In the past two days, there was an incident that was important to the mining circle, but it was ignored by everyone.
That is, on April 8, the National Development and Reform Commission publicly solicited opinions on the "Guidelines for the Adjustment of Industrial Structures (2019, Draft for Soliciting Opinions)", and the virtual currency "mining" activities appeared in the elimination industry.
Subsequently, the heads of Jianan Zhizhi and Bitland's public relations department all told the media that the draft for comments had no material impact on the company's operations.
- Tracking of illegal bitcoin mines on the Dadu River: the mine owner’s investment is back to the original million
- A number of mining machines approached the shutdown line, and only half a year later, the mining machine has to sell it?
- Bitcoin mine illegally set up a special clean-up in Kangding City on the Dadu River
Interviewing the two major mining giants is a traditional media, the author believes that they asked the wrong person. Because the draft for comment has a direct impact, it is not the chip maker upstream of the mining circle, but the mine owner, especially the “institutional” mine owners with government resources.
1. What is the difference between "mining" that has never been allowed?
Let's briefly review the draft for comment.
The guidance catalogue divides the industry into three categories: encouraged, restricted, and eliminated. The phase-out category mainly refers to backward processes, technologies, equipment and products that do not meet the requirements of relevant laws and regulations, do not have safe production conditions, seriously waste resources, pollute the environment, and need to be eliminated.
The first part of the elimination class is the backward production technology and equipment. Article 6 of the other eighteenth group states: virtual currency "mining activities" (the production process of virtual currency such as bitcoin).
For entries in the phase-out category, the entry for the non-standard phase-out or phase-out plan is that the national industrial policy has been explicitly phased out or is effective immediately.
Many people will see that “mining” has never been allowed, and as early as 2018, the Chinese government has taken action to ban domestic bitcoin mining because of concerns about excessive power consumption and financial risks. . Compared with the direct sanctions a year ago, isn’t the current industry elimination a small one?
wrong! The two policies are not aimed at the same person.
2. Mine contempt chain, once compliant "institution" mine
As we all know, for the mine, the cost of electricity is the lifeline, and it can get a lower electricity price, and the mine has a profitable space.
How do we do this? Is it just moving the mining machine to remote areas such as Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Inner Mongolia?
It is not so simple. We must first know that the power resources are controlled by the State Grid. Each province has a unified control of the distribution quota and electricity tariffs every month, and can be monitored in real time through the data platform.
Second, the mine owners are also classified. A friend of mines who asked not to be named told Babbitt, a "wild" mine owner who often reached a private agreement with a power plant in a certain place, the so-called "stealing electricity." Most of this type of mine has been shut down.
Last year, because the media disclosed the live video of the Shihezi mine in Xinjiang, Shihezi shut down all the machines on the second day, affecting more than 200,000 units.
In fact, another higher-order "institution" mine owner is stealing music and buying coal mines at "low" mines at low prices. Compared with the former, the “institutional” mines are larger and have a conservative estimate of one million machines. The reason for this is that they have the ability to obtain low-cost electricity costs from the government in a legal way. ”
This draft of the consultation is aimed at the "institutional" mine owners in the upper reaches of the chain.
3. The secret of the industrial park, draped in the "big data" coat
According to statistics, there are 20 blockchain industrial parks all over the country. From the geographical point of view, they are relatively concentrated in East China, Central China, and South China. However, there are also layouts in areas where the Internet is relatively underdeveloped in Xinjiang and Liaoning.
It must be affirmed that these industrial parks have given great support to the blockchain quality enterprises in terms of policies, funds and venues, and have very good significance for the development of blockchain technology.
However, some miners broke the news that although some bases did not indicate the introduction of blockchain applications, they actually had all the conditions to attract large mines. For example, the park will establish data center stations, substations, factories, office buildings and dormitories to reduce the initial investment cost of fixed assets for Bitcoin mining.
According to the miners, on the one hand, mines can bring huge revenues to the government, such as “institutional” mines, which can generate 9K-4W degrees/hour of electricity, if it is the lowest he knows. If the electricity bill is calculated by 2 cents, it will bring more than 5 million electricity bills every month.
On the other hand, the people who can get the power resources are a small number. These people can either buy the mines themselves to build mines, or they can transfer them out at a higher electricity price.
So, does it mean that the local government knows that it is "mining" and intends to introduce it? This is not the case. In fact, most of these “institutional” mines are covered in legal coats.
"Many cloud computing centers are mines," the miners told Babbitt.
The northwestern region generally uses cloud computing and big data projects, and then enters the park through the investment promotion policy of the high-tech industrial park. Because the data company itself also needs the server to do the calculations, and the mining machine calculates the hash value, then it can be The person in charge of the park talked about the subsidy for electricity.
4. The existing mine plans to go out to sea, but it has little effect on the currency price.
When it comes back to the impact, the author privately asked a number of people in the mining circle. Because the topic is sensitive, they are not allowed to disclose their names. The more negative view is that if strict enforcement definitely has an impact, they are ready to go to sea as the case may be.
However, some people are relatively optimistic. He believes that as long as they are good at packaging, they cannot be screened. For example, a company said that it is doing online education, and then to build a cloud computing center to do data online, data storage, data simulation work, he only need to actually back up the data of the online education company through a shell to check. Moreover, people who know technology are a minority. Who can tell clearly what the machine is calculating?
In order to synthesize the voices of all parties, Babbitt also interviewed two economists.
Financial commentator Xiao Lei told Babbitt:
(1) The draft for comment is actually considered from the aspect of environmental pollution, rather than any new policy on the virtual currency itself. The opinion draft has an impact on the large mines, and the small mines have little impact because the supervision costs are too high.
(2) From a market perspective, China is suitable for the development of mines, and the competitive advantage is obvious. On the one hand, we have abundant power resources, and it is also a waste of water and electricity. On the other hand, we have good infrastructure, such as roads and factories. And most of the world's mining machines are produced in China, and we also have high manufacturing capacity.
Peking University Economics doctoral teacher said to Babbitt:
(1) The local government continues to acquiesce to the smaller space of the mine. It is difficult for large domestic mines to bypass policy supervision. Regarding the risk of stopping, at least the new mines are afraid to continue to deploy. The exit of the large mine will reduce the difficulty of mining, increase the profit margin, and increase the income of small mines that are temporarily unavailable.
(2) The increase in mining profits will increase the demand for mining machines abroad, and will make up for the loss of domestic demand of mining machine manufacturers. However, domestic manufacturers should consider the long-term policy risks and should consider transferring the production capacity to the outside.
(3) The change in mining policy has little effect on the price of digital currency. Regardless of the size of the calculation, the supply is fixed, and the price is mainly affected by demand and the big cycle. At present, the bear market has ended, the market is relatively stable, and the negative impact of the policy is not significant.
(4) Government elimination and encouragement are useful, but not necessarily positive. The elimination policy is difficult to achieve the elimination effect of market competition, often across the board, and cut off the quality enterprises in the industry. Encouraging or supporting is also the same reason, which will cause enterprises to systematically deviate from the market price and profit indicators, and turn to cater to policy guidance and subsidies. Even some large enterprises that rely on subsidies to live, can not get subsidies but are more competitive in the market. Small business.