QKL123 market analysis | Global interest rate cuts expected to strengthen, is expected to regain lost ground in the short term (0722)

Abstract: Yesterday, BTC continued to attack 11,000 US dollars unsuccessful, short-term shock adjustment, market uncertainty increased. In the short-term, the BTC has a high probability of bottoming out at a stage of US$9,000. As the global interest rate cut is expected to increase, it is expected to gradually recover lost ground. From the historical comprehensive performance, the long-term fluctuation trend of BTC remains unchanged.

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According to QKL123 statistics, on July 22, 2019, the total market value of the global Token market was 2020.629 billion yuan, the total market value of 24-hour increased or decreased by -1.30%, the total turnover of 24 hours was 307.147 billion yuan, and the total turnover of 24 hours. The change was -17.27%, and the 24-hour market activity was reduced. The market value of BTC accounted for 65.10%, and the market value of ETH accounted for 8.35%. The market risk aversion is still high, but it has declined recently.

Among the top ten encrypted assets in the market value (excluding USDT), BSV has the largest decline in 24 hours (-6.40%), EOS has the largest increase in 24 hours (+1.04%); BTC has a 24-hour increase or decrease of -0.69%, and ETH has risen and fallen in 24 hours. Width -0.99%. The USDT's 24-hour up/down was +0.04%, and the 24-hour turnover rate was 3.46%. The over-the-counter capital inflow was basically the same as yesterday.

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At 1100, the Babbitt Composite Index 8BTCCI reported 15,408.75 points, a 24-hour rise to -0.45%; the alternative.me sentiment index was 42, which was the same as yesterday (42), and the market performance remained fear. Today's Bitcoin's Google search trend has dropped from yesterday, lower than the average of the past seven days.

Analysts' point of view: Recently, some countries (Korea, Brazil, India, Russia, etc.) collective interest rate cuts have strengthened the expectation of global monetary easing, which will boost the recovery of short-term BTC prices; short-term, BTC attacked 11,000 US dollars failed There are signs of change, and market uncertainty has increased.

First, the spot BTC market

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24H highest: ¥74044.43 24H minimum: ¥71974.53

At 07:00 yesterday, the BTC short-term attack of 11,000 US dollars failed, and then the callback, the amount can gradually shrink, the probability of change is gradually increasing. At present, after the condition of BTC's breakthrough of 10,000 US dollars is realized, the staged bottom of 9,000 US dollars is basically confirmed, but the market needs time to repair confidence, and it is possible to return to the support of 10,000 US dollars in a short time. In the short-term, with the increase in global monetary easing expectations, BTC is expected to gradually recover lost ground and then attack new high ground.

Fund face

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As of 13:45, the net inflow of BTC funds today was 1,197.9 billion yuan, which was reversed from yesterday. Among them, the net inflow of large orders (not less than 300,000 yuan) was 159.69 million yuan, the net inflow of medium orders (between 50,000 yuan and 300,000 yuan) was 152.66 million yuan, and the net outflow of small orders (below 50,000 yuan) was 112.56 million yuan. The willingness to open positions in the market has increased, but retail investors have continued to reduce their positions.

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Yesterday, the number of BTC coins destroyed was 599.27 (historically smaller), which was significantly lower than the previous day (101.88 million), and the chain movement continued to decrease. Recently, there are no giant whales outside the field to concentrate on selling pressure, and the long-term upward trend has not been destroyed.

2. Fundamentals

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The next block reward halved countdown estimate: 282 days

At present, the BTC's total network computing power is 65.68EH/s, which is lower than yesterday, still close to the historical high point, and the long-term upward trend has not changed. Yesterday, the number of active addresses on the BTC chain was 526,700, down from the previous day (680,000), close to the low point of six months, and the possibility of short-term change. At present, although the staged bottom of $9000 has been confirmed, with the rapid rebound of BTC prices, its valuation relative indicator MVRV has recovered to above 2.0. The imbalance between market supply and demand requires price space and time adjustment to digest. The space for further exploration in the short term has increased, and the market is uncertain.

3. Analyst strategy

Long-term (1-3 years): Currently in the short-term partial adjustment stage, the mad cow market may come in the next one to two years, and can open positions on dips.

Mid-line (January-March): The short-term shocks will adjust the situation unchanged, and the downside risks and downside space will be small, and it can be used to open positions or rallies to lighten positions.

Short-term (1-3 days): Market uncertainty increases, bargain-hunting is more, and positions are strictly controlled. Resistance is $11,000 and support is $10,000.

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Second, the spot ETH market

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24H highest: ¥1592.41 24H minimum: ¥1539.79

From the 4-hour K-line, the amount of ETH rebound can be significantly weaker than BTC, and the short-term downside risk still exists, waiting for the BTC to choose the direction.

Fund face

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As of 13:44, ETH's net capital inflow today was 90.06 million yuan, which was reversed from yesterday. Among them, the net inflow of large orders (not less than 300,000 yuan) was 112.22 million yuan, the net outflow of medium orders (between 50,000 yuan and 300,000 yuan) was 13.46 million yuan, and the net outflow of small orders (below 50,000 yuan) was 8.7 million yuan. There are still differences in the market, mainly based on large single positions.

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Currently, the ETH/BTC transaction rebounded to 0.0213 BTC after continuing to probe down to 0.0201 BTC. Observing the amount of energy in the past month's decline, the market has signs of low-cost absorption. In the short-term, we need to wait for the market confidence to recover (the signal of rising volume), and ETH has the potential to be relatively strong.

2. Fundamentals

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Observing the Midu statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour ETH DApp has decreased. Among them, the number of 24-hour active users of game encryption heroes (2,510) increased or decreased by -3.91% compared with yesterday, the number of 24-hour active users of video application Livepeer (188) increased or decreased by +6.21% compared with yesterday; the total hourly flow of pledge by DAI (1,508 ETH) increased or decreased by -6.26% compared with yesterday, the 24-hour total flow (2,337 ETH) of the trading platform IDEX increased or decreased by -3.45% compared with yesterday; the 24-hour trading number of the stable currency Paxos Standard (712) increased or decreased compared with yesterday + 3.04%, the forecast market Augur's 24-hour trading volume (270) increased or decreased by -2.53% compared with yesterday.

3. Analyst strategy

Long-term (1-3 years): The ETH 2.0 project of the smart contract platform is in the process of advancement, and it is expected to step out of the independent market in the future.

Midline (January-March): Downside space is limited, and positions can be opened on dips.

Short-term (1-3 days): The market is uncertain, the bargain is long, and the positions are controlled. Resistance is $230 and support is $190.

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Note: Encrypted assets are high-risk assets. This document is for decision-making purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.