There is no doubt about Bitcoin's safe-haven properties. Will there be spring in the altcoin?

With the series of major events such as the Fed’s interest rate cut and the renminbi breaking 7, the hedging attributes of assets such as gold and bitcoin are becoming more and more obvious. On Monday, Bitcoin once again broke through the $1,105 mark, and with that, Then its market share (BTC Dominance) soared again. As of press time, the BTC Dominance indicator has reached 67.6%, and the key ratio of 70% is getting closer.

This also raises a very important question, what is the maximum BTC Dominance?

And this issue is also related to the fate of the rest of Altcoin.

P1

The biggestist (big pie monotheism) will tell you that BTC Dominance will be infinitely close to 100%

If you have been in contact with the currency circle, you may have heard the word bitcoin maximalist. The Chinese translation can be “big pie monotheism”. Typical representatives are developer Jimmy Song, podcast host Max Keiser, etc., and their common feature is to think Only Bitcoin has an investment value, so in their view, the next BTC Dominance indicator will exceed 85%, or even infinitely close to 100%.

Comments: This conclusion is largely based on the past cycle. In December 2015, the BTC Dominance indicator reached a maximum of 91.5%, while in December 2016 it reached a maximum of 87.57%, but the actual At the time, Ethereum was not recognized as the preferred currency for financing, and with the outbreak of the blockchain token launch, the consensus reached by Ethereum became stronger and stronger. In addition, the bifurcation of BCH and BSV was also separated. Some Bitcoin believers, that is to say, the market share of Bitcoin cannot achieve the glory of the past. According to personal opinion, the BTC Dominance indicator is hard to exceed 80%.

The full hand of the altcoin will tell you that BTC Dominance has reached the top!

Compared with the larger pie monotheists, a larger number of investors, they hold a variety of competitive coins or altcoin, and the proportion of the exchange of the aristocratic coins in the face of the cake is constantly hitting a new low. These investors will tell you:

"The altcoin has already seen the bottom, and now is a good time to copy the bottom of the altcoin! You look at the graphics, the current BTC Dominance is forming a double-top shape…"

P2

Comments: Considering that Bitcoin is largely driven by risk aversion, other competitors and altcoins do not have such attributes, so technical analysis does not necessarily apply. We will witness BTC Dominance continue. Rushing, even over 70% of the key positions…

So, will the Alt season come again?

Personal opinion: Of course, this is almost certain to happen. The blockchain world will not only have bitcoin. Newcomers will be attracted because of the skyrocketing bitcoin, but when they invest in real money, they will compete at a low price. Coins and altcoins will be more attractive, and many speculators on the market will obviously consider this factor and lay out the competition coins in advance. It is important to know that speculative funds in the entire market are still much larger than real use (for example The stored value, etc.), therefore, after the market value of Bitcoin is peaking, the market will usher in a turning point (that is, the Alt season will come), when the mainstream currency will be launched first, and then it will not be A lot of altcoins that survived the exchange and survived.

At the peak, we may see again the 33.99% event of BTC Dominance near the end of 17th, but this does not mean that these shitcoins really have matching value, only the cycle and speculators are giving them The value of the bubble, then they will gradually fade, and will be replaced by the new coin, and then the exchange will be off the shelf, truly zero.