79% of the altcoin can't go back to the historical high, and this pot has to be bitcoin to back. Bitcoin: Blame me?
Historically, the rise of Bitcoin will bring a parabolic rise in the altcoin, but this round of the Mavericks may not usher in the Alt Season.
Without a catalyst like ICO, the lack of value of the altcoin is not enough, and bitcoin bloodsucking is still going on. Even if the institution continues to enter the market, their focus will be on bitcoin, and the altcoin season will gradually go away…
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Specifically why the altcoin spring will not come? The four reasons tell you.
1. The altcoin that is less than 79% of the upward momentum cannot return to the historical high.
The data shows that the altcoin will never return to the glorious era and return to the peak of history.
Encryption analyst Ceteris Paribus quoted Messari data as saying that "BTC needs to rise nearly 10 times (930%) to reach $100,000. If the altcoin maintains a ratio to BTC during this period, 79% of the altcoin will still be lower than its The highest historical value achieved in the 2017 bull market. "
The altcoin is not only unable to return to the peak of history, but once the bull market has skyrocketed and the thousand-dollar altcoin now runs away from the return of bitcoin.
According to a recent analysis by crypt analyst Ceteris Paribus , only 6 of the 167 altcoins in the market capitalization (Chainlink, Holochain, Ravencoin, Ren, Enjin coin) have higher returns than Bitcoin in the past year. Less than 4%. And, in addition to BNB, other altcoins did not even enter the top 100 market value a year ago.
In addition, the Bletchley 40 index recently showed that since April 1, the small altcoin has fallen 54% against Bitcoin, and other categories of altcoin have not improved much.
Second, Bitcoin continues to suck blood money in the lack of capital inflows
This round of the Mavericks in 2019 may be substantially different from the trend of the previous round of bull markets.
According to the analysis of investment institution 8DecimalCapital, at the end of 2017, the market capital flow has been greatly shifted from bitcoin to altcoin, and then the altcoin has ushered in the collective upswing spring:
On November 12, 2017, BTC accounted for 49% of the total market value;
On December 7, 2017, BTC accounted for 67% of the total market value;
On December 21, 2017, BTC accounted for 43% of the total market value;
On January 4, 2018, BTC accounted for 32% of the total market value. However, Bitcoin in 2019 has been "blowing blood" and has invested heavily in bitcoin instead of altcoin.
Coinmarketcap data shows that the market value of Bitcoin has been climbing this year, and it has stabilized at more than 60% in July. It is currently reported at 64.4%, setting a new high since the bull market in 2017.
In the bull market in 2019, many large institutions entered the market to bring a lot of money. However, the funds of institutions such as Facebook and JP Morgan tend to favor bitcoin or mainstream currency instead of the altcoin that lacks intrinsic value.
In addition, the emergence of Libra has brought a lot of regulatory attention to the world of cryptocurrency. Recently, the regulatory dynamics of various countries have been frequent, and the enthusiasm for institutional admission has gradually subsided.
The amount of money is already small in the cryptocurrency market or will not receive a lot of money in the near future. Even if the institution enters the market, institutional funds will not buy the altcoin, and market traders will turn to the growing bitcoin derivatives market.
As a result, the market value of the altcoin will accelerate and shrink, and even die a lot. More deadly, the era of ICO has gone. In the last round of bull markets, one of the reasons why value flows from BTC to other altcoins is that investors see them as a tool for investing in ICO projects.
Third, the popularity of the cottage currency is low, and the market focus is on Bitcoin.
Compared with the mainstream currencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum and Litecoin, most of the altcoins are extremely low-profile, and in the eyes of the public, many altcoins are still the negative representatives of fraud and funds.
BitInfoCharts brings together the key data information of the main cryptocurrency on Twitter since the beginning of the year. The data shows that Bitcoin appears much more frequently in Twitter than other cryptocurrencies. Most of the time, the number of Bitcoin tweets remains at 1.5. – In the 30,000 area, it was once soared to 40,000 at the end of June.
Compared with Bitcoin, in addition to the mainstream currencies such as Ethereum and Ripple, other altcoins are hardly appearing in Twitter.
In addition, Google Trends data shows that the frequency of searching for Bitcoin is much higher than the frequency of searching for "cryptocurrency" or other altcoin.
The recognition of the altcoin in the mainstream is far less than that of Bitcoin, and this is one of the reasons why funds cannot flow in.
Fourth, the relationship between the altcoin and bitcoin is getting weaker
In addition to the continuous blood-sucking of the pie, the correlation between the altcoin and the bitcoin has become weaker. This shows that the era of bitcoin rising in the currency of the mountain is no longer, now bitcoin is bitcoin, the altcoin is altcoin, and the correlation between the two is getting weaker.
The correlation between many mainstream cryptocurrencies and bitcoin is also lower than that of previous months, after they were highly correlated with each other. Shallot found that the correlation between ETH and Bitcoin fell from 0.93 in May to 0.86 in July, LTC fell from 0.96 in May to 0.74 in July, and ETC fell from 0.88 in May to 0.77 in July.
Bitcoin enthusiast Max Keizer has always advocated the practicality and importance of Bitcoin. He believes that Bitcoin will replace the French currency in the future, and almost all the altcoin will eventually withdraw from the market. Keiser pointed out in the latest tweet:
"In addition to Bitcoin, other altcoins will perish."
"Why is Bitcoin far ahead of the competition? 》
67% of cryptocurrencies fell more than 90% from the highest historical price (ATH)
"The price correlation between Bitcoin and gold has increased significantly"
Author: Long Yue, please indicate the source.