Breaking the "7" on the CNY, the BTC is rising, is it an inevitable cause and effect, or is it an accidental coincidence?

On August 5th, it was supposed to be the day when the Litecoin was halved, and LTC was robbed of bitcoin. In the morning, both offshore and onshore RMB broke “7”, Hong Kong stocks plummeted, and gold prices rose. When people wondered why the renminbi dipped, Bitcoin was leaping forward, and it was strong all the way. The intraday gain was close to 9%. Is it coincidence, or is Bitcoin really a safe haven?

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Affected by the US tariff hazard, at 9:20 on the morning of August 5, the US exchange rate against the offshore RMB rose sharply, breaking through the barrier of 7 in one fell swoop. Since then, it has continued to rise, reaching a maximum of 7.1092. Currently, it is temporarily reported at 7.0804. The increase reached 1.5664%.

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Shortly after the offshore RMB plunged, the onshore renminbi subsequently broke at 7:40, and the US dollar was temporarily reported to the onshore renminbi at 7.0287. The intraday gain also exceeded 1%.

Although Zhou Xiaochuan, the former governor of the People’s Bank of China, said earlier that he does not have to pay too much attention to the so-called integers, “7” does not necessarily have to be regarded as the bottom line of the exchange rate. China still insists on the exchange rate determination mechanism based on market supply and demand, and does not have to go through the integer mark. The principle of changing the exchange rate formation mechanism, but in the eyes of investors, "7" is still an important barrier that has not been broken for 10 years. After breaking the "7" in the morning, the news quickly occupied the headlines of the major financial media.

At the same time as the renminbi depreciated sharply, the Hong Kong stock market HSI closed lower by 1.63%, and then the decline widened to 3%, approaching 26,000 points. Gold, a safe-haven asset, oscillated upward. Domestic futures Shanghai Gold (a common name for the delayed delivery of Au (T+D) on the Shanghai Gold Exchange) rose 3.89%, temporarily reported at 333.70 yuan / gram. International gold also rose slightly today, with today's highest price at $1,465.62 per ounce.

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For the cryptocurrency industry, the focus of this morning is undoubtedly Bitcoin. As bitcoin is accepted as a value store by more and more people, the theory of digital gold has also been recognized by more people. Strong risk aversion seems to be an important boost to Bitcoin's sharp rise in the morning. BTC started from 8 o'clock today, rising from 10934USDT. At 11 o'clock, it hit a high of 11624.50USDT, temporarily reporting 11530.5USDT, and the 24-hour increase reached 8.39% . Interestingly, the renminbi has fallen sharply, bitcoin has risen sharply, and USDT has not fluctuated significantly. At present, the price on the OTC is 6.94, but it is negatively relative to the renminbi.

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Many practitioners in the encryption industry have unanimously posted the renminbi “7” and bitcoin two K-line charts on social media, establishing a direct causal link between the two.

The cryptocurrency market maker B2C2 said on Twitter that (for the rise of Bitcoin) the break of the "7" by the renminbi may be the most important macro factor. The weakening of the renminbi has brought deflationary risks to the global economy. To avoid strong emotions, investors will be bearish on the Asian foreign exchange market, bullish gold and bitcoin.

The big V on Weibo can't help but start shouting:

"Historical moment! The RMB exchange rate broke 7!!! The currency circle was a big plus."

Finance columnist Xiao Lei made a photo on Weibo and said that Bitcoin can safely…

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Of course, many people do not recognize the direct correlation between Bitcoin and the RMB. The cryptocurrency trader AlbertTheKing believes that the long-term correlation between BTC and CNY is 0; (two events today) occur simultaneously =! Mutual cause and effect . The chart he posted also shows that the correlation between RMB and BTC is always around zero.

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Trader Larry also said on Twitter that you are now thinking about the RMB and Bitcoin and contacting them.

Primitive Ventures founding partner Dovey Wan said in an article in early July that Bitcoin is not currently a safe-haven asset. She believes that bitcoin prices do not have any significant correlation with high-risk assets (such as stocks) or low-risk assets (such as national debt) in the traditional financial world. There is no positive correlation, and there is no negative correlation. Within the correlation interval below plus or minus 0.2.

“And sensitive to macroeconomic signals relative to other financial assets, Bitcoin has long been in an independent parallel world . Many macroeconomic signals are over-interpreted by many speculative people, such as the Iranian crisis, the Lira crisis, etc., reflecting the real There may be no small fluctuations in the price curve. The independence of Bitcoin's correlation can be an advantage in asset allocation at best, and it cannot be a safe-haven advantage globally."

Is it a coincidence or a cause and effect? I believe everyone will have their own ideas. But it is undeniable that Bitcoin is becoming an increasingly important part of the global economy.