First, the bitcoin market and market changes in the first half of Bitcoin
When the market is ups and downs, it is difficult for individual investors to easily judge the next trend. Looking back at 2019, the Bitcoin market has been in a bull market since the beginning of the year, but there have been changes in the following areas:
1, bitcoin bull market
- Interpretation of Wanxiang Blockchain Research Group: Viewing the Eccentric Development of Ethereum and Blockchain from Devcon5 Conference
- Deep adjustment period of mining industry: Bitcoin's overall network computing power has changed rapidly in the short-term mining machine pattern
- From the troubled USDT to Libra, how to stabilize the currency on the road to compliance
- ShapShift, an established exchange, announced the implementation of “zero fee”, which refers to hosted exchanges such as Coinbase.
- The blockchain has completely detonated the Chinese stock market and the currency market. How long can the magic continue?
- Is the sterling currency inflation mechanism a profit tool? Foundation proposes to abolish
2, public chain destocking
All the subjects that the market pursued last year, including the public chain, are actually declining relative to Bitcoin. Taking ETH as an example, 1BTC can exchange 10ETH in the first half of last year, and can exchange 30ETH in the second half of the year, and now it can exchange 40 to 50 ETH. That is to say, the price of bitcoin is rising, and the price of Ethereum has been falling. The downward trend is slow but has been continuing. This shows that the value attribute of the public chain theme has been stripped.
Last year, the exchange went to stock, the wallet went to stock, and this year it was the public chain to go to stock. Almost all public chains are falling this year, but there are still expectations for the public chain itself. As for which public chains can develop, it depends on the ecology, the application, the number of transfers and the number of scattered addresses, from pragmatic Look at the valuation from a perspective. Bitcoin is not the same. We have to consider the value of Bitcoin. It has a safe-haven property. It is a public reserve asset. It is a global shared ledger. It is a computing network settlement unit and a gold of the new era. These properties of Bitcoin do not mutate and are slowly recognized. Prior to this, both USDT and Libra needed to be popularized.
3, platform coins are sought after
This year's four major themes: Bitcoin, Privacy, Platform, and Strong Token. The platform currency is ultimately the embodiment of financial resources. The current performance of the CoinTiger platform currency TCH is not good enough. The main reason is that the CoinTiger exchange is actually in the process of data climbing, and currently only supports spot trading.
Whether or not the platform currency itself is to be publicized, whether it is to become a competitor of the platform customers, has to be considered. The CoinTiger trading platform is dedicated to a decentralized exchange. The user growth in the first half of this year was very good, many problems have been solved, and the speed of the coin is also accelerating. In the future, we will also launch leverage and futures contracts, and continue to expand our customers, at least in the second-tier camp. The income of the CoinTiger platform itself will gradually increase to a higher level, the market will be better, and the platform currency TCH will have better performance.
4, privacy currency
The privacy currency is one of the four major themes this year, and privacy also includes transfers. Since last year, in addition to Bitcoin, Ripple (XRP) and Stella (XLM), as well as other currency with transfer properties as the core, the overall development is quite good. Grin, Beam, Big Zero Coin (ZEC), Monroe (XMR) and other privacy coins, CoinTiger will be online. The Libra hearing last week was considered to be the US version 94, and the privacy currency was also affected. These privacy currencies are down on the US compliant exchange and can only be placed on exchanges in other states. Since the privacy currency completely protects the transaction, it will be related to the underground economy to some extent. The privacy currency serves 90% of the unregulated Internet. In this part of the Internet market, privacy coins have considerable influence and status. The future privacy currency will definitely have its own pricing method. In the current market, everything in the privacy currency is just getting started.
Second, Facebook is sending money, is it challenging sovereignty?
Many people say that Libra multinational companies are raising money to challenge sovereignty. In fact, before this, Facebook has been criticized for being incompetent. The core reason is the use of user data. The advertising giants make a living from the advertising industry and cannot use accurate user data to achieve accurate advertising. Facebook, Google and some domestic Internet companies are the same. The privacy of users will definitely become the production tool of Facebook. With the privacy of users, Internet companies will become God-like and can eat other industries unscrupulously. Internet companies can make this industry profitable through data. An example of sharing a bicycle is to turn the user into traffic and give the user data to the microfinance company.
If Facebook is not fully pushed, all Internet giants, especially the advertising giants, will definitely join the battlefield of the currency. At this time, look at the market in the second half of the year and realize that everything is really just beginning.
The three major revenue engines in the Internet industry: advertising, games and e-commerce. The game industry is the most exposed to digital currency, and is the first to embrace this industry. However, the payment of digital currency has not yet emerged in this field, and the demand for playing games with bitcoin has not yet risen, so there are not many game applications that can now embrace the blockchain wholeheartedly. The advertising industry's wholehearted embrace of the blockchain will start with Facebook, users can log in with a wallet or private key, store user data locally, or encrypt it in Facebook. Assuming only 10% conversion, Facebook put a wallet on 10% of the more than 2 billion users. Then Facebook becomes a huge trading platform, users can trade virtual items, trade game props, and recharge games. Many countries around the world will deal with them as a unified market. As for how Libra is exchanged, users need to solve it through local acceptors. For Facebook, the profitability of advertising data has been curbed, and new business is needed to make up for the loss of the advertising industry. Libra itself is a huge breakthrough for Facebook, otherwise the company's profit will bottom out.
Essentially: Libra itself is not meant to challenge the financial industry or challenge the dollar hegemony, but the means of self-insurance. Facebook was severely criticized by the Democratic Party for leaking data to outside companies. If Facebook still succeeds in issuing money under this circumstance, then other Internet companies will definitely pay attention to the blockchain. Line has already issued currency, and the currency has been unstoppable. More giants will join the blockchain industry to popularize users. More industries will join the blockchain industry to embrace the blockchain and bring in a large number of Internet users.
For the currency, in addition to the United States, Japan, and some European countries, some areas that are more democratic have not stopped. Countries with weaker financial levels, such as India, are quite hateful to the blockchain. Before the Indian version of the taxation results, the gold trade is developed in India, and the difficulty of tax collection is even worse.
If you look at different countries as a public chain, there are two public chains in Asia: the yen and the yuan. The liquidity of small countries is concentrated in the yen and the renminbi. If there is electronic money and Facebook is endorsed, Libra will never return, and will be issued indefinitely. Everyone is accustomed to using Libra, and the small country will not use the country again. currency.
In the electronic way, many legal coins will withdraw from the market, so small countries are very uncomfortable, but they can't stop it. Conducive to the regulatory policy of giant hair coins, the United States and China will not implement, Singapore, Japan will pay taxes to pay.
Third, will USDT be thunderous?
In mid-October last year, USDT suffered a selling crisis, BTC responded to more than 10 points, and rumors spread. Most of the acceptors abandoned USDT and bought BTC, which suddenly formed huge buying. A large number of USDTs were transferred back to Tether, and USDT was a war, because Tether suddenly withstood the $1 billion run. Frank believes that USDT will not be thunderous. From the release of USDT to the present years, many times it has been sung by the public, but today, other stable currencies have died, and USDT is still used by the public. The USDT will not be too big in essence. The USDT name is worth $1 billion. Its marketing model is also very simple. The only operational risk comes from the government.
As an exchange, it is already difficult to support two or three different attributes of the stable currency, because it needs to be stocked and complete the transformation at the asset level. Although the stable coins of different attributes can be recognized, but cannot be converted instantaneously, the difficulty of stocking increases, so the exchange cannot support countless kinds of stable coins, and the more stable coins, the easier it is to be arbitrage. Because the stable currency must complete the core currency pair, that is, the BTC currency pair, if the currency pair cannot provide liquidity by itself, then the stable currency can not complete the first value confirmation when it is connected to the market, which is equivalent to just sending out a Money, but can't buy gold. Today, in the virtual currency market, no one currency can bypass BTC, so the more stable coins are not the better, but whether the stable currency project can do the free transactions with BTC, such as free trade and free transfer, USDC, TUSD It's good, but there are a lot of stable coins and there is no room for survival because they are not willing to manage liquidity.
4. Several other issues that investors in the currency circle are concerned about at present.
1. Will the current BTC price be adjusted back to 3,000?
The current market is like a bird of surprise, this year is facing the ceiling of the policy. The adjustments throughout July have been sufficient, and will slowly return to a rational state, which will be revalued, with Bitcoin adjusting by up to 40%. Personally think that when you have already reached the position of jiacang, if you have a deep understanding of this market, you will find that the market is beginning to shrink, and when the transaction is reduced, it is the best time to increase the position. If you search for the whale account, you can see that the account starting from 10,000 BTC has been sucking goods. You know, there are not many BTC stocks. But for leveraged users, it's still important to be careful now.
2. What is the impact of the wallet running event such as Plustoken on the currency callback? How do you view the funds and mode disks?
The impact of PlusToken is only a little bit.
The fund disk and the model disk look at the basis of the currency circle. The coin circle is used as a prop, and the impact on the currency circle is relatively positive.
3. Why does Libra as a cryptocurrency move to the counter that competes with WeChat Alipay?
Libra itself and WeChat, Alipay is not a level, Libra has formed its own system, it is a payment tool itself, and it is global. WeChat and Alipay will still be restricted by the monetary system and will not go too far on the road to globalization.
4. What time is the Ripple coin now?
It is not clear about Ripple, and personally think that from the application of transfer payment, Ruibo has an opportunity. With Ruibo or Stella, you can make a lightning network yourself. It is a credit certificate. The transfer speed is very fast and the cost is very low. It is very suitable for transfer payment and liquidation. If BTC is regarded as M0 currency, based on Rippo or Stella is the status of RMB or banknotes, but the entire market must go to the bubble.
Now is a good time. After July, the global market is loose, BTC will definitely benefit.
Every negative speech of the US government is a good opportunity for us. Even if we kill FB, we will not die of bitcoin. FB, Bitcoin, these are all within the US system and will not completely extinguish their own advantages. Coinbase, the world's largest currency exchange, has entered the blockchain industry with compliance transactions in compliance with the US dollar and normal KYC. The US regulatory board is held high and gently dropped. Supervision is not necessarily negative. It must be legally regulated, and there are no opportunities for supervision. It is a good thing to have supervision. As for how to supervise and to what extent, it needs to be discussed.
Author: CoinTiger currency exchange Tiger founder Frank Ling