Today's digital asset market is a lying market
Economist George Gilde said: "The key to economic growth is not to acquire new things in pursuit of monetary incentives, but to expand wealth through learning and discovery. The new economics believes that the root of economic growth is not the adoption of market mechanisms. Incentives and punishments to manipulate human greed and fear, but free enterprises can continually accumulate surprising knowledge through falsifiable experiments." – George Gilde, Chapter 1 of Knowledge and Power
He believes that in a good market economy, in the long run, a person's wealth and power depend on his knowledge. The more knowledge, the more wealth, the greater the power. The less knowledge, the less wealth, the less power. This is a correct way for the society to allocate economic resources and establish order. In this way, the society as a whole will become more and more affluent.
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And true business knowledge can only come from interaction with the market. In other words, the market is equivalent to a laboratory. We have an idea and then put it into the market to practice and produce a result. If it succeeds and validates the idea, then our wealth will increase and our knowledge will increase. If it fails, although wealth has shrunk, knowledge can grow. This cycle continues, knowledge continues to grow, wealth grows, and power continues to grow.
The most important quality of a good market is honesty and not lying. But the reality is far from being so beautiful. The market may be blacked out by the lab, and then deliberately give you false results and become a market for lying:
In this market, your ideas don't get the right results. However, in the short term, this does not mean that your wealth will be lost. On the contrary, many times the market that fails will give you a huge return. As a result, your wealth has increased, but knowledge has decreased and become more stupid.
But in the long run, wealth is directly proportional to knowledge, so when knowledge is reduced and people become more stupid, in the long run, wealth will decrease.
There is now a saying that someone "loses money with luck and loses by strength." In fact, in essence, because he made money by luck, he believed that the market was lying, making his knowledge less and more stupid, so in the long run, his wealth will gradually decrease.
So if you want to make money from the market, you must grow real knowledge.
Ironically, those who try to manipulate, control, and smash the market are actually using a special method to accumulate "real knowledge," that is, how to exploit market vulnerabilities, black out markets, and make money from other people's mistakes. . Therefore, their behavior is also in line with the law of “more knowledge and more wealth”, but their knowledge is about how to black out the market knowledge, how to skillfully take advantage of the wealth of others, how is it in a negative and game Winning knowledge:
It must be admitted that this kind of knowledge about how to win in the negative and the game, which is detrimental to others, is often highly efficient in accumulating wealth, especially in the short-term. But because the game is negative, every round of game will lead to a decline in overall wealth, so if everyone just wants to master such knowledge and cut each other, then it will not be long before everyone will become very poor.
The market itself has a lot of bugs. The wild market is very inefficient and can easily be hacked and fucked. One of the government's main responsibilities is to maintain the effectiveness of the market, punish those smart people who try to black out the market and harm others, and ensure that the market is fair and effective. Therefore, behind a good market economy, there must be a strong government.
Of course, in the real world, many governments often black out the market and harm others. One of the main ways is the wrong monetary system. Some even believe that the entire system of monopoly currency issuance is wrong.
Blockchain and digital assets are seen as a competitor to today's legal currency system. But the current reality is that the market built around digital currency is still in a state of chaos and disorder, and it is hacked and fucked far more than the currency and securities markets in today's mature market economies, beyond its claim. The market to compete with and replace.
The current digital asset market is a messy market, a bad market, an ineffective market, a lying market, and almost all of the other markets except Bitcoin are heavily manipulated and interfered.
The worst place in this market is really not to make you lose money. On the contrary, many times in the short term you can make money with inexplicable luck. The worst place in this market is to lie to you and make you more stupid. As an ordinary market participant, after your thoughts and strategies are thrown in, any results and signals returned to you by this market are false and not credible, and can not enhance your knowledge. If you dare to believe these signals and appearances, you will definitely become more and more stupid, and in the long run you will definitely lose wealth.
To sum up, whether you want to participate in the market depends on whether you can learn real knowledge.
Return to basic economic and business logic
How to do?
The first way is to go to the market manipulator and learn to take advantage of the wealth of others. Because this process can indeed accumulate real knowledge, it can also grow wealth in a certain way. However, this kind of knowledge is a malignant knowledge. In this way, it will not take long before the entire market will shrink completely and cease to exist. Or it is defeated by others in the subsequent game, and is punished by the regulator, in short, the sustainability is not good.
Another way is to return to rationality, return to basic economic logic, and strive for long-term success when the market is ineffective, lying, and immature.
Yuan Haoming, CEO of Fire Coin China, asked the audience in a speech in Xi'an: Do you prefer to believe the facts, or are you more willing to believe in logic?
If the experimental environment is objective and honest, we must of course believe in the facts. But if the experimental environment is manipulated and lying, then we must stick to the logic.
The current digital asset market is clearly the latter, so we have to return to the basic logic.
In the current blockchain and the pass-through economy, there are three basic logics I can find.
The first is universal business logic: a business, if it can give investors high returns, it must be able to make money. If it can make money, it must be because it meets the needs of its customers and is more efficient than its competitors, either with higher productivity or higher transaction efficiency.
This is no different from the business logic of the Internet age and even the industrial age.
The second logic is the value logic of open finance: using blockchain technology to build open financial infrastructure and services on the Internet can further expand trading freedom, reduce trust costs, reduce transaction friction, and improve transaction efficiency.
The third logic is the value logic of the CIS economy: the CIS economy uses a transparent and open source smart contract as a tool to establish a transparent and open incentive system among the Internet community to measure the contribution of each individual and give an effective economy and Non-economic incentives to establish large-scale, high-level, automated and autonomous online collaboration, reducing management costs and transaction risks, and increasing the efficiency of value creation and trading.
Now look at the blockchain project, we must start from these three logics. The first basic business logic must be met, and then, if it belongs to an open financial project, it must conform to the second logic. Of course, the one I care most about and spend the most time and energy is the third logic, which is the logic of the general economic.
Starting from the logic of the pass-through economy, I believe that the basic ideas and logic of most industry-level blockchain projects today are serious. For example, over-emphasis on decentralization, over-emphasis on the unmodifiability of rules, negative management, single economic incentives, and so on. After all, these are cognitive problems. I don’t realize that the essence of the CIS economy is a business management technology, a technology that manages the collaboration of large-scale, dynamic Internet communities, but blindly open finance from Bitcoin. Imagine some surface experience in the class project, and the results simply cannot turn. Many projects have been deceived by the current market of lying, taking the illusion as a fact, and lie as a knowledge, and smashed his face. What's more, some project parties simply confuse the same, clearly knowing that it is a trick to deceive people, not only accepting the whole, but also intensifying. This practice has intensified over the past few years, causing many participants to lose confidence in this market, and it has also caused many projects to be confused. Even the blockchain and the pass-through economy are simply false propositions.
At this stage of market inefficiency, we can only act according to logic, reject the deception, misleading and temptation of market illusion, and stick to the bottom line of logical law. In the long run, the market will respond to the right actions and reward them. Open finance and the Compulsory Economy will inevitably lead to new disciplines and industries, create tremendous value, and powerfully influence everyone's financial situation and personal achievements.