Market analysis on August 15th: the market is on the left, the decision is right again

Last night, the US stock market experienced a rare plunge. In fact, this situation in the United States began to appear upside down from the US bond yield in October last year. The popular point is that we went to the bank deposit and found that the bank’s interest on interest is more than the interest fixed in 5 years and 10 years. Be high! I will not say much about the economic factors and behavior factors here, including expectations, liquidity, etc., and focus on why US stocks are so stimulated because there have been three such upside downs in the United States in 1989, 2000, and 2006. Then, in the 90s, 01, and 2008, the US economic recession broke out! So now the US bond's yield curve is upside down and it will trigger the expectation of the economic crisis! Every time the US bond yields are upside down, there will be a round of economic crisis, which will trigger the reshuffling of world wealth. The cryptocurrency market has followed the US stock market's plunge yesterday. In contrast, gold is constantly expanding its space. The current encryption market has completely decoupled from gold. The lie that looks like cryptocurrency is a safe-haven asset has also been debunked. In fact, cryptocurrency is an emerging industry. From the current application situation, the risk of investing is much higher than that of stock assets, so it is hard to avoid risk. In the future, the cryptocurrency market will be more closely linked to US stocks. If US stocks may be building the top of the epic level, the cryptocurrency market will also be remodeled.


Recently, we have been warning about risks. BTC has no desire to rise at all. The momentum of rising is not strong. Recently, the benefits of cryptocurrency are quite good. However, we have seen the specific trend. BTC is the strongest trend in cryptocurrency. However, it has not tried to break through the high point of the previous rebound. Instead, it has been deflated at a high point. The trading volume has been shrinking. The wait-and-see mood has become more intense. Currently, it is vying for around 10,000 US dollars. If the market sentiment is better. Next, the target may rebound to the neckline near $11,000. If the mood is poor, it may bounce to half of the front of the negative line. After the rebound, it may return to the bottom again. It has been obtained twice at $9000. Support, the probability of a break in the third time is relatively large, so it is still dominated by control risk, falling below $9,000. I personally think there is no trend opportunity until the end of the year.


The trend of ETH is much weaker than that of BTC. BTC has not yet hit a new low, but ETH has already penetrated the low point of the previous period. At present, there is no sign of a stop-down, and more attention is given to less-moving. If there is any counter- Pumping, personally think it is a good time to leave.


BNB has been doing triangle finishing in the early stage, and now it has fallen below the triangle structure following the market downturn, but the volume of the whole decline process has not been effectively amplified, so the effectiveness of the break still needs to be observed again, if the target can stand back again. If the downtrend line is decentralized, the target will test the pressure around 60 days again. If it can't stand back, the target will continue to bottom down, and I personally think that the $24 can't be effectively supported. The risk is still relatively large.

The author's point of view is only used for learning communication, not as an investment recommendation, and does not constitute an investment basis!

This article data source: QKL123