QKL123 market analysis | Bitcoin bottoming pattern is emerging, or will converge on the uplink (0816)

Abstract: In a short period of time, the BTC bottoming pattern is emerging, and it is expected to return to the convergence interval to continue the power adjustment. As the global interest rate cuts are further strengthened, the possibility of a short-term uptrend in the market increases.

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According to QKL123 statistics, on August 16, 2019, the total market value of the global Token market was 19,043.64 billion yuan, the total market value of 24 hours increased or decreased by +3.79%, the total turnover of 24 hours was 478.142 billion yuan, and the total turnover of 24 hours changed + 4.60%, 24-hour market activity increased significantly. The market value of BTC accounted for 67.93%, which was slightly higher than yesterday (67.78%), and the market risk aversion was higher.

At 13:00, the top ten crypto assets in the market value (excluding USDT), XMR rose the most in 24 hours (+5.53%), BTC rose by +3.82% in 24 hours, ETH rose by +2.31% in 24 hours, LTC rose in 24 hours + 2.74%, EOS rose by +3.16% in 24 hours. The USDT rose by +0.18% for 24 hours, and the net inflow of funds today was 456,622,200 yuan, which was lower than yesterday (+ 689,900,000 yuan).

The Babbitt Composite Index 8138TC, 13814.61 points, rose to +3.96% in 24 hours; the emotional index of alternative.me was 31, which was significantly higher than yesterday (13), and the market performance changed from extreme fear to fear. Today's global Bitcoin Google search trend (peak 99) is slightly lower than yesterday (peak 100), close to the high point since the 7th, the top three countries in search popularity are Nigeria, Brazil and Austria.

Analyst's point of view: Bitcoin is expected to return to the convergence range for power adjustment in recent days, but the short-term market is changing rapidly, and risk averse people can wait for the bottoming out form to get involved. Recently, the global economy has shown signs of further slowdown (US debt continues to be upside down, China's economy is slowing down), and global interest rate cuts are expected to be further strengthened, which is a long-term positive for BTC.

First, the spot BTC market

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At 13 o'clock yesterday, the BTC dropped to a minimum of $9,518. The short-term air force was exhausted, and the bulls quickly counterattacked at night. Today, there is a long shadow and a bottoming pattern. Today, the BTC rebounded to a maximum of $10,433 and began to fall in volume. It was short-lived around $10,000. From the four-hour K-line, BTC is expected to go up to the recent triangle convergence area, but the short-term bottoming pattern needs to be observed before it can be confirmed.

Fund face

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As of 14:00, BTC's net capital inflow today was 3,934,100,000 yuan, which was reversed from yesterday. Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow of 124,537,100 yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net outflow of 8,244,100 yuan, the middle (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net The inflow of 40.732 million yuan, the small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net inflow of 19,306,900 yuan. There are differences in the market, and most of them are built in the middle.

2. Fundamentals

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At present, the BTC's total network computing power is 75.28 EH/s, which is slightly higher than yesterday (74.01), close to the historical high point, and the long-term upward trend has not changed. Yesterday, the number of coins destroyed was 3.985 million (historically smaller), which was significantly lower than the previous day (928.24 million). The long-term uptrend was not destroyed. Yesterday, the number of active addresses on the BTC chain was 713,700, a decrease from the previous day (76.10 million), which was close to the average of three months.

Second, the spot ETH market

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ETH linked BTC, which rebounded to 190 US dollars in the early hours of the morning, is currently fluctuating around 180 US dollars. There is no obvious amount of release, waiting for BTC to choose direction. The ETH/BTC trading pair hit a low of 0.0179 BTC in the early hours of the morning, and then oscillated up to around 0.0183 BTC, and the short-term upside could increase.

Fund face

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As of 14:00, ETH's net inflow of funds today was 100,165.20 million, which was reversed from yesterday. Among them, the large inflow (more than or equal to 1 million yuan) net inflow of 500.853 million yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net inflow of 12,889,240 yuan, in the single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net The outflow of 18.45 million yuan, the small inflow (less than 50,000 yuan) net inflow of 84,112,460 yuan. The market is mostly built with small orders.

2. Fundamentals

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Observing the Midu statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour ETH DApp increased slightly. Among them, the pledge of DAI's 24-hour total flow (13,613 ETH) increased or decreased by +21.21% compared with yesterday, the trading platform IDEX's 24-hour total flow (2,422 ETH) increased or decreased by -1.50% compared with yesterday; the game encryption hero's 24-hour active user The number (2,415) increased or decreased by +0.42% compared with yesterday; the number of 24-hour transactions (1,679) of the stable currency Paxos Standard increased or decreased by -1.29% compared with yesterday.

Third, the spot LTC market

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At 12 o'clock yesterday, LTC hit a low of 71.2 US dollars, and then rebounded to a maximum of 77.68 US dollars, but continued to decline in the early hours of this morning, currently at 72.9 US dollars. The LTC/BTC transaction rose rapidly from yesterday's low of 0.0073 BTC, and quickly fell back to 0.0074 BTC.

Fund face

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As of 14:00, the net inflow of LTC funds today was 566,376,700 yuan, a significant increase from yesterday (30,556,800 yuan). Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow is 5,180,700 yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net inflow is 11,285.47 yuan, and the net inflow (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net inflow 399.67 million yuan, a small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net inflow of 4,1964.60 million. The market is dominated by small singles.

2. Fundamentals

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At present, LTC's total network computing power is 353.50 TH/s, which is significantly lower than yesterday (417.15TH/s), which is close to the low point of two months. The number of LTC coins destroyed yesterday (1,406,600, a small historical value) was significantly lower than the previous day (883.894 million), and the long-term trend was not destroyed. Yesterday, the number of active addresses on the LTC chain was 64,800, down from the previous day (70,300), close to the three-month low.

Fourth, the spot EOS market

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Yesterday, EOS rebounded rapidly from 3.3 US dollars, and the highest rebound to 3.7 US dollars, forming a long upper shadow line, then oscillating down, currently hovering around 3.5 US dollars. The EOS/BTC trade quickly rebounded from today's low of 0.000345 BTC to around 0.00036 BTC.

Fund face

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As of 14:00, EOS's net inflow of funds today was 12,338,560 yuan, which was reversed from yesterday. Among them, the net inflow of super large single (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) is 400.88 million yuan, the net inflow of large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) is 9.127 million yuan, and the net is in the middle (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan). The inflow of 1.795.51 million yuan, the small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net inflow of 92.164 million yuan. The market is dominated by small singles.

2. Fundamentals

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Looking at the Midu statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour EOS DApp was slightly reduced. Among them, the number of 24-hour active users of entertainment game Texas Hold'em (1,227) increased or decreased by +0.49% compared with yesterday, the number of 24-hour active users of entertainment game Trust Dice (727) increased or decreased by -0.27% compared with yesterday; 24 of trading platform DEXEOS Total hourly water (35,021 EOS) increased or decreased by -1.87% compared with yesterday.

V. Analyst strategy

1. Long line (1-3 years)

The long-term trend of BTC is improving. Currently, it is in the stage of partial adjustment. The market of mad cows may come in the next one to two years, and it can be added on a dip. The BTC trading of the intelligent contract platform ETH, the altcoin leader LTC, and the DPoS leader EOS is at a low point in the year, and can be configured on a dip basis to capture the opportunity of reversal.

2. Midline (1-3 months)

Short-term shocks adjust the situation, the overall downside is not large, BTC is expected to continue to consolidate the power, but can bargain on the bargain.

3. Short-term (1-3 days)

Short-term downside space is small, you can do more on dips, strictly control positions, pay attention to risks.

14 Note: Encrypted assets are high-risk assets. This document is for decision-making purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.