QKL123 market analysis | good times but the upswing is weak, why? (0801)

Abstract: In the past 24 hours, it seems that the news is in the left and right market: Ledger took the lead in launching physical delivery futures last night, and the short-term BTC attacked 10,000 US dollars. In the early morning, although the US interest rate cut was good but not as expected, the short-term BTC slowly fell back. Recently, the willingness of the BTC to attack is not strong, and the possibility of exploring the $9000 is increasing, but the downside is not large. In recent days, the risk of market selling still exists, paying attention to avoiding and grasping the opportunity of oversold.

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According to QKL123 statistics, on August 01, 2019, the total market value of the global Token market was 1921.193 billion yuan, the total market value of 24 hours increased or decreased by +2.52%, the total turnover of 24 hours was 363.714 billion yuan, and the total turnover of 24 hours changed + 15.71%, 24-hour market activity has increased. The market value of BTC accounted for 64.51%, which was higher than yesterday (64.09%), and the market risk aversion was still high.

At 12 o'clock, among the top ten encrypted assets in the market value (excluding USDT), LTC had the largest increase in 24 hours (+5.38%), BCH had the largest decline in 24 hours (-2.16%); BTC rose by +2.77% in 24 hours, ETH 24 hours Up and down +0.95%. The USDT rose by -0.29% for 24 hours, with a 24-hour turnover rate of 2.38%, and a slight decrease in 24-hour off-exchange capital inflows.

The Babbitt Composite Index 8BTCCI reported 14591.19 points, up 24 hours to +2.15%; alternative.me sentiment index was 57, significantly higher than yesterday (31), but the market performance changed from fear to greed. Today's Bitcoin's Google search trend has increased slightly from yesterday, close to the seven-day average.

Analyst's point of view: The US interest rate cut in the early morning was good but not as expected. The short-term BTC fell back after 10,000 US dollars. Recently, the risk of the collapse of the BTC chain on the number of days of destruction has not been lifted, paying attention to avoiding risks and possible bargain-hunting opportunities.

First, the spot BTC market

2 24H highest: ¥70125.33 24H minimum: ¥68490.09

Yesterday evening, the BTC multi-military began to attack 10,000 US dollars, but the amount can be slightly insufficient. In the morning, the highest reached 10,155 US dollars, and then fell back, and there is a tendency to continue to decline in a short time. Recently, BTC is likely to continue to explore the $ 9,000, and the whale seems to have taken action recently to properly circumvent the possible risk of selling.

Fund face

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As of 14:04, BTC's net outflow of funds today was 30,216,700 yuan, which was reversed from yesterday. Among them, the overflow of large single (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net income of 17.4333 million yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net outflow of 18.04 million yuan, between the single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net The inflow of 156,658,800 yuan, the small outflow (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 18,622,100 yuan. There are major differences in the market, and small orders have more positions.

2. Fundamentals

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Next block reward halved countdown estimate: 270 days

At present, the BTC's total network computing power is 72.21EH/s, which is slightly higher than yesterday (70.10EH/s), close to the historical high point, and the long-term upward trend has not changed. Yesterday, the number of active addresses on the BTC chain was 745,300, which was a rebound from the previous few days, close to the average of three months. Today's currency day destruction is 439.85 (historically smaller) compared to yesterday (614.74 million). The number of BTC coins destroyed on the 29th (262 million) is the amount released since the mine disaster at the end of last year. Risk of selling.

Second, the spot ETH market

5 24H highest: ¥1514.56 24H minimum: ¥1471.89

Yesterday to today, ETH rushed from around $210 to $220, and then quickly fell back, short-term pinning to $210. The ETH/BTC trading pair fell from 0.022 BTC to 0.021 BTC, close to this year's low.

Fund face

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As of 14:02, ETH's net outflow of funds today was 1983.45 million yuan, which was reversed from yesterday. Among them, the large inflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net inflow of 15.9024 million yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net outflow of 11.7245 million yuan, the middle (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net Outflow of 528.94 million yuan, small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 14962.90 million yuan. The market is dominated by small orders.

2. Fundamentals

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Observing the Midu statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour ETH DApp has increased. Among them, the pledge of DAI's 24-hour total flow (14,192 ETH) increased or decreased by +1.06% compared with yesterday, the trading platform IDEX's 24-hour total flow (2,312 ETH) increased or decreased by +3.81% compared with yesterday; the game encryption hero's 24-hour active user The number (2,413) increased or decreased by +1.81% compared with yesterday; the number of 24-hour transactions (1,106) of the stable currency Paxos Standard increased or decreased by -0.54% compared with yesterday.

Third, the spot LTC market

8 24H highest: ¥688.74 24H minimum: ¥664.37

LTC started to rise from yesterday's $90, but was blocked at $100, and then shrunk. At the same time, the LTC/BTC trading pair went up from 0.0094 BTC to 0.0099 BTC and then fell back to 0.0097 BTC, which was relatively strong. This may be related to the halving of recent block rewards. It is not possible to continue to strengthen.

Fund face

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As of 14:00, the net outflow of LTC funds today was 111.2862 million yuan, an increase from yesterday (580.684 million yuan). Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow of 47.876 million yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net inflow of 10.22 million yuan, in the single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net The inflow of 5,77,000 yuan, the small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 79.456 million yuan. There are still differences in the market, mainly based on small orders.

2. Fundamentals

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Next block reward halved countdown estimate: 5 days

At present, LTC's total network computing power is 427.46 TH/s, which is slightly smaller than yesterday (446.07 TH/s), close to the historical high point, and the long-term upward trend has not changed. Yesterday, the number of active addresses on the LTC chain was 78,000, a slight decrease from the previous day (7.89 million), lower than the average of two months. Yesterday, the number of LTC coins destroyed (1627.83, historical normal value), significantly increased from the previous day (843.23 million), short-term LTC linkage BTC.

Fourth, the spot EOS market

11 24H maximum: ¥30.95 24H minimum: ¥29.52

Yesterday, EOS linked BTC up, reaching a maximum of 4.447 US dollars, then quickly fell back, the lowest hit 4.196 US dollars, a short-term decline when there is heavy volume, the current rebound. At present, the EOS/BTC trading pair oscillated around 0.00043, and after the downside, it gained support and rebounded for a short time.

Fund face

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As of 14:00, EOS's net outflow of funds today was 2002.18 million yuan, a decrease from yesterday (669.83 million yuan). Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow of 1,384,400 yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net inflow of 1,052,200 yuan, in the middle (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net The outflow of 12.7583 million yuan, the small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 6.931 million yuan. The market is less divergent, with most of the short positions being reduced.

2. Fundamentals

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Observing the Midu statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour EOS DApp was slightly reduced.

Among them, the number of 24-hour active users of entertainment game Texas Hold'em (1,257) increased or decreased by -0.16% compared with yesterday; the 24-hour total flow of trading platform DEXEOS (104,271 EOS) increased or decreased by -4.52% compared with yesterday.

V. Analyst strategy

1. Long line (1-3 years)

BTC is in the short-term partial adjustment stage. The mad cow market may come in the next one to two years. The risk of selling pressure in the recent days of currency demolition has not been lifted. The overall situation is mainly wait-and-see, which can reduce the position and increase the position. The smart contract platform ETH 2.0 project is in the process of advancement and is expected to step out of the independent market in the future. The BTC trading pair of the altcoin leader LTC and the DPoS leader EOS is also at a low level during the year. Currently, BTC is the main link.

2. Midline (1-3 months)

The situation of short-term shock adjustment has not been destroyed. Recently, the market has the possibility of sucking up the market, and can reduce the position and oversold the position.

3. Short-term (1-3 days)

Short-term BTC downside risks increase, but the downside is limited, and can be used to reduce positions and oversold positions. The BTC resistance is $10,000 and the support is $9,000. The ETH, LTC and EOS amplitudes are relatively large, depending on the direction of the BTC.

14 Note: Encrypted assets are high-risk assets. This document is for decision-making purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.