Article source: Ant blockchain (WeChat public number) Original title: "When the wind is not as good as the wind"
Today is cruel, tomorrow is more cruel, the day after tomorrow is very good, but most people die tomorrow night. ——Ma Yun
After a bubble of greed and fraud over the past few years, the disruption and value of the blockchain overnight has been revived. Gartner, an internationally renowned consultancy, believes that the blockchain is gradually releasing its original potential and will create a large-scale, value-added blockchain economy in the next decade. In the next decade, it will be divided into the following three major stages of development:
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Stage 1: 2018-2021. Despite the increasing number of application scenarios and explorations, the adoption of blockchain technology by enterprises is mainly “solutions inspired by blockchains”, that is, the use of blockchain core technologies and concepts (distributed data storage, The cryptography, decentralization model, etc.), the global blockchain business value at this stage is limited, about $38 billion.
Stage 2: 2020-2026. There will be more and more Gartner's “complete blockchain solutions” in the market. Many companies will start to focus on the blockchain, and many successful business models will be born. The commercial value of the blockchain. It is expected to grow at a significant rate, and by 2026 the global market will reach $360 billion.
Stage 3: 2027-2030. There will be a large number of “blockchain enhancement solutions”, a more complete intelligent solution combined with other new technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI) and Internet of Things (IoT). At that time, blockchain technology will lead a new business landscape with a commercial value of more than $3 trillion.
From the perspective of blockchain scenarios and application exploration over the past two years, we believe that this is a good description of today, tomorrow and the day after tomorrow in the blockchain market.
Today's break requires core driving force
Although the commercial value of the blockchain is far from being spurred, we have seen that the blockchain technology of the bubble retreat is gradually taking root in the real economy, and the huge value generated by efficiency and trust improvement is being released in all aspects of society. :
Whether it is cross-institutional cross-regional clearing transactions of financial institutions, trade financing, or digital document flow in the field of transportation and logistics; whether it is the credibility of more digital deposits in the society, or the digital acceleration of financial services in the enterprise supply chain, The blockchain will use technology to redefine the digital trust in many aspects of society and improve the efficiency of the operation of social basic services. The process of high-speed integration of blockchain into all aspects of society is also the process of accelerating the digitization of assets in all walks of life.
At this stage of breakthrough, we believe that it needs more impetus from across organizations, industries, and regions. This requires leaders such as governments, industries, and groups to better communicate the weak links in the field of communication.
Many people will ask, since the government or the lead company has administrative power, why should the problem solved with the centralized system use the blockchain? In many scenarios, the centralized system certainly brings a lot of benefits, but the drawbacks it brings are obvious. First of all, the centralized system is difficult to directly invade the business system in the upstream and downstream industry chain, which will lead to problems of interest, data sovereignty and utility rights. Secondly, trust under the centralized mechanism is a big problem. Will properly use the data, tamper with the data, and even lead the unfair transaction, not only the enterprise is not known, the regulatory department is also difficult to manage and audit; not to mention the cost of the centralized system in the application of large-scale cross-scenarios, Technical implementation and process closure are not realistic.
Therefore, the leap-forward breakthrough of the blockchain will inevitably require many pioneers to promote the wider blockchain scene. This will enable more transactions and information exchange, and will be linked to the blockchain platform to establish an interconnected and trustworthy system between enterprises, governments and regions, which will bring greater convenience to people's lives: people eat safe food. With the use of safe medicine, the medical insurance system is more efficient and efficient; all kinds of bills will realize digital circulation transactions; charitable donations and welfare lottery will produce more penetrating supervision and more open cooperation mode. This will enable us to enter the multi-chain era of blossoming, and the blockchain will push the industry and society to a more trustful direction, and will gradually release greater commercial value.
Tomorrow’s leap-forward victory lies in interconnection
In the next few years, it will be the deepwater area where the blockchain will be commercialized. All industries need more blockchain applications with thickness, which is the “complete blockchain solution” mentioned by Gartner. At this stage, more companies need to turn past business processes from fragmented and complex connections, or inefficient, partially invisible, offline sign-off transactions to a truly digital and efficient connection, even in The last mile of the chain superimposes financial services capabilities.
Where is the fortress of this stage? We believe in the integration and integration of centralized and decentralized systems .
Centralization has its natural and historical advantages, and decentralization can solve the credibility of scenarios such as supply chain and cross-border trade. The large-scale outbreak of the commercial value of blockchain requires the establishment of a balance between centralization and decentralization by means of technical means: while safeguarding the centralization status, it also needs to solve the connection trust and penetration under decentralization. The problem of management, greatly improving efficiency and the number of connections. This is also an important direction for the continuous development of technology in the future blockchain. Whether it is centralized or decentralized, the continuous evolution of blockchain technology will eventually promote the formation of business alliances in the new economic era and improve business efficiency.
This leads to deep integration of the company's existing business applications and processes with the blockchain. Enterprises have different business applications and play different roles in supporting business operations. In many cases, blockchain solutions must be interoperable with these applications to further enhance value, such as supply chain financing in banks and manufacturing, and supply chain management in retail. The business migration of real-world application scenarios, as well as the real use of the blockchain platform, is an urgent problem to be solved in the blockchain field. If the solution is not good, it will be a hindrance to the development of blockchain applications.
At the same time, the bigger challenge comes from cross-enterprise, cross-industry, and cross-regional collaboration. The biggest difference between blockchain and many technologies is that in the process of establishing connection and trust, different parties need different parties. Digital connections are often based on inter-agency, cross-organization and cross-country. The fortress that needs to be crossed is not just digital. Means itself. In a global blockchain research report that we worked with Forrester last year, many financial industry respondents said they lacked cross-disciplinary knowledge of supply chains, e-commerce (58%), and lack of specific vertical areas. The blockchain application case (51%) and even the lack of global partners (41%) to help identify cross-border trade opportunities.
The key to the process of combining the blockchain with the existing commercial system lies in the design of the top layer, the interest chain of all consensus groups, the transaction process on the chain, the combination of multiple different chains, the opening of shared services, and the design of incentive mechanisms for nodes. Platform governance and regulation, introduction of financial services, design of super nodes, etc. Such a complicated capital flow + information flow + data stream digitization process will enable the blockchain to embrace more real key trading scenarios, truly form a new generation of commercial infrastructure, and usher in a million-connected value Internet era.
How to win in the day after tomorrow? Technical race finals
After that, it will usher in a large-scale, value-added blockchain economy that is globalized. Gartner believes that this stage of the blockchain solution has enhanced capabilities, combined with other technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI) and Internet of Things (IoT), will have an unprecedented commercial effect.
This blockchain driving effect will lead to an exponential increase in the number of information exchanges and transactions. The collaborative network between multiple organizations will be more transparent and transparent. More single-point interactions will become indirect from serial multi-step invisibility. Transparent trading platform form. Not only that, but if we can reduce the complete transaction process between multiple organizations from one month to one second, multiple commercial billing and equity distribution real-time settlement, automatic conversion of contracts and values between multiple devices, which will Bringing a large amount of application data exchange and processing, it requires a more stable and complex large-scale trading system than today's dual 11 to meet the requirements of new consensus, throughput, and throughput.
At that time, with the development of technologies such as quantum computing, current encryption algorithms and trusted computing may not provide sufficient security in the future. We need newer consensus protocols, advanced cryptography security and privacy protection, scalability and efficiency, cross-chain protocols, smart contract programming languages and multi-party secure computing, IoT, trusted execution environments and blockchain technology research results .