Bitcoin's total network computing power plunged 10% every day? That is the lucky value at work.

At the end of 2012, Bitcoin's total network computing power was less than 10T, which is almost one-fifth of the current calculation of a mining machine.

Since the beginning of 2019, the computing power of Bitcoin has doubled. In July, the whole network computing power began to steadily stand on the 70E mark.

There is an interesting phenomenon. If you look at the blockchain browser, you will find that the bitcoin's total network computing power is fluctuating every day in the near future. The amplitude is still very large, often around 10E, which is equivalent to hundreds of thousands of mining machines. Switching on and off. Which miner is so boring?
Calculation power 2019·1- today

▲QKL123 bitcoin average calculation chart (2019/1—present)

The above figure is the average calculation of Bitcoin from January 2019 to July 21, 2019 displayed by QKL123. You will find that the computing power presents an up-and-down jitter like an ECG.

Specifically, July 9 was 68EH/S, and on the 10th was 59.8EH/S, a difference of 7.2EH/S, a decrease of 10.5%. Since then, it has been 54EH/S on the 19th and 73.5EH/S on the 20th, a difference of 19.5EH, up 36%. In 2019, the daily fluctuations of the 10E volume are increasing. At present, the ant S17 Pro is a new mining machine with a power of 56TH/s introduced by Bitland. Conversion (1E=1024P, 1P=1024T, 1T=1024G, 1G=1024M, 1M=1024k), the computing power of 10E is almost equivalent to 187,000 ants S17 Pro in the switch machine every day, which is obviously not scientific.

We know that the bitcoin's block time is set to about 10 minutes. Assuming that the computing power is growing, the bitcoin block time will be shortened. Therefore, every 2,016 blocks (about two weeks) will automatically perform the difficulty. Adjust to ensure that Bitcoin's block time is ten minutes.

In fact, the whole network computing power is not coming out at all. The current network computing power displayed by the blockchain browser is actually a valuation based on the time interval of the block time. It is precisely the influencing factor of the bitcoin block time. In addition to the fixed difficulty, there are two dynamic factors, one is the calculation power, and the other is the lucky value!

Therefore, the power calculated from the block time interval is not accurate, and it ignores the lucky value. The lucky value of the whole network computing power will fluctuate around 100%. "The fluctuation of power in 3%-10% is normal, it is affected by the lucky value." Fish pond (F2pool) founder Shenyu said.

At present, some analysts will use Bitcoin's daily calculations to increase or decrease the data to analyze the "hotness" of the mining industry, which is a bit unscientific. The time dimension of viewing the whole network computing power must be longer, in order to reduce the deviation caused by the lucky value.

Of course, the daily increase or decrease of computing power is not meaningless, because it cannot be ruled out that there are some "wall computing power", which will switch mining between BTC, BCH and BSV according to the income.

But this lucky value is very interesting, it is related to the mining pond. If calculated on an annual basis, even if the calculation of the ratio of 2% -3% of the mine pool, the lucky value will maintain a high probability of more than 97%. However, if calculated on a daily basis, it is terrible, because most of the mines are now in the PPS mode, which means that the mines need to be paid according to the user's calculation power. The mines themselves bear the risk of lucky values, and the luck is not good. It is a long-term loss. This is also an important factor in the operation of the small mining pool.

"The stability of the mining pool with higher computing power will be higher, and the cash flow will be more stable." BTC.conCEO solemnly said in "8 Questions."

The network's computing power has risen to an all-time high. Can it break through 100E at the end of the year?

▲ Figure 1

Computing power ▲ Figure 2

Figure 1 is the difficulty map of Bitcoin on the whole network. Figure 2 is the calculation of Bitcoin's entire network. It is not difficult to find that the bitcoin computing power has been rising except for the decrease in computing power between October and December 2018. This growth is terrible. At the end of 2012, Bitcoin's total network computing power was less than 10T, which is almost one-fifth of the current calculation of a mining machine.

On July 20th, the data showed that the total network computing power is 73EH/S, which is almost the highest computing power of Bitcoin. In July 2017, the computing power was only 6EH/S, and in early 2019 it was 40EH/S. The data shows that the difficulty will increase by 1.66% on the 23rd, indicating that the computing power is still growing.

The reason for the increase in computing power is very simple. First, the price of bitcoin has risen, the cost of electricity during the wet season has decreased, and the old mining machine has returned to the rivers and lakes. According to the statistics of the fish ponds, the daily income of 52 mining machines is positive, and the daily income of 46 mining machines exceeds 2 US dollars. Among them, the ant V9 bottom, its daily income is 0.18 US dollars, electricity costs accounted for 85%.

Second, the high-calculation mining machine continued to fight. At present, according to the ants, Shenma, Wingbit, Avalon, and the core official website, their large-scale mining machines have been sold out. According to media statistics, the Avalon 37T A10 series was released in September. The Wings E11 and E12 series were released in late October. Shenma M20S, M21 series futures are scheduled for November. The ant S17 series futures are scheduled for December.

As long as Bitcoin can maintain the current price, these mining machines will be put into operation without exception. However, as the computing power rises and the flood season ends, the current mining machine with positive daily returns but the lower ranking will undoubtedly withdraw from history. stage.

How much bitcoin computing power can we achieve when we update? Previously, Zhang Wencheng, sales director of Shenma Mining Machinery, predicted that the computing power of Bitcoin would rise to over 100E by the end of 2019.

Recently, Technology V's "Mobile Phone Chips" broke the news, Bitcoin has scheduled production capacity of 30,000 7nm wafers in the third quarter and fourth quarter to TSMC. Based on this, it can be inferred that Bitcoin can produce about 625,000 7nm mining machines in two quarters with this order, and then continue to calculate the additional computing power of these mining machines by about 30E in 2020.

Of course, speculation is meaningless, just as bitcoin prices are coming out of the market, and so is the computing power.