QKL123 market analysis | long and short double-explosive bitcoin test for 9,000 US dollars, the market uncertainty increased (0729)

Abstract: In the early morning, the BTC test for 9,000 US dollars failed, and short-term double-explosion was staged, and the market uncertainty increased. Recently, attention has been paid to the influence of the news. It is not ruled out that the possibility of continuing to explore the $9,000 will be beneficial. The short-term trend will be adjusted for the shock of time-shifting space. In the long-term, the upward trend of the BTC shock has not been destroyed.

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According to QKL123 statistics, on July 29, 2019, the total market value of the global Token market was 1,895.577 billion yuan, the total market value of 24 hours increased or decreased by +1.70%, the total turnover of 24 hours was 336.355 billion yuan, and the total turnover of 24 hours changed – 5.42%, 24-hour market activity has decreased. The market value of BTC accounts for 64.20%, and the market risk aversion is still high.

At 1100, the top ten crypto assets in the market value (excluding USDT), LTC has the largest increase in 24 hours (+2.14%), XLM has the largest decline in 24 hours (-0.06%); BTC has risen and fallen +1.68% in 24 hours, ETH 24 hours Up and down +2.07%. The USDT rose by -0.09% for 24 hours, and the 24-hour turnover rate was 1.60%. The 24-hour off-exchange capital inflows decreased slightly.

At 12 o'clock, the Babbitt Composite Index 8BTCCI reported 14341.73 points, 24 hours up and down to +1.69%; alternative.me sentiment index was 19, slightly higher than yesterday (16), but the market performance is still extremely fearful. Today's Bitcoin's Google search trend is slightly lower than yesterday, lower than the average of the past seven days.

Analyst's point of view: BTC tested 9000 US dollars in the morning, short-term double-double burst, the main force continued to wash, the market uncertainty increased; recently affected by the news, the fund risk aversion is not reduced, the risk and benefits coexist before the profit is exhausted .

First, the spot BTC market

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24H highest: ¥67185.08 24H minimum: ¥64154.98

In the early hours of the morning, BTC dropped to a minimum of 9165 US dollars, and tried to find 9000 US dollars. After that, it quickly pulled back and made a small upswing, and short-term double-explosion. At present, the willingness of the BTC multi-military to continue to attack is not strong. It is possible to continue to explore the $9000 in the near future, but the market is more likely to turn around.

Fund face

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As of 14:03, BTC's net outflow today was 48.3 million yuan. Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow of 163.45 million yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net inflow of 157.14 million yuan, the middle (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net The outflow of 220.92 million yuan, the small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 245.98 million yuan. The market will not reduce the willingness to ship, mainly based on small and medium-sized singles.

2. Fundamentals 4 Next block reward halved countdown estimate: 275 days

At present, the BTC's total network computing power is 69.38 EH/s, which is lower than yesterday (73.69 EH/s), still close to the historical high point, and the long-term upward trend has not changed. Yesterday, the number of active addresses on the BTC chain was 505,100, a rebound from the previous day (586,300), close to the low point of six months, and the possibility of market changes is increasing. Yesterday, the number of BTC coins destroyed was 1.958 million (historically smaller), which was significantly lower than the previous day (437.31 million). In the near future, no whales concentrated on selling pressure, and the long-term upward trend has not been destroyed.

Second, the spot ETH market

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24H highest: ¥1505.96 24H minimum: ¥1426.04

Today, ETH followed the BTC to test support, the lowest to detect $ 198, and continue to link BTC for a short time. The ETH/BTC transaction pair re-stacked 0.022 BTC, and the phased bottom was basically confirmed. Until BTC stabilizes, ETH is likely to be relatively strong.

Fund face

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As of 14:01, ETH's net outflow of funds today was 287.93 million yuan. Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow of 32.58 million yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net outflow of 26.94 million yuan, in the single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net Outflow of 20.57 million yuan, small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 85.7 million yuan. The market will not reduce the willingness to ship, mainly based on small orders.

2. Fundamentals

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Observing the Midu statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour ETH DApp was slightly reduced. Among them, the pledge of DAI's 24-hour total flow (4734 ETH) increased or decreased by -4.18% compared with yesterday, the trading platform IDEX's 24-hour total flow (2297 ETH) increased or decreased by -0.41% compared with yesterday; the game encryption hero's 24-hour active user The number (2638) increased or decreased by +2.25% compared with yesterday; the number of 24-hour transactions (796) of the stable currency Paxos Standard increased or decreased by -1.00% compared with yesterday.

Third, the spot LTC market

8 24H highest: ¥632.37 24H minimum: ¥589.11

At 6 o'clock today, LTC quickly dropped to $83 and was quickly pulled back. After that, the amount of attack can shrink, and it is currently maintained at around $90. The performance of the LTC/BTC trading pair is similar to that of its market. It re-ranks the 0.0094 BTC and continues the fishtail market. It is expected to continue to rise in the near future.

Fund face

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As of 14:13, the net outflow of LTC funds today was 118.41 million yuan. Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow is 51.54 million yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net outflow is 14.02 million yuan, and the medium single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net The inflow of 13.17 million yuan, the small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 66.03 million yuan. There are major differences in the market, mainly based on small orders.

2. Fundamentals

10 Next block reward halved countdown estimate: 7 days

At present, LTC's total network computing power is 501.59 TH/s, which is higher than yesterday (461.25 TH/s), close to the historical high point, and the long-term upward trend has not changed. Yesterday, the number of active addresses on the LTC chain was 66,300, a slight decrease from the previous day (68,400), lower than the average of two months. Yesterday, the number of LTC coins destroyed was 588.72 (small historical value), which was significantly lower than the previous day (275.78 million). There was no large whale concentrated selling action outside the field, and the long-term uptrend was not destroyed.

Fourth, the spot EOS market

11 24H highest: ¥30.32 24H minimum: ¥27.65

In the early hours of the morning, EOS was inserted into a long needle of 3.89 US dollars, and then quickly pulled up to 4.39 US dollars. At present, there is a slight decline, and the main direction is BTC. At present, the EOS/BTC transaction pair still accounts for around 0.00045, and there is a downward trend for a short time, but it is expected to continue to rise after the market is stabilized.

Fund face

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As of 14:17, EOS's net capital inflow today was 37.71 million yuan. Among them, the net inflow of oversized single (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) is 15.84 million yuan, the net outflow of large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) is 5.76 million yuan, and the net is between 50,000 yuan and 300,000 yuan. Inflow of 5.18 million yuan, small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net inflow of 22.45 million yuan. The willingness to open positions in the market has increased, and most of them have been built with small orders.

2. Fundamentals

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Looking at the Midu statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour EOS DApp was slightly reduced. Among them, the number of 24-hour active users of entertainment games Texas Hold'em (1,245) increased or decreased by -0.80% compared with yesterday; the 24-hour total flow of trading platform DEXEOS (130,967 EOS) increased or decreased by +0.00% compared with yesterday.

V. Analyst strategy

1. Long line (1-3 years)

At present, BTC is in the short-term partial adjustment stage, and the mad cow market may come in the next one to two years, and it can be added on a dip. The smart contract platform ETH 2.0 project is in the process of advancement and is expected to step out of the independent market in the future. The BTC trading pair of the ALC and DPoS faucet EOS is also at a low level during the year and can be properly dip.

2. Midline (1-3 months)

The short-term shocks will adjust the situation, and the encrypted assets will be linked to each other. At present, the proportion of BTCs continues to decrease, and the configuration can be biased towards ETH, LTC and EOS.

3. Short-term (1-3 days)

In a short period of time, the uncertainty of BTC is not reduced. The resistance is 10,000 USD and the support is 9,000 USD. The amplitudes of ETH, LTC and EOS are relatively large. See the direction of BTC.

14 Note: Encrypted assets are high-risk assets. This document is for decision-making purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.