Blockchain Weekly | One analysis is fiercer than the tiger, ups and downs look at Trump

Guide

Trade friction seems to have no end, global political and economic situation is turbulent; gold is rising strongly; since May 2019, trade friction has intensified. At the end of July, the Federal Reserve announced a rate cut, while the fourth round of BTC bull market has also opened, safe haven and value storage. The features are displayed to the fullest.

Summary

Topic: The global political and economic situation is turbulent, and safe-haven demand drives BTC prices up. From the Cyprus financial crisis in 2013 to the current trade friction, BTC's hedging attributes are highlighted, and the current trade friction is likely to become the booster of BTC's fourth price up cycle. Because BTC has significant advantages in terms of scarcity, portability, severability, verifiability, etc., it has a value reserve function and is called “digital gold”. And the global economic instability has intensified, the price of gold and BTC will rise in stages, so BTC as a "digital gold" attribute is gradually recognized. At the end of July, the Fed’s interest rate cut triggered a “domino” effect, and the international financial market ushered in a looser monetary environment, which also provided favorable conditions for the BTC to rise.

Quotes: Strong rebound, constantly breaking through the pressure. This week, the total market value of digital certificates was US$285.2 billion, up 3.2%; the average daily turnover was US$50.26 billion, down 10.3%; the average daily turnover was 18.4%, down 1.5%. The current price of BTC is US$10,518, a decrease of 6.6%. The average daily turnover of BTC this week is US$15.6 billion, and the average daily turnover rate is 8.9%. The current price of ETH is 217.9 US dollars, a decrease of 0.8%; the average daily trading volume of ETH is 5.8 billion US dollars, and the average daily turnover rate is 25.5%. This week, the exchange's BTC balance was 880,400, a decrease of 0.38 million; the exchange's ETH balance was 9.01 million, an increase of 300,000. In the BICS secondary industry, the market value of payment settlement increased significantly, and the number of non-bank financial certificates declined significantly.

Output and heat: The difficulty of BTC mining remains unchanged, and the computing power is doubled. The difficulty of mining this week is 9.014T, which is unchanged from last week. The average daily power of this week is 71.63EH/s, up 2.20EH/s from last week. The difficulty of mining this week is 2186, which is 5.23 higher than last week. The average daily power is 176.6TH/S, which is 1.4TH/S higher than last week.

Industry: Countries have begun to make new progress in the supervision of blockchains and certificates. Philippine United Bank launched a stable pass PHX linked to the Philippine peso; the Indian crypto community is in contact with elected members, calling on Indian officials to reflect on existing drafts; Slovenia will punish individuals who engage in crypto-pass mining and trading activities without paying taxes; The Kenyan government is using technologies such as DLT to track food safety.

Risk warning: regulatory policy risk, market trend risk

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1

Feature: Symphony of Gold and BTC Digital Gold

Trade friction seems to have no end, global political and economic situation is turbulent; gold is rising strongly; since May 2019, trade friction has intensified. At the end of July, the Federal Reserve announced a rate cut, while the fourth round of BTC bull market has also opened, safe haven and value storage. The features are displayed to the fullest.

1.1 Safe-haven demand pushes BTC prices up

The global political and economic situation is turbulent, and safe-haven demand is driving the price of BTC. In March 2013, Cyprus, a small country in southern Europe, imposed tax on resident deposits, causing residents to panic and erupting into a financial crisis. In order to prevent the outflow of domestic capital, Cyprus imposes many restrictions on the capital use of citizens.

The BTC has made it possible for the private capital of Cyprus to leave the country. According to data provided by Mt.Gox, a BTC trading website at the time, the value of a BTC on March 5, 2013 was approximately $40, and by March 30, the value was over $92, an increase of 130%. At this time, BTC is in the second price cycle (November 2011 to August 2015), and the outbreak of the Cyprus financial crisis has objectively played a role in promoting the rise of BTC prices.

Trade friction seems to have no end, or become a booster for the BTC bull market. Trump announced on the morning of May 6 that the tariff on 200 billion US dollars of goods will be raised from 10% to 25% from May 11. On May 10, Trump threatened to impose tariffs on another $300 billion of goods. The price of BTC has risen steadily, and the BTC hedging property has been highlighted.

On August 1, 2019, Trump announced that it will impose a 10% tariff on all US$300 million worth of US exports from September 1, 2019, which will also boost the price of BTC.

1.2 The attributes of BTC Digital Gold are gradually confirmed. In the “BTC Value Interval Measurement Based on Value Reserve Valuation Method – Five of the Quest for Valuation Valuation”, we compare BTC, Gold and the main characteristics according to the value characteristics. French currency. In general, BTC has significant advantages in terms of scarcity, portability, severability, verifiability, etc., and has good durability. Although BTC is currently relatively inferior in general acceptance and stability, With the gradual maturity of the BTC market, the public's acceptance of BTC is growing rapidly, and its price volatility is gradually decreasing. BTC has great potential to develop into a good value reserve, so BTC is also known as “digital gold”. ".

In addition to the characteristics of the BTC itself, the instinct of capital-benefit and hedge has more to explain that BTC, like gold, has the property of hedging. The global economic instability has intensified, and the prices of gold and BTC will rise in stages. After the outbreak of the Cyprus financial crisis in March 2013, the price of gold, which was originally in a downward trend, rose by 0.61% against the trend, while the price of BTC rose by 130%. After the trade friction occurred, the international gold price that had been stable since July 2018 continued to rise in May and June and broke through the $1400 mark. Among them, June 28 was 8.76% higher than May 31 and 6.48% in 2019. At the same time, BTC also surged from US$85,574 to US$12,407, an increase of 44.70%, and an increase of 258.82% in 2019. Both BTC and Gold are responsible for the global capital hedging function, which further supports the attributes of BTC “Digital Gold”.

1.3 The loose monetary environment reserves sufficient “ammunition” for the bull market

The Fed cut interest rates, expected to benefit, the stock market fell, BTC rose slightly. The US Federal Reserve announced on July 31 "preventive interest rate cuts": the federal funds rate target range was lowered by 25 basis points to 2% to 2.25%, which is the first time the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates since December 2008. Within 48 hours, the US dollar index hit a high of 98.9418; the Dow and the S&P 500 hit their biggest one-day drop since May this year. On the same day, BTC rose slightly by 2%, and the closing price was about $9,950.

The Fed’s interest rate cut triggered a “domino” effect, and the international financial market ushered in a looser monetary environment, which also provided favorable conditions for the BTC to rise. After the Fed announced a rate cut, on August 1, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.50%. In addition, the central banks of Brazil, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia have followed the Fed's interest rate cuts. Before the Fed, countries that announced interest rate cuts in 2019 were India, Malaysia, New Zealand, Australia, Russia, South Korea, Indonesia, and Turkey. The international financial market generally ushers in a more relaxed monetary environment. In theory, it can bring abundant capital flow to the BTC that is in the fourth round of price up cycle, and further consolidate the current good trend.

2

Quote: Strong rebound, continuous breakthrough pressure

2.1 Overall market: strong rebound

The total market value of digital passes this week was $285.2 billion, an increase of about 3.2% from last week's $9.9 billion. After a small correction last week, the market ushered in a rebound this week, maintaining a volatile upswing.

The average daily trading volume of the digital pass market was US$50.26 billion, down 10.3% from last week, and the average daily turnover rate was 18.4%, down 1.5% from last week.

This week, the exchange's BTC balance was 880,400, a decrease of 0.38 million from last week. The exchange's ETH balance was 9.01 million, an increase of 300,000 from last week. The exchange's BTC balance was slightly reduced, the ETH balance increased significantly, and the selling pressure on the market increased.

The USDT market value was $4.03 billion, a decrease of $6.77 million from last week. At present, the enthusiasm for funds entering the market has dropped, and USDT has almost no premium.

2.2 Core Pass: BTC stands out

The current price of BTC is 10,518 US dollars, with a weekly increase of 6.6% and a monthly decline of 12.1%. The average daily volume of BTC this week was $15.6 billion, with an average daily turnover of 8.9%. The BTC fluctuated and rose this week, outperforming other major circulation certificates.

The current price of ETH is 217.9 US dollars, with a weekly decline of 0.8% and a monthly decline of 28.1%. The average daily trading volume of ETH this week was 5.8 billion US dollars, and the average daily turnover rate was 25.5%. ETH had a large decline in the previous period, and it fell slightly this week.

EOS is currently at $4.19, down 9.6% for the week and down 31.4% for the month. The average daily trading volume of EOS this week was 1.6 billion US dollars, and the average daily turnover rate was 40.0%. EOS was oversold in the early period and this week was dominated by sideways adjustments.

The current price of XRP is 0.31 US dollars, with a weekly decline of 3.4% and a monthly decline of 23.5%. The average daily volume of XRP this week was $900 million, with an average daily turnover of 6.8%.

The monthly volatility of the main pass was significantly reduced this week. The monthly volatility of BTC was 27.2%, down 8.2% from last week. The ethical volatility was 29.3%, down 4.2% from last week. The EOS monthly volatility was 33.9%. The decrease was 3.8% from last week; the XRP monthly volatility was 21.2%, down 5.0% from last week.

2.3 BICS industry: the market value of payment settlement rises significantly

In the secondary industry of BICS (Blockchain Industry Classification Standard), the market share of the payment and settlement industry increased from 72.8% to 73.6%. From the perspective of the change rate of market capitalization, the market value of retail e-commerce, physical assets, public services, and non-bank financial industries accounted for a relatively high growth rate, up 27.8%, 22.9%, 17.55%, and 8.0% respectively over the previous week; The market share of optimization, information technology and supply chain declined more significantly, down 16.6%, 20.4% and 33.3% from last week.

The BICS secondary industry with a relatively large increase in the number of passes this week is professional services, stable certificates and wallets & transactions, which increased by 30%, 27.3 and 25.7% respectively compared with last week; BICS with a significant decline in the number of passes this week The secondary industries were non-bank financial and physical assets, down 33.3% from last week.

2.4 Market View: Shock rebound, market trend shift

In the recent down market, BTC showed obvious anti-falling property. This week, BTC performed better than other major circulation certificates. As BTC continued to rebound and break through the resistance level, subsequent major circulation certificates may lead the next round of market.

The bull market is accelerating, breaking through new highs or not far off. Compared with the previous round of bull market, this round of market seems to have signs of acceleration. The market's double bottoming and breakthrough of 70% of the previous high point only used the previous round of 1/3 and 1/2 of the bull market respectively. If the market continues to press This evolution, not far from the new high.

The callback can be gradually added. In the long run, the quality pass has a large imagination, and it is still in the early stage of the bull market. The callback is a rare opportunity to increase the position. Investors can do a good job of asset allocation based on their own situation.

3

Output and heat: BTC mining difficulty remains unchanged, computing power double

The difficulty of BTC mining remains unchanged, and the BTC and ETH calculations have rebounded significantly. The difficulty of mining this week is 9.014T, which remains unchanged. The average daily power of this week is 71.63EH/s, up 2.20EH/s from last week. The difficulty of mining this week is 2186, which is 5.23 higher than last week. The force is 176.6TH/S, which is 1.4TH/S higher than last week.

This week, Google Trends's Bitcoin entry search heat was 12, a slight decrease compared to last week, and the Ethereum entry search heat was 7, which was slightly lower than last week.

4

Industry News: Countries have begun to make new progress in the supervision of blockchain and pass

4.1 Philippine United Bank launched a stable pass PHX linked to the Philippine peso

According to Fxstreet, UnionBank has launched a stable pass, PHX, linked to the Philippine peso, becoming the first financial institution in the country to launch its own pass. In addition, it is reported that the financial institution has completed the first encrypted transaction. Arvie de Vera, senior vice president of the bank, commented: "PHX is a stable value storage, exchange medium, and a programmable certificate with automatic execution logic."

4.2 The Indian encryption community is in contact with elected members and calls on Indian officials to reflect on existing drafts.

According to Bitcoin.com, since the Indian Ministry of Finance issued an encryption report and a draft bill prohibiting encryption, the Indian encryption community is increasing its influence and calling on the government to actively monitor the encryption certificate. Nischal Shetty, CEO of Wazirx, a local Indian encryption exchange, said the encryption community has been trying to get the government to understand the benefits of encryption, but the government's flawed encrypted reports have never considered community input. Now the entire Indian encryption community is coming together and the situation is even harder. At the same time, Nischal Shetty said that the community is in contact with Indian elected members, hoping that they can listen to the community and understand the shortcomings of the current report, that is, it does not even classify encryption as assets, utilities or securities.

4.3 Slovenia will punish individuals who are engaged in crypto-pass mining and trading activities without paying taxes

According to STA, the Slovenian financial management department informed the media that the agency is working to investigate and punish individuals who are engaged in crypto-pass mining or trading activities without paying taxes. The agency cited an example of a miner who had to pay a tax of 100,000 euros after the undeclared activity of the miner was discovered.

4.4 The Kenyan government is using technology such as DLT to track food safety

According to BTCMANAGER, the Kenyan government is seeking to integrate distributed ledger technology (DLT), artificial intelligence (AI) and other new technologies into its food supply chain ecosystem to ensure food safety.