yesterday, the number of active addresses on the ETH chain was 520,300, which was an increase from yesterday (39.76 million), which was basically the same as that of the previous month.
3. Analyst strategy
Long-term (1-3 years): The long-term line can continue to hold rallies to lighten up or bargain-hunting. The ETH 2.0 project of the smart contract platform is in the process of advancement. It is expected to step out of the independent market in the future, and can open positions or bargain-hunting positions.
Midline (January-March): The market volatility adjusts the situation unchanged, and can be used to reduce positions or bargain-hunting.
Short-term (1-3 days): It is not advisable to chase the high, but the short position can be short. Resistance is $280, support is $260, target is $265, stop loss is $255, and take profit is $275.
Note: Encrypted assets are high-risk assets. This document is for decision-making purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.