QKL123 market analysis | The market is long and short, and it is expected to see the bottom in the near future (0716)

Abstract: In a short period of time, the BTC is supported at $10,000, and the ETH is supported at $200. In the short-term, the downside of BTC and ETH is relatively limited, and the downside risk is reduced. The possibility of continuing to test support is still there. It is expected to see the stage in the near future. In the long run, from the historical comprehensive performance of BTC, there is no fluctuation trend. change.


According to QKL123 statistics, on July 16, 2019, the total market value of the global Token market was 205.538 billion yuan, the total market value of 24 hours increased or decreased by +7.42%, the total turnover of 24 hours was 499.464 billion yuan, and the total turnover of 24 hours changed – 9.44%, market activity has decreased significantly. The market value of BTC accounted for 66.10%, which was slightly higher than yesterday (65.53%). The market value of ETH accounted for 8.54%, which was basically the same as yesterday (8.55%), and the market risk aversion was still high.

At 11 o'clock, the top ten encrypted assets in the market value (excluding USDT), BCH has the largest increase in 24 hours (+12.40%), followed by BSV (+12.07%); BTC has a 24-hour up/down +6.32%, ETH 24 hours ups and downs Width +5.23%. USDT's 24-hour up/down was -0.28%, 24-hour turnover rate was 5.23%, market capitalization (27.444 billion yuan) was slightly lower than yesterday's (27.485 billion yuan), and over-the-counter capital inflows were lower than yesterday.


At 11 o'clock today, the Babbitt Composite Index 8BTCCI reported 15,202.57 points, 24 hours up and down to +5.23%; alternative.me sentiment index was 16, which was significantly lower than yesterday (61), the market performance was extremely panic. Today, Bitcoin's Google search trend is basically the same as yesterday, higher than the same period last month.

Analyst's point of view: Market risk aversion continues to rise, short-term downside risks are reduced, and downside space is relatively limited, and it is expected that there will be a bottom stage in the near future.

First, the spot BTC market


24H highest: ¥76736.15 24H minimum: ¥74164.71

Combined with the 4-hour K-line and volume, yesterday's air force was once again strongly suppressed near 10,000 US dollars. The direction of BTC energy tends to go up, and the army gradually recovers part of the lost ground, and the possibility of short-term downside is reduced. In the short-term, the market once again failed to test the US$10,000. The downside and the rising amount are all depleted, but the amount of increase is not enough to reverse the situation. There is still the possibility of killing another US$10,000 or even bottoming out of US$9,000. The bottom is expected to be confirmed in the near future.

Fund face


As of 14:00, the net inflow of BTC funds today was +736 million yuan, which was reversed from yesterday (-20.44 billion yuan). Among them, the large inflow (not less than 300,000 yuan) net inflow of 43.9 million yuan, the medium inflow (between 50,000 yuan and 300,000 yuan) net inflow of 244.2 million yuan, the small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net inflow of 51.9 million yuan. The willingness to open positions in the market has increased, but it is dominated by large households.


Yesterday, the number of BTC coins destroyed was 6.178 million (historically smaller), a slight increase from the previous day (443.11 million). Recently, no over-the-counter whales concentrated on selling pressure, and the long-term upward trend has not been destroyed.

2. Fundamentals

6 Next block reward halved countdown estimate: 289 days

At present, the BTC's total network computing power is 63.90EH/s, which is slightly lower than yesterday (64.80EH/s), still close to the historical high point, and the long-term upward trend has not changed. Yesterday, the number of active addresses on the BTC chain was 757,200, a sharp rise from the previous day (592,200), which was close to the average of three months. The relative indicator of BTC valuation MVRV is maintained at around 2.0. The imbalance between supply and demand in the market changes with time and space. From the historical data, the potential of $9,000 (ideal stage bottom, corresponding to MVRV around 1.7) may still exist. The changing situation tends to change space with time.

3. Analyst strategy

Long-term (1-3 years): Long-term rallies can be lighten up or bargain-hunting. At present, it is in the short-term partial adjustment stage, and the mad cow market may come in the next one to two years.

Mid-line (January-March): Short-term shocks adjust the situation unchanged, and the downside risks and downsides have decreased. It is recommended to reduce the positions on rallies or increase the positions on dips.

Short-term (1-3 days): The market is looking for effective support, and the risk of short-term operation is high. Resistance is $11,000, support is $10,000, target is $10,500, stop loss is $10,000, and take profit is $11,000.


Second, the spot ETH market

8 24H highest: ¥1639.77 24H minimum: ¥1596.81

ETH is closely following the BTC shock adjustment, and is currently effectively supported at $200, but there is still a high downside risk in the short term. According to the analysis of BTC above, there is not much room for ETH shockdown, but it is possible to continue to test the support of $180 (corresponding to the ideal phased bottom), so it can be partially opened.

Fund face

As of 14:00, ETH's net outflow of funds today was 65.13 million yuan, a significant decrease from yesterday (45.651 million yuan). Among them, the net inflow of large orders (not less than 300,000 yuan) was 68.67 million yuan, the net inflow of medium orders (between 50,000 yuan and 300,000 yuan) was 23.08 million yuan, and the net outflow of small orders (below 50,000 yuan) was 156.89 million yuan. There are differences in the market, large investors intend to open positions, while retail investors focus on lightening positions.


After the ETH/BTC transaction hit the 0.0205 BTC, it gained strong support for a short time, but there is still a further downward trend after the rebound. The relative strength of ETH needs to wait for the BTC to successfully bottom out.

2. Fundamentals


According to Midu statistics, the overall activity level of the ETH DApp in the top fifteen hours of 24-hour activity was reduced compared with yesterday. Among them, the number of 24-hour active users of game encryption heroes (2,505) increased or decreased by -2.28% compared with yesterday, the number of 24-hour active users of video application Livepeer (157) increased or decreased by -0.64% compared with yesterday, and the 24-hour active users of social application Status The number (143) increased or decreased by -2.10% compared with yesterday; the 24-hour total flow of pledge by DAI (9,992 ETH) increased or decreased by -2.54% compared with yesterday, and the 24-hour total flow of trading platform IDEX (4,052 ETH) increased or decreased from yesterday -4.73 %; Stables Paxos Standard's 24-hour trades (1,500) increased or decreased by -1.67% compared with yesterday, and the forecast market Augur's 24-hour trades (258) increased or decreased by -3.10% compared with yesterday.

3. Analyst strategy

Long-term (1-3 years): The ETH 2.0 project of the smart contract platform is in the process of advancement, and it is expected to step out of the independent market in the future.

Midline (January-March): The market volatility adjusts the situation unchanged, and the downside space is limited. The closer to the bottom is the opportunity to open a position. If the position is too heavy, the position can be reduced and the position can be reduced.

Short-term (1-3 days): It can be high-selling and low-suction, with high risk and strict control of positions. Resistance is $230 and support is $200.

12 Note: Encrypted assets are high-risk assets. This document is for decision-making purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.