QKL123 market analysis | Forex market smoke, bitcoin broke 12,000 US dollars? (0805)

Abstract: Today, the RMB exchange rate broke seven, which made the market risk aversion increase. The short-term BTC attacked 11,000 US dollars, and the upper resistance level of 12,000 US dollars was facing a greater risk. Recently, the risk brought by the action of the BTC giant whale has decreased, and some of the altcoin transactions have fallen back to the low point of the year, which can be configured on a dip.

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According to QKL123 statistics, on August 5, 2019, the total market value of the global Token market was 2,128.386 billion yuan, the total market value of 24 hours increased or decreased by +5.15%, the total turnover of 24 hours was 395.608 billion yuan, and the total turnover of 24 hours changed + 30.79%, 24-hour market activity has increased. The market value of BTC accounted for 67.17%, which was higher than yesterday, and the market risk aversion increased significantly.

At 12 o'clock, the top ten encrypted assets in the market value (excluding USDT), BTC has the largest increase in 24 hours (+6.90%), ETH 24 hours up +4.15%, LTC 24 hours up +3.33%, EOS 24 hours up + down + 2.16%. The USDT traded at -0.07% for 24 hours, with a 24-hour turnover rate of 2.40%, and a slight decrease in 24-hour off-exchange capital inflows.

The Babbitt Composite Index 8BTCCI reported 16045.90 points, up 24 hours to +6.00%; alternative.me sentiment index was 64, slightly higher than yesterday (62), the market performance was greedy. Today's Bitcoin's Google search trend has increased significantly from yesterday, hitting a seven-day high.

Analyst's point of view: The RMB exchange rate has been broken today, and the market risk aversion has further fermented. The BTC has a short-term heavy-duty station of $11,000 and the upper pressure of $12,000 is at a higher risk. Recently, the risk of selling the BTC whales has been reduced with the passage of time, and it is not advisable to chase after a short period of time.

First, the spot BTC market

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Today, affected by the market risk aversion, the BTC attacked $11,000, and there was a short-term heavy volume, which continued to rise to $12,000. However, there is a strong pressure in the vicinity of 12,000 US dollars, and it is not appropriate to chase the high.

Fund face

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As of 14:00, BTC's net capital inflow today was 3,28,801,100 yuan, an increase from yesterday. Among them, the net inflow of oversized single (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) is 455.8841 million yuan, the net inflow of large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) is 10266.22 million yuan, and the net is between 50,000 yuan and 300,000 yuan. The inflow of 1,246.57 million yuan, the small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net inflow of 540.82 million yuan. The market opening capacity is not reduced, mostly in large orders and medium orders.

2. Fundamentals

4 Next block reward halved countdown estimate: 266 days

At present, the BTC's total network computing power is 71.71 EH/s, which is slightly lower than yesterday (76.07EH/s), close to the historical high point, and the long-term upward trend has not changed. Yesterday, the number of active addresses on the BTC chain was 573,200, which was down from the previous day and approached the low point of three months. The number of coins destroyed today was 7,647,800 (historical normal) compared with yesterday (2,237,600). The number of BTC coins destroyed on the 29th (262 million) was the amount released since the mine disaster at the end of last year, but it is not The secondary market has caused an impact, the risk of selling pressure has decreased with time, and the long-term upward trend of BTC has remained unchanged.

Second, the spot ETH market

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With the BTC breaking through $11,000, ETH rushed to $230 and was expected to stand at $230 in a short time. The ETH/BTC transaction went down all the way to 0.0196 BTC, which hit a new low in the past year. The amount of short-term downturn can shrink and it is more likely to stabilize.

Fund face

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As of 14:00, ETH's net inflow of funds today was 4,714,655 yuan, an increase from yesterday. Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow of 82,239,600 yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net inflow of 174,814,600 yuan, in the middle (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net The inflow of 147,788,300 yuan, the small inflow (less than 50,000 yuan) net inflow of 23,203,520 yuan. The market is dominated by large orders and small orders.

2. Fundamentals

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Observing the Midu statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour ETH DApp has increased. Among them, the pledge of DAI's 24-hour total flow (1,219 ETH) increased or decreased by +7.46% compared with yesterday, the trading platform IDEX's 24-hour total flow (1,471 ETH) increased or decreased by +1.29% compared with yesterday; the game encryption hero's 24-hour active user The number (2,249) increased or decreased by +1.86% compared with yesterday; the number of 24-hour transactions (1,028) of the stable currency Paxos Standard increased or decreased by +3.21% compared with yesterday.

Third, the spot LTC market

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Yesterday, LTC rushed to $100 from a low of $90. The LTC/BTC trading pair quickly fell back to 0.008 BTC, close to the low of the year. Today's block rewards are halved, and the market is facing increased risks, but it is likely to strengthen after the fundamentals are stable.

Fund face

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As of 14:00, the net outflow of LTC funds today was 52,928,300 yuan, a decrease from yesterday. Among them, the net inflow of super large single (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) is 13.1839 million yuan, the net outflow of large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) is 2,199.6 thousand yuan, and the net is between 10,000 yuan and 300,000 yuan. The outflow was 11.23 million yuan, and the net outflow of small orders (below 50,000 yuan) was 5,268,600 yuan. The market is dominated by small orders.

2. Fundamentals

10 Next block reward halved countdown estimate: 0.1 days

At present, LTC's total network computing power is 452.90TH/s, which is slightly lower than yesterday (461.33 TH/s), close to the historical high point, and the long-term upward trend has not changed. Yesterday, the number of active addresses on the LTC chain was 74,200, a slight decrease from the previous day (70,700), lower than the average of three months. Yesterday, the number of LTC coins destroyed (124.839 million, historically small), significantly increased from the previous day (8.06 million), the risk of selling on the LTC chain on August 01 (the number of coins destroyed by 87.928 million) was released or reduced. It is worth noting that today LTC will complete the block rewards every four years, the block reward will be reduced from 25 LTC to 12.5 LTC, and the annual inflation rate is expected to fall from 9% to 4.4%. This is a long-term positive for the LTC trend when other conditions remain the same.

Fourth, the spot EOS market

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In a short period of time, EOS continued to fluctuate between 4.2 and 4.4 USD, and the willingness to attack was not strong, and the performance was weaker than ETH and LTC. At present, the EOS/BTC transaction is close to the lowest point of the year, and there is no heavy volume for a short time.

Fund face

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As of 14:00, EOS's net inflow of funds today was 1,309.8 million yuan, which was reversed yesterday. Among them, the net inflow of oversized single (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) was 634.16 million yuan, the net outflow of large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) was 31.43 million yuan, and the net was between 10,000 yuan and 300,000 yuan. The inflow of 4,790,500 yuan, the small inflow (less than 50,000 yuan) net inflow of 10,529,100 yuan. The market is mostly built with small orders.

2. Fundamentals

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Looking at the Midu statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour EOS DApp was slightly reduced. Among them, the number of 24-hour active users of entertainment games Texas Hold'em (1,260) increased or decreased by -0.24% compared with yesterday; the 24-hour total flow of trading platform DEXEOS (96,731 EOS) increased or decreased by +3.27% compared with yesterday.

V. Analyst strategy

1. Long line (1-3 years)

BTC is in the short-term partial adjustment stage, and the mad cow market may come in the next one to two years. Recently, the risk of selling pressure brought about by the giant whale action has been reduced, and the rallies can be reduced or oversold. The BTC transaction of the intelligent contract platform ETH, the altcoin leader LTC, and the DPoS leader EOS is close to the lowest point in the year. Currently, the BTC is the main link, which can be properly configured on the dips.

2. Midline (1-3 months)

Short-term shocks to adjust the situation, the possibility of short-term liquidity is decreasing, and various types of encrypted assets can be lighten up and bargained.

3. Short-term (1-3 days)

The short-term BTC downside risk has decreased, and the amount of energy can be seen in the direction. Currently, the BTC resistance is $12,000 and the support is $11,000. The ETH, LTC and EOS amplitudes are relatively large, and the BTC volume can be moved in the direction of the machine.

14 Note: Encrypted assets are high-risk assets. This document is for decision-making purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.