QKL123 market analysis | Bitcoin fell below 10,000 US dollars, is it really bad? (0815)

Abstract: BTC continued to decline rapidly yesterday, and the altcoin joints contributed to the decline. The rapid decline of the short-term BTC may be the “banker” picking up the trend, but if it can't be recovered in a short time, the daily triangle convergence pattern will go bad and continue to explore.

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According to QKL123 statistics, on August 15, 2019, the total market value of the global Token market was 1,837.729 billion yuan, the total market value of 24-hour increased or decreased by -8.20%, the total turnover of 24 hours was 46.323 billion yuan, and the total turnover of 24 hours changed + 19.69%, 24-hour market activity increased significantly. The market value of BTC accounted for 67.78%, which was higher than yesterday (67.01%), and the market risk aversion was higher.

At 13:00, the top ten encrypted assets in the market value (excluding USDT), EOS fell the most in 24 hours (-14.31%), BTC rose by -6.48% in 24 hours, LTC rose by -13.45% in 24 hours, and ETH rose in 24 hours – 11.50%. The USDT rose by +0.91% in 24 hours, and the net inflow of funds today was +689.90 million, which was significantly higher than yesterday (+887.89 million).

The Babbitt Composite Index 8BTCCI reported 13322.98 points, up 24 hours to -10.07%; alternative.me sentiment index was 13, a slight increase from yesterday (11), the market performance is still extremely fearful. Today's global Bitcoin's Google search trend (peak 100) has increased from yesterday's (peak 92) to a seven-day high.

Analyst's point of view: Today's BTC decline has the possibility of ruining the triangle convergence pattern of the daily line. Although there is a possibility that the BTC can absorb the liquid, if it fails to return to the convergence area in a short time, it is likely to continue to explore. Recently, market trends need to continue to wait and see, risk enthusiasts can take advantage of rebound or reversal opportunities.

First, the spot BTC market

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According to Yesterday, yesterday, from 16:00 to 12 o'clock yesterday, there were unidentified addresses that were continuously transferred to the currency account number of 3,800 bitcoins. The BTC/USDT of the currency security led the signs of other exchanges. At the same time, after the news of the previous day's bad news, the BTC dropped from the amount of 11,300 US dollars, and quickly fell below the support level of 10,000 US dollars today. The amount can be relatively dense, panic selling more, short-term existence of sucking, long and short double The possibility of killing. However, from the perspective of the daily line, BTC is in the lower edge of the triangle convergence interval. If it cannot return to the convergence area quickly, the market will continue to explore.

Fund face

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As of 14:00, BTC's net outflow of funds today was 346,655,900 yuan, a significant increase from yesterday (270,094,400 yuan). Among them, the over-single (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow is 8.5568 million yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net outflow is 460.59 million yuan, and the medium single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net The outflow of 136.57 million yuan, the small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 75276.80 million. The market is mostly dominated by oversized singles and small orders.

2. Fundamentals

4 Next block reward halved countdown estimate: 262 days

At present, the BTC's total network computing power is 74.01EH/s, which is basically the same as yesterday (73.24), close to the historical high point, and the long-term upward trend has not changed. Yesterday, the number of coins destroyed was 9,282,400 (historically smaller), slightly lower than the previous day (986.89 million), and the long-term uptrend was not destroyed. Yesterday, the number of active addresses on the BTC chain was 761,000, which was a decrease from the previous day (874,300), higher than the average of the past three months.

Second, the spot ETH market

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At 00 o'clock today, ETH's heavy volume went down, and it fell below the support of 200 US dollars and 190 US dollars. If it can't quickly recover lost ground, it will continue to test the strong support of 160 US dollars. The ETH/BTC transaction is down from 0.0196 BTC to 0.0180 BTC, which is a strong support for a short period of time.

Fund face

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As of 14:00, ETH's net outflow of funds today was 71,051,400 yuan, which was reversed from yesterday. Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow is 20,738,000 yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net outflow is 64,883,600 yuan, and the medium single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net The outflow of 487.28 million yuan, the small outflow (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 13761.70 million. The market is mostly reduced by the single order.

2. Fundamentals

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Observing the Midu statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour ETH DApp was slightly reduced. Among them, the 24-hour total flow (1,958 ETH) of the pledge by DAI increased or decreased by +4.51% compared with yesterday, and the 24-hour total flow of the trading platform IDEX (3,128 ETH) increased or decreased by +1.46% compared with yesterday; the 24-hour active user of the game encryption hero The number (2,282) increased or decreased by -1.93% compared with yesterday; the number of 24-hour transactions (1,252) of the stable currency Paxos Standard increased or decreased by -0.48% compared with yesterday.

Third, the spot LTC market

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Yesterday LTC fell below 80 US dollars, short-term support above 70 US dollars, LTC / BTC trading against yesterday's 0.0081BTC fell back to the previous day's low of 0.0075 BTC, the amount can be released.

Fund face

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As of 14:00, the net inflow of LTC funds today was 305,564,800 yuan, a significant increase from yesterday (696.656 million yuan). Among them, the net inflow of oversized single (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) is 143.0075 million yuan, the net inflow of large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) is 5108.05 yuan, and the net inflow of medium single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) 2956.48 million yuan, a small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net inflow of 81.894 million yuan. The market is dominated by oversized single-sale warehouses.

2. Fundamentals

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At present, LTC's total network computing power is 417.15TH/s, which is significantly higher than yesterday (360.34TH/s), which is close to the three-month average. Yesterday, the number of LTC coins destroyed (883.894 million, a large historical value), a significant increase from the previous day (1938.19 million), a short-term risk of selling, long-term trend has not been destroyed. Yesterday, the number of active addresses on the LTC chain was 7.03 million, down from the previous day (75,500), close to the low of two months.

Fourth, the spot EOS market

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At 00 o'clock yesterday, EOS fell below 4 US dollars. After the heavy volume fell to 3.6 US dollars, it again fell to the strong support level of 3.3 US dollars. There is a possibility of a rebound and stabilization. The EOS/BTC traded twice to the next day, with a minimum of 0.000347 BTC, and quickly rebounded to around 0.000362 BTC.

Fund face

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As of 14:00, EOS's net outflow of funds today was 51,148,700 yuan, which was reversed yesterday. Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow is 41.572 million yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net outflow is 96,248,800 yuan, and the medium single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net The outflow of 140.324 million yuan, the small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 233.336 million yuan. The market is mainly based on the single-small position in the small order.

2. Fundamentals

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Looking at the Midu statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour EOS DApp was slightly reduced. Among them, the number of 24-hour active users of entertainment game Texas Hold'em (1,254) increased or decreased by -0.56% compared with yesterday, and the number of 24-hour active users of entertainment game Trust Dice (971) increased or decreased by +1.68% compared with yesterday; 24 of trading platform DEXEOS Total hourly water (32,434 EOS) increased or decreased by -1.66% compared with yesterday.

V. Analyst strategy

1. Long line (1-3 years)

The long-term trend of BTC is improving. Currently, it is in the stage of partial adjustment. The market of mad cows may come in the next one to two years, and it can be added on a dip. The BTC trading of the intelligent contract platform ETH, the altcoin leader LTC, and the DPoS leader EOS is at a low point in the year, and can be configured on a dip basis to capture the opportunity of reversal.

2. Midline (1-3 months)

Short-term shocks adjust the situation, BTC is in a triangular convergence pattern. Although there is a possibility of going bad and bottoming out again, there is also the possibility of short-term quick repair. The overall downside is not large, and it can be bargain-hunting.

3. Short-term (1-3 days)

Short-term downside space is small, you can do more on dips, strictly control positions, pay attention to risks.

14 Note: Encrypted assets are high-risk assets. This document is for decision-making purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.