Market analysis: long-term confidence lost, BTC will soon bottom out again

Since November last year, the Fed has gradually turned to doves, and people have flocked to gold and bitcoin. They have pushed up the prices of these two safe-haven assets, but the market does not only have these two safe-haven assets. In theory, Speaking of scarce resources are safe-haven properties, non-ferrous metals are one of the typical representative of zoom, gold is also a non-ferrous metal, but recently silver has risen very much, and has a chance to catch up with gold.

Relatively speaking, Bitcoin has suddenly experienced some violent fluctuations in the past two weeks. Whether Bitcoin has been out of the battle for this safe haven is worthy of our consideration.

In recent days, there have been some abnormal phenomena . Gold and the US dollar have risen side by side. In general, gold and the US dollar index have a negative correlation, and there is little simultaneous increase. This shows that the currency attractiveness of other countries is declining and there is an economic crisis. Possibilities, in the shadow of the economic crisis, the risks of emerging industries are usually large, and the cryptocurrency assets represented by Bitcoin may no longer have the glory of the first half of the year.

Tomorrow is the Tether hearing. I personally think that market volatility may increase and pay attention to risks.


There have been some recent things that have stopped for a while and the views have not changed much.

Yesterday, BTC once rose above 10,000 US dollars, but unfortunately the top selling pressure was too big, once again ushered in a wave of diving, the lowest fell to around 9300 US dollars, and with the volume increased, the macd indicator continued to diverge below the zero axis, the moving average The system has formed a short position, the trend is bearish, and there is a need to continue to explore.

This round will test the support of the low point of 9,000 US dollars. If it stops at this point, it will form a double-bottom structure, which will counter the pressure of 11,000 US dollars. If it falls below the support of 9,000 US dollars, it will need to leave. Wait and see.


ETH followed the market yesterday, the volume of the market is not obvious, the target's previous period of decline is large, the late rebound is not strong, can only follow the market's weak shock, the possibility of getting out of the V-reversal is small.

Still the previous view remains unchanged, the main force may use the shock to repair the indicators that have gone bad, and then will return to the bottom range of 190-200 dollars.

I personally think that in the short term, the target will be consolidating within the range of $190-225 , with a low draw near $ 190, a high throw near $225, and an effective break of $225 to $260. A break below the $190 exit, in addition to the need to keep an eye on the BTC, to prevent the BTC from falling, driving the target down.


BCH's two consecutive attempts to test the pressure of 330 US dollars failed to pass, the market is weak, the rebound market may continue to wait, the short-term moving averages have no trend direction, the currency price has returned to 5 antennas, and 5 antennas have been Turning head down, macd indicator weak regional gold fork, limited strength, volume continues to shrink.

Maintaining the previous view unchanged, the oversold rebound has basically reached the first target, and then the target will have to test a support of 240 US dollars. If it does not fall below this point, it may induce a small rebound.

I personally think that at this point, you can boldly participate in the rebound. If you effectively fall below $240, it will be bullish and will not wait and see.


In fact, a few days before the longest decline, the platform currency did not fall, contrary to the overall trend of the market, but in the end the platform bulls still could not turn the tide, and the market began to fall.

After hitting 60 antennas, BNB quickly fell back, indicating that the pressure here is too large, and the 60 antennas have turned heads down to a certain pressure on the price of the currency. The macd indicator repeatedly repeats the golden fork in the weak area. Personally, this time The target position of the pumping has been basically completed, and it can be basically determined that 60 antennas cannot be effectively returned, and the target will open the bottoming path again.

Personally, the previous low of 24 dollars can not constitute an effective support, will break through the point and continue to go down, pay attention to risk.

The author's point of view is only used for learning communication, not as an investment recommendation, and does not constitute an investment basis!

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