Although Bitcoin (BTC) has not yet returned to the upward trend with certainty, its performance in these days has been much better than it was earlier in the week, when BTC fell 8% and fell below $9,600. At present, Bitcoin has returned to more than 10,000 US dollars, temporarily reported 10,370 US dollars. However, one model tells us that the current price may be overvalued and there is still some room for decline.
Bitcoin is still overvalued?
After hitting $12,300 on August 6, Bitcoin still did not break through this important pressure level, and then continued to fall. On August 15, it fell to $9518, with an amplitude of 22.62%. Although the BTC quickly returned to more than $10,000, the rebound in prices could mean further declines.
Industry fund manager and cryptocurrency analyst Timothy Peterson recently released a model on Twitter that links the premium of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) to the value of BTC.
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Grayscale's products trade on the over-the-counter market, but their prices tend to be higher than the actual value of BTC. Peterson's model forecast shows that since the beginning of the year, the higher the premium of GBTC on the bitcoin spot, the higher the spot price of BTC. According to his analysis, the current premium is gradually decreasing, and Bitcoin is currently "overvalued, and reasonable prices should be between $8,000 and $10,000."
This is in line with the massive analysis of head-cryption traders who believe Bitcoin may fall to the $9,000-$8,000 range in the next few days. The trader Financial Survivalism recently thought his target price was $8,775 and it seems likely to be reached.
He added that some moving averages also have short-term “death crossings”, which strongly suggests that bitcoin prices will fall further in the coming days.
The analyst first mentioned this goal last week, when he claimed that as buying pressures fell and selling pressure increased, he believed that Bitcoin would hit the bottom of the short-term price channel in the coming week.