Not long ago, the US CCN News Network wrote in a report: "A set of Pokemon cards in 1999 sold for $100,000 at the auction – its value exceeded Bitcoin. "
The reason why this card sells sky-high price is because of its scarcity: first, the number of cards is very small when it is first released; second, the later version is completely different from this version, which makes 1999 This year's set of cards is particularly scarce, occupying the status of God in the hearts of card collectors.
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At the end of the report, CCN raised a provocative question: "The bitcoin, also known for its scarcity, is not as good as a card? It may be time to start frying a Pokemon card."
Misleading bitcoin scarcity
The above price comparison problem is actually a trap. Compared with the dimension, if the unit price is on the market value, the value is high and low. It is self-evident. Of course, we are not coming to the value of Pokemon cards and Bitcoin today. What I want to talk about is the commonality of the two: scarcity.
The card is out of print, and the bitcoin has a constant total of 21 million pieces. This amount of scarcity is the main selling point of this card, not the main selling point of bitcoin.
I have been waiting for a long time in the currency circle. I believe that everyone has heard a lot of stories about "selling bitcoin scarcity":
For example: "There are only 21 million bitcoins. According to the world's heads, one person can't even get one. If you have one bitcoin, you will lead 98% of the world's population….. "
Another example: "85% of Bitcoin has been dug up, and getting bitcoin is getting more and more difficult. This scarcity will lead to higher bitcoin price… "
In terms of quantity, Bitcoin is indeed scarce – the total amount is constant, about 4 million pieces are always silent in history, others buy one more, and there is one less in the market.
But think about it, the value of bitcoin and cards comes from the scarcity of quantity?
Where is the real scarcity of Bitcoin?
Bitcoin used to be an important payment method for dark nets, but before it appeared, Lego toys played the role of dark net hard currency for a long time , and even many gangsters used it to launder money.
There are three main reasons why a colorful plastic toy has a payment attribute:
First, scarcity, with the above card is a reason, the factory is out of print;
Second, non-reproducibility, high technical content leads to high cost of fraud;
Third, the value of the consensus, the person who trades in the dark network recognizes its value.
The scarcity and non-replicability are not the key points, and a valuable consensus is the key.
First, the scarcity of numbers is not really scarce. Although there are only 21 million bitcoins, the smallest unit of digitized bitcoin is Cong (one hundredth of a bitcoin), and this severability naturally breaks the scarcity of numbers.
Even if a altcoin only issues 2,100 pieces, the number of scarcity is ten times that of bitcoin. People don't buy it because of this. Just like the Essex sent by Aisis last year, there are only 500 pieces, and the unit price seems to be higher. Bitcoin, but in fact it is the left hand and the right hand, the volume of the day is not even 100 pieces.
Second, it cannot be copied or a key factor in value. The code of Bitcoin can be copied. There are indeed countless bitcoin forks and tokens in the market, but in the face of thousands of tokens, the largest market value ratio is finally recognized. Only Bitcoin is widely recognized.
Like Lego, the value of Bitcoin is ultimately based on consensus. The scarcity of consensus is a key factor in the appreciation of Bitcoin. Just like the Pokemon card mentioned at the beginning, it can sell $100,000 in the card circle. This consensus circle is not necessarily the case. In the eyes of outsiders, it may be a fairly special card. It may be too much to spend 100 on it.
When you want something that others want, there are more people who hold this kind of idea in the market. This thing naturally has a value attribute. Gold and French currency are the same.
Although "things are rare," the pursuit of scarcity is actually a human defect . To be exaggerated, people's lives are fighting against scarcity, hoping to find the best schools, find the best jobs, and enjoy them. The best treatment.
In the investment market, people often use scarcity to say things, such as fried tulips, fried postal card, fried Pu'er tea, fried shoes, etc., and finally set aside a batch of investors.
If the scarcity is too heavy, people will inevitably fall into the hype of hype.
It doesn't make sense to bind the value to the 21 million figure. The value of Bitcoin is ultimately determined by the number of consensus users. If you want to have a big outbreak of Bitcoin, it is better to go and see if you are willing to exchange the French currency and gold. Whether there are more people in Bitcoin.
Source: Block wave