Xiao Lei: Gold and Bitcoin have risen again. What kind of people are making money?

Recently, the investment market has experienced large fluctuations due to sudden changes in various macro news. The panic is still spreading. In less than ten trading days, some mainstream assets have been adjusted significantly. The last ten transactions of the US Dow Jones Industrial Average The day fell more than 5%. During the same period, international crude oil prices fell more than 10%, and China's stock market also fell 6%.


The index measuring global panic continues to rise

However, in the past ten days or so, the international gold price has risen by nearly 8%, and the price of gold denominated in renminbi has risen by nearly 10%, while bitcoin has risen by more than 30%. Many investors have turned their attention to such safe-haven assets, but the problem is that investment is not a fashionable thing, even if such safe-haven assets will rise, do you think you can make money when you come in?

The strategy of decentralizing asset allocation is mentioned by investors every day, but in most cases, decentralized allocation is not very attractive to many people, because in the short run, among the various assets, The overall benefits of a decentralized configuration are often unremarkable.

In fact, investors may not have thought about a problem. If you pull out the trend of a casual investment product and look at the price 20 years ago, you will find that almost 90% of the assets are rising. The so-called supply and demand data that affects the price is very pale under the magic of time.

Why is this? The reason is very simple. The global investment assets are all denominated in sovereign credit currencies. Almost all sovereign credit currencies are subject to continuous depreciation in terms of trends. 80% of the world's banknotes have not lived for 100 years.

If we think that we are very smart, we can always grasp the rules of asset price changes, and when we start to rise, we can quickly get into it, and we can do it when we are good.

Then I want to tell you a set of statistics, even in the US stock market, which lasts for decades, and feels that if you buy your index with your eyes closed, you can make money. If you used to be in the past, from 1996 to 2015, it will last for 20 years. Investing in the S&P 500 index, the average annual return is 4.8%. If you miss the biggest increase of 10 trading days for various reasons, the annual return will become 1.3%, which is not as good as bank deposits.

If you miss the biggest increase of 40 days, your annual return will become -4% per year. It can also be said that if you missed 1% of the trading days in more than 4,000 trading days in these 20 years, these 20 years will be busy, and will lose money.

Then, do you have the ability to pick out 40 to trade in 4,000 trading days? I believe that 99.99% of people do not have this ability.

This law is also established in other markets, including the Chinese stock market, as well as many commodity markets around the world, and it is even better. That is to say, in most of the investment products, in the long run, less than 2% of the trading days contributed more than 80% of the proceeds.

What do I mean by this thing? In fact, it is very simple. If you don't stay in a market for a long time, but just want to be smart, you can get a big return in the short term. The difficulty is very big. That's why many people look at a market that is hot and then rush in, often because of the long time it is set, because the high probability of this operation is not able to capture the true contribution of the 1%-2% Trading day.

From 2012 to 2013, China’s aunt snapped up gold. Although it has gradually been untied, the time has passed for five or six years. From the end of 2017 to the beginning of 2018, some investors rushed into the bitcoin market, and the price was close. 20,000 US dollars, so far, the price of bitcoin has only rebounded to 12,000 US dollars.

But if some investors entered the gold and bitcoin markets ten years ago, today's prices fluctuate anyway, and the possibility of breaking through the cost of buying ten years ago is not great.

I am not complaining about why people didn't get on the train earlier, but to tell everyone the fact that all the return on investment comes from choosing and sticking. It is more efficient to be smart, but the investment market is not Who is more active. Gold and bitcoin prices may rise in the future, but the relationship between this increase and your specific return on investment is probably not that simple.

Of course, time can't go back, no one can go back to buy gold or bitcoin ten years ago. For those who are ready to invest, every day is the beginning, it will go to the day after ten years, and in my opinion It is not today, but the mentality and cognitive level of today.