Analysis: Money supply will gradually affect the price trend of digital currencies

According to LongHash, the narrow money supply M1 reflects the change in the direct purchasing power of residents and enterprises. It is an effective representation of funds for social activities and is usually used to measure the current level of economic development. By fitting the US dollar M1 year-on-year growth rate from January 2013 to June 2019 with the bitcoin price, we can find that the correlation between the two is only -0.53, the degree of fitting is poor, and the growth rate of M1 is more volatile. Big. Based on the above results, it seems that a conclusion can be drawn that the supply of the US currency and other indicators have no effect on the price of the digital currency. Interestingly, we have drawn the year-on-year growth rate of US dollar M1 and the price trend of Bitcoin in 2013. We found that after December 2017, the pace between the price of Bitcoin and the growth rate of US M1 suddenly appeared. Consistent phenomenon, the correlation coefficient of the two is 0.78, showing a significant correlation. Further observation of the trend of the two from January 2018 to June 2019, it can be found that the M1 year-on-year growth rate and the price of Bitcoin both bottomed out between January and March 2019, and rebounded in April. trend. To some extent, the current amount of data is not enough to support us to give a precise conclusion, but we have reason to believe that as the digital money market continues to mature, the money supply will gradually affect the price trend of digital currencies. Indicators such as M1 will perform even better in future forecasts of bitcoin price movements.