The most influential KOL of Digital Passage knows that it is Nakamoto Satoshi and V God, but they are already out of breath, and now Trump is the one who dominates the world.
Risk warning: the global situation is out of control
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The world faces "a big change in a hundred years"
Two hundred years ago, I felt the impact from foreign countries. Li Hongzhang believed that "China has encountered a strong enemy that has not been seen for thousands of years, and China has not changed much in the past three thousand years." As we analyzed in the analysis of “Towards Destruction: The End of Globalization A Century of the Year”, the world is facing “a big change in the past 100 years”. After the market forces are released to the limit, the society is shredded, the pendulum begins to swing back, and the silence is big. Most made their choice.
Since the end of the Second World War, world peace has been maintained for nearly 74 years. The iron curtain of the Cold War was broken, and the electrons that leaped at the speed of light on the silicon wafer made human society once again enter a stage of rapid development. Driven by the information technology revolution, a large number of large enterprises such as Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Apple have achieved a market value of nearly one trillion yuan from zero, and the corresponding industries are moving, and the world economy has been growing at a rapid rate for nearly 30 years.
Globalization has also developed rapidly during these 30 years. The Berlin Wall has collapsed and the confrontation between the two camps has ceased to exist. Most countries have joined the global division of labor system. The European Union was established, the euro replaced many currencies, and European integration has reached the level closest to the Holy Roman Empire.
Under the Cold War pattern, the two camps were opposed, and the big countries needed to maintain a complete industrial chain in the country to prevent changes in the situation from affecting their own industries. Western countries have established relatively complete social security systems such as social security, medical care, old-age care, and relief. However, with the disintegration of the Soviet Union and the development of globalization, workers who were protected by minimum wages and longest working hours were abandoned, and capital flows to the lowest cost. The place, ordinary people in developed countries can no longer share the benefits.
The ultimate market power has left some people ruthless behind. The mottled rust belts on the shores of the Great Lakes and the cities on the northeast plains that go to the empty buildings are all abandoned by globalization.
In the past three decades, the income share of the highest income of 1% has risen in most developed countries, and the polarization between rich and poor has continued to increase. From 1973 to 2016, the actual income of American workers increased by only 0.2% per year, far below the rate of GDP growth. The capital-controlled media discussed issues such as LGBT, racial equality, and humanitarianism throughout the day, but they were unable to make their voices.
Until one day, someone said their voice, they wanted to work, they hated illegal immigrants and expensive health insurance, they wanted a great country and not politically correct, so they voted for this person, Trang Put on the stage. This is not an individual phenomenon, and the conservative forces in mainstream countries are counterattacking. The whole of Europe was kidnapped by populism. The British Independence Party, the French National Front, and the German Party chose to rise. The United Kingdom succeeded in "Brexit" under the strong encouragement of populism. Argentina was the populist representative of Latin America. On August 13, 2019, Argentina’s presidential primaries have been unpopular, with opposition candidate Alberto Fernandez leading the current president Mauricio Macri, causing market panic, Argentina’s bond retreat “three kills” and MERVAL index plummeting over 37% Argentina’s five-year sovereign CDS skyrocketed by 938 basis points in one day, and the Argentine peso hit a record low against the US dollar… Is this scene like a deja vu?
On the eve of the outbreak of World War I, Churchill described the public opinion as follows: "There are strange tastes in the air. Countries are not satisfied with material prosperity, and they are keen on internal and external quarrels… We can almost certainly determine that the world wants to suffer. Obviously, everywhere The men are eager to take risks. The explosion of this war, though full of drama, is almost inevitable. After continuous prosperity and long-lasting peace, the unstable seeds gradually sprout, and the desires and pains are intertwined, igniting the European continent. Gunpowder barrel.
Now, the pendulum is back again after the market forces are released to the extreme, and the people who have been abandoned by globalization are beginning to speak. Their spearheads are not aimed at the coveted capital, but instead aim at more specific goals, such as stealing their own work. People and countries. The economic conflict has reached the point of arrogance, and the big countries have even begun to start with the other companies. From trade to technology, from technology to finance, the confrontation is more and more comprehensive.
Time darling Trump almost decided BTC price
The global political and economic situation is turbulent, and safe-haven demand is driving the price of BTC. In March 2013, Cyprus, a small country in southern Europe, imposed tax on resident deposits, causing residents to panic and erupting into a financial crisis. In order to prevent the outflow of domestic capital, Cyprus imposes many restrictions on the capital use of citizens.
The BTC has made it possible for the private capital of Cyprus to leave the country. According to data provided by Mt.Gox, a BTC trading website at the time, the value of a BTC on March 5, 2013 was approximately $40, and by March 30, the value was over $92, an increase of 130%. At that time, BTC was in the second round of price cycle (November 2011 to August 2015), and the outbreak of the Cyprus financial crisis objectively played a role in promoting the rise of BTC prices.
A similar situation has occurred in South American countries such as Argentina and Venezuela. In all of these countries, the political and economic situation is turbulent and the sovereign currency is devalued. Under the impetus of risk aversion, the demand for BTC in these countries has skyrocketed, and the volume and price level of BTC have continued to break new highs.
Trump helped BTC jump over the strong pressure of $6,000. In the early morning of May 6, 2019, Trump announced that from May 11th, the tariff of 200 billion US dollars of goods will be raised from 10% to 25%; on May 10, Trump threatens to add another $300 billion of goods. The tariff was levied, and Trump made two sounds. The price of BTC rose and the property of BTC was highlighted.
On August 1, 2019, Trump announced that it will impose a 10% tariff on all US$300 million worth of US exports from September 1, 2019, which will also boost the price of BTC.
On August 13, 2019, the Office of the US Trade Representative announced that products such as mobile phones, notebook computers and monitors, game consoles and some clothing made in China will be temporarily excluded from the import of about $300 billion from September 1. In addition to the additional tariff collection plan, the delay was delayed until December 15th, and the price of BTC fell back after several days.
Digital gold has excellent investment value
In "BTC Value Interval Measurement Based on Value Reserve Valuation – Five of the Quest for Valuation Valuation", we compared BTC, gold and French currency according to the main characteristics of value reserve. In general, BTC has significant advantages in terms of scarcity, portability, severability, verifiability, etc., and has good durability. Although BTC is currently relatively inferior in general acceptance and stability, With the gradual maturity of the BTC market, the public's acceptance of BTC is growing rapidly, and its price volatility is gradually decreasing. BTC has great potential for value reserves, and gold is recognized as the best value reserve carrier. BTC is also known as "digital gold."
The global economic instability has intensified, and both gold and BTC prices will rise in stages. After the outbreak of the Cyprus financial crisis in March 2013, the price of gold, which was originally in a downward trend, rose by 0.61% against the trend, while the price of BTC rose by 130%. After the trade friction occurred, the international gold price that had been stable since July 2018 continued to rise in May and June and broke through the $1400 mark. Among them, June 28 was 8.76% higher than May 31 and 6.48% in 2019. At the same time, BTC also surged from US$85,574 to US$12,407, an increase of 44.70%, and an increase of 258.82% in 2019. Both BTC and Gold are responsible for the global capital hedging function, which further supports the attributes of BTC “Digital Gold”.
As Dario said in the Paradigm Shift, the future may be most similar to what happened in the war years of the 1940s (World War II), and various factors of instability are accumulating and there seems to be no The prescription, from the perspective of hedging, digital gold BTC has excellent investment value.