Video | "8 Questions" Dr. Cheng Xiaoming, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences: There must be a world currency in the future, the key lies in the design logic
Cheng Xiaoming, an expert in equity financing research, and deputy director of the China Chain Industry Association Blockchain Professional Committee, he was praised by the industry as the "new three-board godfather", and has unique insights and in-depth theoretical research on the NEEQ, OTC market, and technology finance. . Since 2017, he has focused on blockchain technology and has put forward many new ideas and is the pioneer of chain reform.
What is SPT?
From last year to this year, my research focused on the blockchain. The blockchain was initially focused on because the NEEQ had no liquidity problems. Without liquidity, there is no transaction. Without trading, there is no pricing problem. Without pricing, the financing function of the New Third Board, including the M&A function, is difficult to play. I found that the blockchain, including the digital exchange, is relatively open. I wonder if I can find some ways to solve the problem of liquidity in the blockchain field.
The STO that started in the United States last year was very hot, and STO solved the problem of a large number of air coins brought by ICO. The United States has certain rationality in doing STO, but STO is not necessarily suitable in China, so I propose the concept of SPT. "S" is "Security", which is to map stocks into Tokens to trade.
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The company converts the existing stock into Token, maps the existing shares into Token, trades in the form of Token, indirectly realizes the trading of the shares, solves the problem of the transaction, and then solves the financing problem.
Of course, any new product will be quite difficult to land, and SPT is no exception. One of the biggest difficulties of SPT is compliance. Only under the premise of compliance can we talk about the possibility of landing. Second is the risk of the market.
After studying the blockchain for one year, I found that the role of the blockchain is bigger than originally thought, and there is room for trying to solve the problem of the new three boards.
Our country advocates a currency-free blockchain. In June last year, the market was asking for “coin reform.” I think the concept of “coin reform” is easily controversial. I proposed the concept of “chain reform”. “Share reform” is to let enterprises go public, IPO, and equity financing as the core resource integration. The meaning of "chain reform" is to further develop on the basis of share reform, and to build a good enterprise in the securities market and to form it into an upstream and downstream industrial chain.
The blockchain was the first to solve the problem of the Byzantine General, and how to solve the problem of how to form a consensus among the dispersed equal subjects. In the upstream and downstream industry chain, the integration between enterprises also encounters similar problems, because enterprises are equal subjects, not subordinate relations, and even there is no direct equity relationship between them. Chain reform is to integrate upstream and downstream enterprises by means of blockchain, solve their information communication problems and solve consensus problems. On this basis, issue industry coins similar to STO.
I have always believed that the best application scenario for blockchain financing is neither the issue currency nor the company's stock. Because the currency is linked to government sovereignty, stocks have been 400 years old, and sending another STO is similar to stocks, which will not have much impact.
It is the intermediate state. This is the upstream and downstream industry chain. It builds the industrial chain through the blockchain. At the same time, it issues a currency for internal use, which is used for raw material procurement and supply payment between upstream and downstream industries. You can understand it as a Internal checks are industrial coins.
The basic logic of the industry currency is similar to stocks, that is, upstream and downstream enterprises jointly set up a fund, and upstream and downstream enterprises pay management fees to the fund according to a certain proportion of income or profit. This fund has income, like a listed company has income. With income and profit, you can support the value of Token. It can be understood as the STO created by the upstream and downstream industry chain, or a special stock.
The fluctuation of this currency is similar to stocks, usually the value of the stock is anchored to a single company, and the industry currency here depends on multiple companies. The performance is doing very well and the value of the currency is improved. For example, in some downstream enterprises, the cost of purchasing is lower if the number of coins is used.
For example, the metallurgical industry talks about industry coins, the upstream of the metallurgical industry is the mine, the middle reaches are steel plants, and the downstream is the building materials for automobiles. The mine supplies ore, the steel plant refines the ore into steel, and the automaker buys the steel to make the car, and the coin is the metallurgical coin.
Choose two or three better companies in each of the upper, middle and lower reaches. If these upstream and downstream enterprises add up to 100 billion in annual income, these companies will set up a foundation together and follow the annual income of the company. % pays management fees to this fund, which has a management fee of 3 billion.
If the Foundation issues 10 billion Tokens, each Token's revenue is similar to EPS, and Token's return is 3 gross. This Token also has a P/E ratio after listing in the future. Like the stock P/E ratio, the normal P/E ratio is 20 times. The profit of each Token originally 3 cents, after the transaction, its price may be about 6 dollars.
Upstream and downstream companies divide this 100 billion Token according to their contributions. For example, one of the steel mills has a token of 10 billion in accordance with its contribution, and it has a token of 6 billion. When it purchased ore from the mine, it used to purchase 10 million ore, and paid 10 million yuan to the ore. Now it can pay 10 million Token to the ore, which is about 1.67 million tokens.
More industrial coins can be understood as industry stocks strictly, and its value formation logic is similar to stocks. Then why not use stocks directly to solve them, do you have to use industrial coins? Because some companies are not listed, stock registration and settlement companies are very troublesome, and there is no such flexibility.
Triple integral theory
I recently proposed a new theory called "triple points". After completing triple points, I can create a world currency. The industry coin is only the first step to build a world currency. The value of the company determines the value of the industry chain, and the value of each industry determines the value of the national currency.
The second point is to re-integrate the coins of various industries once and integrate them to form the national currency. The economic competitiveness of our country is determined by each industry such as metallurgical industry, machinery industry, agriculture, and chemical industry. The strength of our national economic competition determines the value of the renminbi, which is the value of the legal currency.
The first point is from the company to the industry currency, and the second point is the industry currency of each industry to form the national currency. The currency of each country is re-integrated once, which is the world currency.
Libra, which Facebook wants to release, is not an independent new currency. It simply mixes the points of the four currencies of the US dollar, the euro, the pound, and the Japanese yen to form Libra. Facebook Zuckerberg is doing this three points, and he directly entered the third point.
We want to do it from the first and second points, and finally form the third point. The logic is to accumulate from the most basic step by step: from the stock market, from the company to the industrial chain, from the industrial chain industry to the legal currency, and then the legal currency of each country is combined, it is the world currency.
I believe that there will be a world currency in the future. The problem is only how to build it.
One of the goals that Bitcoin was created was to become the world currency. Bitcoin was the first time to realize the issuance of private currency, but it has many constraints. One major drawback is that it does not have an additional mechanism.
We know that the currency value of the currency should be stable. In principle, there should not be a lot of money just because the currency is stored, and the gain is due to the appreciation within the currency. This is the logic that does not conform to the currency. The value of the currency should be stable. If this is violated, it becomes a speculative product. But because bitcoin is always 21 million, it is inherently impossible to become a currency, it can only become digital gold.
Why did the dollar have to be decoupled from gold? One of the reasons is that the world's market is getting bigger and bigger, the scale of transactions is getting bigger and bigger, and the wealth is getting more and more. If the dollar is always bound to your gold, because gold is scarce, it means that the dollar can't satisfy so many transactions. demand. Libra can solve the problem of currency stability not because Libra itself has an extension mechanism because it always binds the dollar and the EU. It is like a stable currency, similar to the USDT, except that the USDT is only bound to one dollar of the currency, Libra is bound to multiple currencies, so strictly speaking Libra does not create a new currency.
Libra did not hit the central bank, it covered the currency issued by the central bank to the world without a dead end. It is the impact of many small and medium-sized countries, especially the relatively backward countries. Because many people now may have less confidence in their domestic currency than Libra, he is more willing to hold Libra.
Libra has made the dollar cover the world without a dead end, and it has also hit many commercial banks, especially the Tencent WeChat payment and Alipay in China. Originally, many relatively poor places in the third world should be covered by our WeChat and Alipay. As a result, I did not expect that the Facebook of the United States would be the first to go and cover this dead corner.
Libra pushed the original French currency to a place that was previously unreachable. It built a plane and took the American army from the place where it could not go to those no-man's areas, but it was not a new army. Libra is only bound to the legal currency today. Who can guarantee that it will be decoupled from the law one day? On the day of decoupling, Libra can really call a new currency, and it really shocked the country's central bank.
We want to solve the problem from the essence of the currency – triple points. First create the industry chain industry currency, then generate legal currency from the industry currency, and take the French currency to the industry currency, on this basis to make the French currency into the world currency. Zuckerberg is the third most important. He directly combines the world's major French currency into a new currency, similar to ETF.
He has this strength and he has this influence. We can only start from the first floor in China. Although it is very tired, I feel more meaningful. This is the complete opening of the stock circle and the currency circle from industry, from stocks to currencies, from stocks to currencies, from industry to finance.
The independent legal currency of all independent countries does not mean that the world currency has nothing to do with the law, but the value and logic of each country's legal currency is not entirely dominated by the politics of this country, but is dominated by the basic economic situation of this country. Based on the economic strength of the country, rather than an artificial adjustment, this gives the world an expectation. We know that the value of the currency is not based on the adjustment of your policy. It is not artificially regulated or even manipulated. This is fair and reasonable. The country’s economic development is good and the value of the currency is rising. This is reasonable.
If it is only because of policy adjustments, first, everyone is at a loss, and I don’t know what the policy will be. Second, it is not fair, because it is highly probable that it will obtain improper wealth through financial behavior.
Blockchain and demographic dividend
The blockchain was the first to support some of the technical support of private central banks and private commercial banks. Since it can support the private sector to operate a financial system, it is actually a social organization, so in theory it can be used elsewhere.
For China, the blockchain is very meaningful. As we all know, our biggest advantage lies in the large number of people, but many people also bring a problem, that is, the efficiency of organization is relatively low. From the central tube to a county, this central level is very much.
The leadership of the government is of course the most important, but on this basis, we also need to mobilize some private enterprises, a kind of private force, such as some civil organizations, especially the combination of some enterprises in the commercial field. Then this requires a blockchain. It is a very good way of organizing. Of course, we have everything under the leadership of the party and the government to do this work.
In addition to the usual meaning of blockchain to solve organizational problems and financial problems, blockchain has a special meaning for our country. Because China is the world's most populous country, in a sense, China needs the most blocks. chain. Blockchain has the best application scenarios in China, just like the Internet. Now China is a big Internet country in the world. China's Internet technology is very developed, and our Internet industry may rank first.
Alibaba, why is Tencent produced in China? Because of the demographic dividend. Therefore, I believe that the application of the blockchain in China will be the world's number one. Key blockchain We must use this technology well, develop it healthily, use it in the right place, and participate in the country's economic development and social development. If I can do this, I believe that the blockchain will be very bright in China.
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