The era of negative interest rates is coming, can BTC keep up with the pace of gold?

This weekend, New York gold futures closed at a new high for more than six years. In the core area of ​​the Eurozone – Germany, the rate of blood loss is accelerating, and the market is worried about the German economy, which is fully reflected in the trend of German government bond yields. On August 2, Germany’s 30-year bond yields showed negative interest rates for the first time. At this point, German government bonds have fallen into negative interest rates. In the face of an increasingly difficult economic situation, on August 2, the ECB president has given a strong hint of interest rate cuts. In September, the ECB will adopt a more aggressive asset purchase program.

The further expansion of European negative interest rate assets continues to push up the dollar. The high dollar is a strong call for non-US homes to demand import demand. The high dollar is also a blow to the United States to cut the trade deficit. Obviously, under this circumstance, the US government aiming at reducing the trade deficit will continue to fight MYZ, and even the US Congress is brainstorming about the taxation of foreign capital inflows, thereby weakening the attractiveness of the dollar.

From the perspective of global deflation, the potential measures of the European Central Bank and the US dollar situation, the Fed is bound to cut interest rates further. This is not vague, and it is very clear that it cannot even rule out the possibility of returning to zero interest rates or even negative interest rates in the next two years. This will be further reduced by the interest rate levels of major countries around the world.


BTC has already gone out of the trend of 5 consecutive yang, but the transaction volume still has no signs of enlargement. At present, it has already reached the pressure level of the previous high point around 11,000 USD. The wait-and-see atmosphere is relatively strong, and there is not a large amount of funds to participate in the transaction. Light, the sustainability of the rise may be limited, the MACD gold fork quickly diverges upwards, has not yet entered the long range above the zero axis, there may be two kinds of trends, one is to directly enlarge the positive line to break through the pressure level around 11,000 US dollars, forming a The double bottom structure, the other is still in the lower range of activities, mainly with triangular oscillation or box shock, no directional choice, it is expected that in the near future, the support of the middle rail will be around $10,200. If the quantity can keep up, then the follow-up probability will rise to 11,000 US dollars. I personally think that the pressure of 11,000 US dollars is difficult to break through. Pay attention to the support of 10,200 US dollars. If it falls below, it will return to the support of 9,000 US dollars. Pay attention to the risk. Pay close attention to whether there will be panic selling in LTC, and if it does, it will have a negative impact on BTC.


The trend of ETH is not as strong as that of BTC. In the five days of BTC rebound, the target's rise is very small, and the volume is still shrinking. I believe that it will soon be ushered in the direction after the amount of land, and now it is still 225. The pressure line of the US dollar squats, the macd indicator weak region Jinchao, has not yet reached the strong area above the zero axis, pay attention to observe whether the subsequent volume can break through the important pressure of 225 US dollars, if not, personally think that the target will still be at 190- Within the range of $225, the shock was consolidating, and it could be low-sucking around $190. If the volume exceeded $225, it would be bullish to $260, and once again fell below 5 antennas to lighten up, and fell below $190 to wait and see.


BCH is still in the rebound structure, breaking through the high point of the previous rebound, but the volume of the cooperation is not ideal and has been smashed back. There is no volume in the whole rebound. At present, the target has been running along the 5 antennas, and should be vigilant. Be wary of possible downsizing and violent escalation at any time. If there is a quick kill, you should pay attention to leaving the game. The rebound may end. If there is a violent rise, the individual thinks it is a good time to lighten the position because the main force will not be at the top. To borrow chips, buy them and buy them underneath. It is not a good phenomenon to suddenly increase the volume. Unless it is an important pressure level, the volume is to lighten up.


BNB has already fallen below 5 antennas and maintained yesterday's opinion. We do not deny the long-term value of the target, but we are not optimistic about the trend for the next period of time. At most, we will re-suck 60 antennas and continue to down. Operation, the averaging system keeps the short position, the macd indicator is glued after repeated repeated gold forks in the weak area, no divergence direction, the indicator has a strong pointing meaning above the zero axis, the target re-station back to 60 antennas and makes The 60-antenna head can only get rid of the current downward trend. Personally, the low point of $24 cannot be effectively supported, and will continue to test. The next support level is around 21 US dollars, paying attention to risks.

The author's point of view is only used for learning communication, not as an investment recommendation, and does not constitute an investment basis!

This article data source: QKL123