After the first half of the Bitcoin Xiaoyangchun, many investors in the industry have been looking forward to a moment: that is, Bitcoin funds can be diverted to the altcoin, helping them to copy the top of the mountain and the mountainside, they will get rid of it soon, especially It is a lot of public chain investors who originally expected their assets to be multiplied several times, and the result turned into a fraction of the principal. However, contrary to expectations, this wave of hot money pushing up Bitcoin seems to have no interest in the altcoin. Finally, one day, the projects that investors participated in were on the layout of the industry media. The result was unexpectedly negative news. Recently, some media reports, the public chain industry, especially China’s public chain projects, have fallen into sinking. Even the founding team of some projects have already taken the funds raised to buy bitcoin to play financial management, and if this situation explains what it is, it is to verify the author's previous point of view – at most one year, cryptocurrency The public chain bubble in the market will burst, and investors who want to achieve class crossing through these projects can only have a dream of emptiness.
First, the giant self-starting stove, the public chain bubble burst?
Why is the public chain industry so concerned in the near future? Many people may not have noticed that the fall of 2019 is a very delicate node, that is, the "lower-level public chain heat" that began in the second half of 2017. It has been about two years or so, according to the development cycle of Internet products. If a team hasn't made a decent product for two years, then the necessity of your product, or even whether the entire team should still exist, should be studied and researched, because in a fast-developing contemporary society, potential The customer demand will change quite a lot in two years. Even if this demand still exists, your competitors will not cross the border to seize this market space, it is hard to say.
The current public chain industry is in such a very embarrassing state. First of all, on the demand side, the industry has spent so much time, still not explaining the necessity of APP information in various industries. On the supply side, the Internet giants with valuable traffic all choose to build their own hands. None of BaaS has adopted the public chain solution currently on the market, just as they have chosen to build their own cloud in the cloud computing industry. And many of the underlying public chains that once wanted to be the next Android and Apple system, with the exception of DEX and games, there is hardly anything that can be displayed on the table.
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The demand space is limited, the competition is unprecedentedly squeezed by the giants, and what happens next is not difficult to predict. At the end of last year, an article "The chain bubble will also burst?" In the battle between the IT giants BaaS and the underlying public chain group army , the author once predicted that the bursting of the underlying public chain bubble is likely to occur within a year, when N projects will die in silence, According to recent news reports and statistics, this prediction has basically come true. Although many projects have not announced a big failure, but as a company, it is basically no different from the leather bag company. Some project co-founders and even the founders themselves have left low-key, leaving only one Occasionally, some trading volume projects hang on the trading platform, showing their own weak presence.
Second, the cottage project may be the future, but not yet
The demise of the public chain bubble actually illustrates one thing: in the current cryptocurrency market, the public chain tokens that you can see, the possibility of turning over on the fundamentals is already small. I believe that many of my friends have long been unaware of the fact that in the past two years, many investors have already discovered that the new thing of the underlying public chain is far from being as inscrutable as people think, and even less in the absence of market value management. In the case of a market value that rises a thousand times. It can be said that those investors who still maintain the concept of "value investment" have not had much hope for most of the underlying public chain, and those who have not yet given up are mostly holding the following views: Anyway, it has fallen into this way. Even if it is sold, it is not worth a few dollars. It is better to wait for the hot money "Wang Shi" to come to save us someday, but also to make a run after several times.
However, this kind of good wish was also shattered in the so-called “Xiaoyangchun” in the first half of the year. The investors of the altcoin were frustrated and found that their projects did not rebound sharply with Bitcoin, although there was a certain The signs of rising, but the extent is far less than Bitcoin, let alone return to the high point, and even let a lot of people can not do it. This actually means that the funds are not even interested in speculating the altcoin. This may be because they feel that the subject of "public chain" is no longer attractive, or that the latter's trading volume is too low, even if they are shipped after the price is raised, not many people will pick up.
From this point of view, we can draw a conclusion, although the altcoin in addition to Bitcoin is still the most likely target for ordinary investors to achieve class crossing, as if it was launched in 2015~2017. The various projects represented by the workshop are the same, but you must now clearly understand one thing: that is, many of the fundamentals that have been defeated by the fundamentals have no potential to rise. For example, the current cryptocurrency market is a bit like the state of 2014. Maybe after a year or two, there will be a lot of altcoins like Ethereum, NEO, and IOTA that allow many people to cross the class, but this way The project is still not seen in the market, even if it is the most favored bit stock at that time.
In fact, when we look back at history, we find that this is not a special case. In the figure below, the author shows the top 10 projects in the past few years of cryptocurrency market value. Many new friends may be surprised to find that in addition to some classic projects like BTC, LTC and XRP, the rest of the project itself. I don’t even know one. What is the reason? A: Later, it has not fallen, or it has already dropped hundreds of people on the market value list, or it has died directly and has been removed from many platforms. As for the urban legends that have been rumored in the past two years that "holding a certain currency for several years and can skyrocket millions of times", it is more like a description of the survivor's deviation.
Figure: Top 10 cryptocurrency market capitalization values from 2014 to 2018
Under the so-called daylight, there is nothing new. If nothing unexpected, today’s cryptocurrency market will repeat yesterday’s story. Now many of the so-called “mainstream projects” you see on the market value list will fade with themselves. And the rise of latecomers has become "non-mainstream". Before the next trustworthy blockchain concept emerges, switching to the hedging instruments such as mainstream platform currency and bitcoin as soon as possible is a strategy worth considering, even though It's hard for the project to help you achieve a class leap, but at least they won't be like a lot of public currency coins in the past, and you will realize an alternative "hierarchical crossing" – that is, returning from rich to poor.