Built on the Ethereum network, Veil is a peer-to-peer forecasting market and derivatives trading platform. Users can create their own forecasting market by logging into Ethereum wallets, get paid when others bet, and participate in related derivatives trading. .
Veil announced in January that it was based on Augur's forecast market browser. In May, it announced that it would fork Augur's own forecasting market. In July, it was a short-lived announcement. Veil co-founder and CEO Paul Fletcher explained:
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“The team can't make its own products suitable for existing markets because the current user community is too small.”
According to DefiPulse, in the past three months, Veil has locked in a value of $6-85,000. But even on Augur, there is currently only $870,000 in locks. Decentralized forecasting market is still very small, and relatively well-known projects include: Augur, Veil, Bodhi, DOS Network, etc.
In the outage description, Paul Fletcher pointed out three predicaments in predicting the market:
1. We want to do too much. Forecasting the market is a broad form of gambling, derivatives and insurance. Centralized versions of these vertical fields may be more suitable for users than general forms;
2. We did not provide a good entry experience. The cryptocurrency is still at an early stage as a user base, and we have not provided enough convenience for users who do not have cryptocurrencies or wallets;
3. We are not decentralized or regulated. Some users want a completely decentralized, unstoppable product, while others want a regulated product. It is difficult to provide something that people think is valuable between the two. Is the question raised by Paul Fletcher universal? Did the DeFi ecology that exploded this year ushered in its first Waterloo?
Babbitt interviewed Lin Xiaohong, the founder of Bodhi, and Sun Xiaohu, the head of DOS Network operations. They are also predictive market platforms. Are they also facing the problem of stock users and regulatory deviations? How do they view the current dilemma and future development of the forecast market?
Babbitt: How do you see Veil's outage? Is it universal?
Sun Xiaohu: These three questions of Veil are indeed universal. First, it is not easy to focus on one function at present. The pursuit is more because there is no user, no feedback and a sense of accomplishment. Moreover, I think that veil is like an optimized version of Augur, not too essential. Upgrade. Second, the industry is in the early stage is a real problem, this market is a small circle, how can you play without eth? Thirdly, I think that they have made a mistake. They have not figured out their own direction. At this stage, there is no way to accept supervision or accept supervision. The significance of doing it is not great.
Lin Jinghong: It is true that the market has been thunderous and rainy since the concept was put forward, and the user base has not been upgraded so far. However, we believe that the blockchain is still an early market. In the early stage of the market, we should try to mine incremental users, instead of simply doing more than half a year and simply conclude that there are too few stock users. We feel that Veil's decision is only due to the operation of its project itself. Babbitt: Is the market forecast to be ToB or ToC? Veil said that there are too few users, but who should the user be? How to expand?
Sun Xiaohu: I think the forecast market is mainly ToC. Of course, the C group here may be more of a large position. Currently, the market share is not large, and the B end will not participate in it. There is not much interest for them. . What's more is that some geeks and enthusiasts who have a higher pursuit of centralization, as well as investors who have a game of mind, have a stronger willingness to participate.
Regarding the expansion of users, I believe that the current price forecast for the digital currency/stock market by forecasting the market may be the easiest way to expand users. No matter whether it is a presidential campaign or a game, or a prediction of games and real estate prices, there is no financial market. This high-frequency sub-scenario, and users with digital currency, are also the most sensitive to price.
Lin Jinghong: I think that predicting the development of the market is definitely to replace the centralized forecasting market as an intermediary from the bottom up. So To B is unrealistic. To C directly bypassing the intermediary is the only way.
There are many factors in predicting that the users in the market are too small. Firstly, the decentralized forecasting market based on the blockchain is indeed poorly experienced, and the user actually has higher requirements for experience than the blockchain technology itself. , to supervise and other benefits. Second, predicting the availability of the market is heavily dependent on the size of the user. When there are too few early users, the prediction itself does not have much practical significance.
There are still too few C-side users who are currently participating in the forecast. Whether it is for C-side users to get tokens or DAPP, there are no small challenges. Therefore, it is necessary to continuously improve the product experience and adopt some marketing strategies to motivate users to participate. We remain convinced that with the continuous optimization of products and the long-term accumulation of user scale, the market is expected to usher in the spring of changing the information exchange model. Babbitt: What do you think is the main pain point in predicting the market? Technology or market?
Sun Xiaohu: It is predicted that the market may face several pain points at present.
From a technical point of view, first, most forecasting markets do not have good front-ends and experiences for users to participate in. Front-end UIs and products need to be simpler and easier to use. Second, the final result of forecasting the market is still centered or voted. To decide that there is a risk of being manipulated and down, it is a better and safer way for a reliable third-party decentralized predictor to push the results out of the chain to the contract.
From a market perspective, the main pain point is that there is no strong actual demand, and most participants may not have strong participation in the event itself. However, this part of the real world has not yet been recognized, so there are fewer users at present.
Lin Jinghong: The main pain point or the user size of the blockchain has not yet formed a Network Effect. Technology and the market are mutually reinforcing. The current contradiction is that the non-standardization of technology cannot support a larger market, and the market size is too small to stimulate large-scale technological innovation. But this contradiction is not absolute. In fact, the industry has been interacting with each other, but this process takes time and accumulation.
Babbitt: Augur, Veil, DOS Network, Bodhi, these major forecasting market projects, what is the difference in direction?
Sun Xiaohu: Augur, Veil, Delphy, and Bodhi are all predicting the market. I don't think there is much difference in the direction. Augur, Veil and Bodbi are more inclined to finance, information, insurance, and quiz. The traditional forecast market, Delphy is more practical, in addition to the above points, but also provide price forecasts, attractions, games and other trends.
Augur is the first decentralized forecasting market in Ethereum. Veil is an easier-to-use and more convenient forecasting market based on the Augur protocol. Delphy is also based on Ethereum and Bodhi is based on Qtum.
UMA is a financial contractual agreement that allows any developer to build a financial contract application on their platform or agreement, and also provides Oracle for use on this platform or applications that use this protocol.
DOS Network is an Oracle protocol that is independent of the chain and platform. Anyone can call DOS's Oracle service through the contract on the public network supported by DOS Network to provide the required chain data, including real-time price, event results, Random numbers, etc.
Lin Jinghong : Compared to Augur's laissez-faire, Bodhi predicts that the market will be more “centralized” in project development and operation. We still hope to guide users in the early stage, educate users, grow users, and solve the forecast market needs user base. Only has this key point of value. Compared to Veil, Bodhi predicts that the market has independently developed the DAPP browser Naka wallet and puti.io, which is currently providing an intuitive interface for predicting market DAPP. The DOS Network should be the same as Chain Link for information uplink services. They can provide more real-time information transmission for the forecast market in the future, and there is a great cooperation scene and space.