"Bitcoin will rise to $380,000"? Please think about these issues first.

All success is not a hole in the wind, you have to believe that everything is traceable.

– Foreword

Recently, the articles on drunken bitcoin and other digital coins have increased. Some of them directly reinforce the "investment holy grail" with the title of "the bull market has begun to appear", and it is concluded that bitcoin will rise to "38". In case of "the conclusion", it is accurate to single digits to prove that the conclusion is justified. Some of them are vowed to give predictions. After more than a year of bear market, 4,000 US dollars is already an iron bottom. It will fluctuate upwards and will exceed the highest value of 20,000 US dollars when the bitcoin production will be halved next year.

The conclusion of the conclusion is actually only one sentence: now is the best time to buy digital coins. Those who are swaying in the spring are stunned, and people with poor self-control may understand that it is the best time for Stud.

I seriously think about their logic, as if it is well-founded, but the reason I have been trained for many years has blocked me.

The first question is, after the bitcoin skyrocketed from $4,100 to $5,000, the article on drunken bitcoin and digital currency increased. There is a very important psychological phenomenon called “persuasive effect”, that is, we are more likely to be convinced by credible sources of information than credible arguments. Many people think that price is a reliable source of information about value, and the price reflects the overall balance of all market opinions, so the increase in bitcoin prices is the biggest reason for their initial bull market. To say that this is an economic phenomenon, it is better to say that this is a psychological phenomenon.

The second problem is that the bitcoin bear market has been a long time, and the bitcoin production has been halved. There are also several national currency collapses since last year. Local people prefer Bitcoin, etc., and come to the conclusion of the bull market in the future. First, the conclusion that bitcoin production will be halved will lead to a big increase in bitcoin prices. You can go to see the historical price trend of Bitcoin. The main reason for the increase in bitcoin price is because there are more people with recognition, and the consensus is big. There is not much relationship with the reduction or not.

Then said that the bear market is very long, so in the future, the conclusion of this conclusion is due to people's "fantasy thinking". Based on past experience, the unrelated things are linked to form a causal chain. In the past, the bear market was several years. After that, then the bull market came, so this time will be like this. It’s just that the bull market has something to do with time, and it’s even more impossible to be precise to a certain month. For example, if you go to the turkey every Friday, the turkey will feel that Friday is a good day and you will be happy on Friday. What I don't know, however, is that you will kill them on the Friday of Thanksgiving.

The bear market has been around for a long time. If the bull market is in the future, if it is effective, it will be doubled by them. But the bigger possibility is that Lu Xun said, "There is no way in the world. If there are more people, there will be a way." Years have formed a consensus in the Year of the Ox, and it is indeed possible to create a new bull market.

But in essence, they used time to predict that the bull market is untenable and cannot withstand scrutiny. Since you can't stand the scrutiny, you may collapse at any time.

With regard to Bitcoin, it will rise to 380,000 US dollars. The belief is full and the prospects are beautiful. The specific deduction logic is probably that Bitcoin has become the world's universal value storage scale. They have grown from Bitcoin for 10 years, and the bottom of the price is getting higher and higher, so that the further development of Bitcoin will be a self-evident truth. Now people who believe that Bitcoin will not return to zero are the logic: Bitcoin has undergone numerous zero-tests, but it has become more powerful, and it has been self-evident that the future of Bitcoin will be even more powerful.

In fact, this has fallen into a paradigm of thinking or cage. The great development of Bitcoin in the past 10 years is only a simple summary of the limited years, but logically, the future development of Bitcoin cannot be used as a self-certifying truth. For example, Nokia used to be the overlord of the mobile phone industry, but it does not mean that he will always be the hegemon.

Whether Bitcoin can become a universal value storage standard worldwide depends on the development of Bitcoin technology. Bitcoin is feasible in small-scale currency trials, but it does not mean that it is still practical in large-scale commercial societies around the world. Let's take a simple example. A certain technology is feasible in the laboratory, but it is impossible to use it on a large scale. From Newton's third law of motion, to Apollo 11 using this principle to land on the moon, there are countless technical difficulties to overcome in the middle. Bitcoin is now facing such a dilemma.

In fact, with the expansion of the use of Bitcoin, such drawbacks have become more and more obvious. For example, network congestion is becoming more serious, transaction delays, development of a lightning network, and accusations are too central to gain trust, and where the block is located. The memory is getting bigger and bigger, and the hard forks and the like are caused by the expansion of the user population. If the technology does not improve, these seem to limit the further expansion of the use of Bitcoin.

After nearly 10 years of development of Bitcoin, is technical progress great? I saw the scream of a Bitcoin believer: Bitcoin is so perfect that we don't need to make any changes in the 10 years of birth. I seem to have seen the development of the underlying technology of Bitcoin in the past 10 years in place.

We carefully think about the principles of Bitcoin, decentralization, large-scale collaboration, irreversible, no need for third-party trust machines, and win trust by decentralized sacrifice efficiency. If Bitcoin cannot be technically innovated, Bit The currency will never be able to match the centralized currency in terms of efficiency. And our current paradigm thinking is still the efficiency priority. As for trust, it is far from efficiency.

Even in the anti-inflation value store of Bitcoin's retreat, in view of the fact that the underlying technology of Bitcoin has been in place for 10 years, why do I believe that it will make rapid progress in the next 10 years? In fact, compared to Bitcoin's global value storage scale, I think Bitcoin is more likely to be locked in the use of 100 million people if technology is in place. Now there are 50 million people in the world who use bitcoin. In the future, growth will grow to 100 million people. No more, because technology does not support it, 50 million can reach a consensus, and 100 million may be split. Someone here must say that Bitcoin has not always exceeded its upper limit in the past, but does this mean that there is no upper limit for Bitcoin? 2 horse-drawn horses are faster than a horse, 3 horses are faster than 2 horses, but no more horses are running faster than trains. Here, the problem of the paradigm revolution mentioned above is involved. More, the internal friction has also increased, until it is countered. In fact, Bitcoin is now facing such a problem. 50 million people use Bitcoin to congest it like this. If it is 5 billion people? Does it still crash?

This is still the case in the mainstream world without blocking the active embrace. In fact, bitcoin is the life of the centralized organization. How can they get rid of it, or retreat, "Brother, since you want to pick the big flag, Take more social responsibility, how about paying 33% of the transaction tax?, you can use 100 methods to limit you, really don't believe it.

In a nutshell, Bitcoin rose to $300,000, the pattern was big enough, and the vision was beautiful enough, but hope was really minimal. Therefore, Li Xiao’s development of the currency circle still takes 10 years. It is not pessimistic. I think it is optimistic.

Then the third question, if I can think of this, can those people who think of the dragon and the phoenix not think about this problem? Why do they dare to say this now? I like to be beaten?

I think about it carefully, I have to admire them sincerely, no loss is the people in the dragon and phoenix, all of them are playing with the human master. Imagine, even after a year, the bull market did not come, even after 10 years, the bull market did not come, who remembers them? Remember what can you do? There are many experts who claim to be able to land on Mars in 1999. Is there anyone to investigate their responsibilities afterwards?

They must be savvy: whether the long-term goal can be achieved is not very relevant to the current profit. In the moment, they loudly advertised that the bull market is coming, everyone is buying it, and then the goods in their hands are going out smoothly, and their technology is in place and there is no technology company to live. As for whether the vision can be realized, "When I die, I will control him."

In fact, the value of Bitcoin is still derived from people's belief that it is valuable, and even bitcoin can be super valuable, still derived from people's belief that it will become the world's currency super optimistic expectations. Excluding illegal dark network transactions, Bitcoin still does not receive any valuable support in the real world. This is also the biggest reason why Bitcoin has been repeatedly accused by the mainstream media as a Punjab scam. The biggest logic of buying bitcoin by bitcoin believers is that the use of bitcoin is too small. With the increase in the number of people using the increase in the number of people entering the market, bitcoin must be more and more expensive, relying heavily on the funds of the latecomers. The entry situation, not the value generated by any bitcoin itself.

In his "Irrational Prosperity" published in 2000, Robert Hiller put forward the "naturally occurring Punjab scam", which refers to financial market bubbles that are separated from the fundamentals of the economy, such as A shares that have risen to 10,000 points, such as housing prices. The average price of Beijing is 1 million. I very much agree with this statement. Bitcoin is by no means the "side scam" that the mainstream media said. Although it has fallen by 80%, it is equivalent to the A shares of the Shanghai Composite Index of 10,000 points, or the Beijing house with an average price of 5 million. Even more than nothing.

We have to buy bitcoin, we must understand what we are buying. Accurately, Bitcoin has been developed for 10 years, but Bitcoin and its underlying blockchain technology are still in place, still like an ugly toy, in a very primitive period, from budding to large-scale landing. There is still a long way to go. At present, we still can't see the "singularity approaching".

Having said so many logical things, let's talk about the reality. Since the bitcoin bull market has not come, and the fundamentals of Bitcoin have not improved, then is this wave rising? Is there any logic to buy?

In the currency circle, everyone talks about value investing, and actually uses trend investment. Look at the big trend and buy when the trend is up. When the big trend is down, dare to sell. This wave of rise is due to the unanimous expectation of monetary easing in 2019. Everyone expects the currency to be loose, then buy it, and then it really rises. It is expected that more people will buy, but it is expected self-realization. But if you want to attract more people and continue to rise, you must also look at the improvement of fundamentals. After all, if there is no fundamental support, it is expected to be self-destructive. At that time, "the moment of fireworks explosion is beautiful and beautiful", but can you escape? Don't overestimate yourself, after all, every driver feels his driving level is in the top 30%.

Therefore, with a certain proportion of wealth that can be tolerated, slowly set aside, keep an expectation for the new world, wait for its ambiguity, or it will eventually prove to be just a way for society to go, then when we A little contribution to social exploration.

If someone is in the name of "Investing in the Holy Grail, the future of the bull market", you can't help thinking about Stud, think about the above questions first. Remember, what we really believe must be the substantial advancement in technology, from the landing of killer applications, from the maturity of business models.

In addition, remember the words that Hayek once said, to the effect: "Those roads covered with flowers and good roads may also be a road to slavery!"

(End of the article)