BTC fell below $10,000 again, can the bull market hold on?

Bitcoin fell below the 11,000 support level and entered a critical moment of "decision and death."

After a long period of consolidation, Bitcoin failed to maintain its previous support level of more than $11,000 and has now fallen into the $10,000 price range. Today's price plunging marks the first time Bitcoin has been subjected to downward pressure, which may make it more difficult to break the annual high of $13,800.

According to the HOLD market, at 8:00 this morning, the BTC prices in the three major exchanges fell below the $10,000 mark. As of press time, the fire currency temporarily reported 10142 USDT, OKEx temporarily reported 10147 USDT, and the currency was temporarily reported 10139 USDT.

In the past 24 hours, the total market value of cryptocurrencies has shrunk by more than $20 billion, currently only $273 billion. In the past week, BTC has continued to fall after breaking through $13,000 for a short period of time, with a cumulative decline of 12%.

This decline can be traced back to July 9th. On the night of the coin, there was a large sell-off of bitcoin. Nearly 7,000 BTCs were sold in a concentrated manner, which directly led to a drop of about $400 in BTC prices.

In the professional investment community TradingView's big V Yu Bolun, as the profit is realized, the profit increases, the main force does not have the mood to stand up and choose to ship, so the market plummeted.

The Coindesk analysis also pointed out that the decline in the market was mainly due to the cash out of the previous profit-seekers and the lack of funds in the market. In addition, there was only a “high volume increase” (that is, the volume of transactions that exceeded the previous decline) ), the market can pick up.

Binance Research believes that Bitcoin's callback so far can be considered "healthy." The reason is that it is not uncommon for bitcoin to be adjusted by 20-40% within one month in the past bull market (currently less than 30% from the high point), which is determined by the inherent characteristics of Bitcoin (supply inelastic) Intrinsic value valuation is difficult), but statistics show that the advantage of Bitcoin in both long-term (past 10 years) and short-term (past 3 years) is that the risk-adjusted return ratio is the highest among all major categories of assets. This means that a certain degree of decline often corresponds to a greater increase later.

Secondly, from the macro environment, the accelerated decline of Bitcoin began after the Fed meeting on interest rates last week (July 10). Statistics show that short-term bitcoin is not a change in most economic data/policy. Sensitive, but relatively speaking, Bitcoin reacts relatively strongly to inflation/interest rate data or policy events.

OKEx chief analyst K Ye also said that the main reason for this round of decline is basically in line with the earlier analysis results, which is a reasonable callback. According to the OKEx BTC quarterly contract quotation, the BTC has risen from around 7,000 USD this round and has not experienced a callback correction of more than 30%. If the bull market wants to grow up healthily and has a long duration, it will inevitably undergo multiple corrections and corrections in the middle.

OKEx Investment Analysis Department shares data

Shocking market, long and short

Before the market began to fall, BTC has been oscillating in the range of 10,000 US dollars to 13,000 US dollars. Many analysts said that the shock market means that both parties are stuck in the gap, and the market is making a choice.

On the one hand, after the previous period's rise and then plunge, the strength of both sides of the long and short sides has completed several rounds of war. After the war, they need to take a break and regain their power to choose the direction again. On the other hand, the confidence of market participants, It also takes time and messages to recover.

The future of the molecule said that once the BTC stabilizes the US$10,000 mark, it is likely to go up; once it falls below, it will go down. “From today's daily chart, BTC has the risk of continuing to fall.”

In the past week, Bitcoin has fallen by only 10%. However, the altcoin has fallen by more than 20% and even the waistline, mainstream currencies including ETH, LTC, XRP and EOS have shrunk by nearly 20% in the past 24 hours. Why did it form a bit of a bit of bitcoin, "a super-weak" situation?

Li Zhe, managing director of Clipper Coin Capital and a partner of Future Money, said that the reason why other currencies fell more and rebounded less was because the main reason for the rise in the previous round was that the funds that the institutions entered were mainly BTC.

The future of the molecule is believed to be mainly due to the blood-sucking market of Bitcoin. Bitcoin and altcoin are currently in a "circulation". Bitcoin has risen a lot. The altcoin has gained less, and the funds are slowly transferred to Bitcoin. Due to lack of financial support, when the market falls, the altcoin has fallen even more. More funds tend to bitcoin, forming a loop. Unless one day, most people think that bitcoin prices have peaked, funds will slowly flow to mainstream coins and altcoins.

K Ye said: "The bull market is also divided into multiple categories, general growth, rising, and structural growth. Previously, our statistics show that the correlation between BTC and other mainstream currencies has declined in the past two months. This is a structured market. One of the characteristics of the weak current round of funds is driven by the inflow of funds outside the circle, so the depth of the good, high consensus BTC is an inevitable phenomenon. Here also give you an investment advice, the strong and strong, the weak are weak. If you are strong, you will be weak in the fall."

Bad news

From the news side, the BTC's decline has the following major negatives.

One is the frequent theft of exchanges. On July 12th, Bitpoint Japan confirmed the theft of encrypted assets. The stolen currency is currently determined to include XRP, with an initial loss estimate of around 3.5 billion yen. In addition, South Africa's largest payment gateway closes bitcoin transactions. Due to high transaction costs and network congestion, South Africa's largest payment gateway no longer supports Bitcoin transactions after July 20. The company also claims that Bitcoin has many limitations and design flaws that cannot be a better cash substitute.

Secondly, Libra, once regarded as the most profitable Facebook stable currency project in the currency circle, has suffered many setbacks in the near future. Including the forthcoming hearings of the US Congress, as well as the Liaison Office of the Ministry of Finance and Finance of Japan and the Bank of Japan for Libra.

This month, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and US President Trump both raised questions about Libra in public. In a speech to the US Senate Banking Committee, Powell expressed doubts about the feasibility of launching Libra on Facebook's timetable. He said Libra caused a lot of serious concerns, including privacy, money laundering, consumer protection and financial stability. On Twitter, Trump also criticized Facebook's cryptocurrency Libra for its lack of status or reliability; at the same time, European Central Bank Governing Council Villeluwa, Bank of England Deputy Governor Kan Lif, French Economy Minister Lemer Both made negative comments on Libra.

Finally, the conclusion that the same amount of institutional funds are also considered to be good for the currency circle has been overturned. Zhao Changpeng, founder of the currency, said that he did not see the organization grow at a faster rate. Although the institutions and retail transactions of the currency are growing, the retail accounted for about 60% of the transaction volume, which is roughly the same as last year.

Market outlook

Regarding the market outlook, analysts still report an optimistic attitude.

Binance Research believes that it is understandable that assets with vague intrinsic value, such as cryptocurrencies, will fall shortly after the Fed meeting, because the attention of funds is temporarily transferred to traditional core assets, but this may not It lasts for a long time, because the world of investment cannot be separated from the “mean return”. When the valuation of traditional core assets is too high, the price/performance ratio is gradually reduced, and the attention of funds will naturally come back. Especially in the long run, the world of legal currency is constantly loose. It will further enhance people's belief in encrypted digital currency.

The hot money network special analyst Bao Daren believes that "the next round of support is still in the previous line of 9832, 8843. Given the current mid-line shock pattern, after the low support verification, the price still has the opportunity to rebound in the upside, as if The market before last Wednesday was average. However, it is necessary to do a good job of supporting the position at the same time, the high-level shock pattern, and the preparation for the main downtrend pattern."

The future of the molecule believes that the future trend of BTC lies in whether it can hold the 9800, 9000, and 7600 US dollars. "People think that there will be a wave of sharp declines before the end of the decline, so first look at the $9,800 can not (form) double bottom (support). Long-term bullish, currently short-term weak."

Little Whale said that the current BTC is still relatively strong and can be purchased at any time. “We tend to think that it is normal for the BTC to pull back to 30-40% every high. Relatively speaking, we feel that we can enter this position now.”

Analyst Leo believes that from the daily chart, BTC has fallen below the 30-day moving average (10964 USDT), which is the first time since March 4 this year that BTC has fallen below this support level; currently, BTC's most important support level It is the 60-day moving average (9500 USDT) and will fall to 8000 USDT once it falls below.

(BTC daily chart: the green line is the 30-day moving average and the yellow line is the 60-day moving average)

K Ye believes that historical data shows that each callback rate is over 30%, the lowest drop is 32%, and the highest drop is 50%. Based on the 32% minimum callback rate, the OKEx Bitcoin quarterly contract has a maximum price of 14460, down 32%, and the theoretical support is at 9832.8 USD.

Screenshot from OKEx Bitcoin quarter contract day K line chart

“As shown in the figure, the adjustment low of the previous round is 10032.92 USDT, which is very close to our data measurement support price of 9832.8 USDT. Therefore, it will probably form a stop-loss support, and the technical support will be near 9200 USDT.” Said the Lord.

Li Zhe concluded that 2019 is itself a layout year, and the big market is in the second half of 2020. I hope everyone will vote + don't add leverage + don't get off.

Some foreign analysts predict that perhaps we will soon know if the short position can fully control the cryptocurrency market, because the market is already at a critical moment that must be held by Hold, otherwise there may be further plunge.

Text | Qin Xiaofeng Aloe

Produced | Odaily Planet Daily (ID: o-daily)

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