QKL123 market analysis | Bitcoin and gold fell together, "up also Xiao He, fall also Xiao He" (0814)

Abstract: Yesterday, affected by the news, the market risk aversion has eased, and Bitcoin fell with gold. Recently, BTC has a triangular convergence pattern, which is currently in a lower position, and it is more likely to be short-term upward. In the short-term, there is a tendency to go up and continue to look long.

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According to QKL123 statistics, on August 14, 2019, the total market value of the global Token market was 1981.85 billion yuan, the total market value of 24 hours increased or decreased by -4.72%, the total turnover of 24 hours was 384.187 billion yuan, and the total turnover of 24 hours changed + 24.74%, 24-hour market activity increased significantly. The market value of BTC accounted for 67.01%, which was lower than yesterday (68.48%), but the market risk aversion was still high.

At 13:00, the market value of the top ten encryption assets (excluding USDT), BCH 24 hours increase (+7.20%), BTC 24 hours up / 6.82%, LTC 24 hours up +0.63%, ETH 24 hours up and down – 0.51%, EOS rose by +1.14% in 24 hours. The USDT rose by +0.05% in 24 hours, and the net inflow of funds today was 8,887,900 yuan, which was opposite to yesterday (-1,135,800 yuan).

The Babbitt Composite Index 8BTCCI reported 14812.48 points, up 24 hours to -3.42%; alternative.me sentiment index was 11, which was significantly lower than yesterday (45), and the market performance changed from fear to extreme fear. Today's global Bitcoin Google search trend is basically the same as yesterday, close to the three-month low.

Analyst's point of view: Due to the influence of the news, the US suddenly announced that it would postpone the tariff on some Chinese products. The offshore RMB exchange rate and US stocks rose sharply, gold and bitcoin fell, while the altcoin fell less. Market risk aversion Some relief. In the trend, the current BTC is in the lower position of the triangle convergence interval, and the possibility of short-term uplink convergence is greater.

First, the spot BTC market

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At 22 o'clock yesterday, affected by the news that the US was postponing tariffs, the BTC dropped from the $11,300, and quickly fell below the support level of $11,000. After a small shock, it again resumed at 08:00 today and is currently fluctuating around $10,500. From the daily view, the BTC is still oscillating in the triangle convergence interval, and is currently in a lower position, and the possibility of short-term uplink convergence is greater.

Fund face

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As of 14:00, BTC's net outflow of funds today was 270,094,400 yuan, a significant increase from yesterday. Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow of 88557.14 million yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net outflow of 327,664,400 yuan, in the single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net The outflow was 91.96 million yuan, and the net outflow of small orders (below 50,000 yuan) was 576.75 million yuan. The market is mostly dominated by oversized orders and medium orders.

2. Fundamentals

4 Next block reward halved countdown estimate: 262 days

At present, BTC's total network computing power is 73.24EH/s, which is basically the same as yesterday (74.34EH/s), close to the historical high point, and the long-term upward trend has not changed. Yesterday, the number of coins destroyed was 9,688,900 (historically smaller) than the previous day (5,259,200), and the long-term uptrend was not destroyed. Yesterday, the number of active addresses on the BTC chain was 874,300, a significant increase from the previous day (64.47 million), close to a one-month high.

Second, the spot ETH market

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Yesterday, ETH quickly rebounded from a high of 211 US dollars to a low of 204 US dollars. The ETH/BTC trading rate rose rapidly from the low point of 0.0185 BTC to 0.0196 BTC. The quantity can be upward and the short-term performance is relatively strong.

Fund face

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As of 14:00, ETH's net capital inflow today was 501.194 million yuan, a significant increase from yesterday (207.71 million yuan). Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow of 38.219 million yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net inflow of 15358.93 million yuan, in the middle (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net The inflow of 86.36 million yuan, the small inflow (less than 50,000 yuan) net inflow of 298.28 million yuan. The market is mostly small and large.

2. Fundamentals

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Observing the Midu statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour ETH DApp was slightly reduced. Among them, the pledge of DAI's 24-hour total flow (6,520 ETH) increased or decreased by -6.49% compared with yesterday, the trading platform IDEX's 24-hour total flow (1,650 ETH) increased or decreased by -3.28% compared with yesterday; the game encryption hero's 24-hour active user The number (2,414) increased or decreased by -0.45% compared with yesterday; the number of 24-hour transactions (1,251) of the stable currency Paxos Standard increased or decreased by +2.29% compared with yesterday.

Third, the spot LTC market

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LTC continued to fluctuate at a low level between $80 and $105. The LTC/BTC trading pair quickly rebounded from yesterday's low of 0.0074 BTC to 0.0081 BTC, which was relatively strong in a short period of time.

Fund face

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As of 14:00, the net inflow of LTC funds today was 69,666,600 yuan, a significant decrease from yesterday (20,689,600 yuan). Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow of 17.324 million yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net inflow of 9000.58 yuan, the middle of the single (between 50,000 yuan and 300,000 yuan) net outflow 351.882 million yuan, a small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net inflow of 32.17 million yuan. There are differences in the market, and most of them are built with large orders.

2. Fundamentals

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At present, LTC's total network computing power is 360.34TH/s, which continues to decline from yesterday (388.56TH/s), approaching the low point of two months. Yesterday, the number of LTC coins destroyed (1,938,900, historically normal) was lower than the previous day (289.09 million), and the long-term trend was not destroyed. Yesterday, the number of active addresses on the LTC chain was 75,500, down from the previous day (88,400), close to the three-month average.

Fourth, the spot EOS market

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Similar to ETH and LTC, EOS continues to fluctuate slightly between $4 and $4.5. The EOS/BTC transaction has continued to rise from yesterday's low of 0.000355 BTC to 0.000386 BTC, and the short-term upward volume has increased.

Fund face

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As of 14:00, EOS's net inflow of funds today was 63.910 million yuan, which was reversed yesterday. Among them, the net inflow of super large single (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) is 3,562,200 yuan, the net outflow of large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) is 34,188,800 yuan, and the net is between 3,400,000 yuan and 300,000 yuan. The inflow of 9,945,700 yuan, the small inflow (less than 50,000 yuan) net inflow of 84.618 million yuan. There are certain differences in the market, mainly based on small singles.

2. Fundamentals

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Looking at the Midu statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour EOS DApp increased slightly. Among them, the number of 24-hour active users of entertainment game Texas Hold'em (1,240) increased or decreased by +0.98% compared with yesterday, and the number of 24-hour active users of entertainment game Trust Dice (979) increased or decreased by -0.41% compared with yesterday; 24 of trading platform DEXEOS Total hourly water (41,870 EOS) increased or decreased by +3.21% from yesterday.

V. Analyst strategy

1. Long line (1-3 years)

The long-term trend of BTC is improving. Currently, it is in the stage of partial adjustment. The market of mad cows may come in the next one to two years. The BTC trading of the intelligent contract platform ETH, the altcoin leader LTC, and the DPoS leader EOS is at a low point in the year, and can be configured on a dip basis to capture the opportunity of reversal.

2. Midline (1-3 months)

Short-term shocks adjust the situation, BTC is in a triangular convergence pattern, all kinds of assets are linked, and can be bargained on a dip.

3. Short-term (1-3 days)

Short-term downside space is small, and you can do more on dips.

14 Note: Encrypted assets are high-risk assets. This document is for decision-making purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.