How is the contract master made? Deep analysis of cryptocurrency derivatives 丨SheKnows interview

As the most important part of the ecological development of cryptocurrency, trading has developed since the birth of Bitcoin and is no longer limited to pure currency transactions, legal currency transactions, and so on. Encrypted currency derivatives, such as contracts, futures, and even ETF concepts, are rapidly evolving and become an important part of the cryptocurrency trading ecosystem. In particular, contract trading has become a must for the exchange.

Ba Babit's first community interview section, SheKnows, specially planned the exchange on August 19th and August 20th. Yesterday, from the perspective of the exchange, we discussed the various new gameplays of the exchange, the new challenges faced by them, and the development plan for the future. Today we are standing on the perspective of traders and discussing the trading mode of cryptocurrencies. . The guests who sat in the discussion included the contract of the big god Banmu Xia , the founder of the contract emperor Du Wan (small jingle) , the derivatives exchange FTX COO Constance , and of course the Babbitt senior reporter Qiu Xiangyu took the role of the host, the guests During the discussion, the “transactions” that investors are most concerned about were subjected to intense ideological collisions.


So, if you love someone, let him open the contract, because there is heaven; if you hate someone, let him open the contract, because there is hell. In the ever-changing market, every market volatility tests the skill and mind of traders. Therefore, some people say that trading is an art of the door, and it is also a lonely inner cultivation. Let's uncover the veil of "transactions".

Need to be especially reminded that the contract is risky, you need to be cautious when opening a position .

The contract in the eyes of the contract master: How is the master made? What kind of mentality should you maintain as a master?

Qiu Xiangyu: Lu Xun said that ten gambling and nine losses. Why are there so many people playing contracts and futures? How do you perceive the contract transaction?

Banmu Xia : Futures contracts have the property of rapidly growing wealth, which is what most people yearn for. Contract trading is a very interesting and not easy thing to do, and it is very difficult for most people to make money in this market. There are two or three painful experiences of losing money, but it is good to withdraw cash in time, and the market is full of profits, so losing more will not affect life.

Tinker Bell : Almost everyone enters the market in stock, most of them are in the spot quilt and can't make up the position. I chose futures and wanted to get more chips through chips to turn around. The contract is a challenge project that is indispensable for mentality, technology, continuous learning, and risk control. It takes a long time to cultivate and establish its own trading system.

Constance : The contract itself is a financial derivatives tool. The market is up and down, and users can take advantage of a tool to hedge risk.

First, contract transactions can increase the user's capital utilization through leverage. The second point is that the contract provides the market with short-selling and hedging channels. This not only inhibits the market bubble, but also injects more liquidity into the market, giving users greater trading space. Even in a bear market, transactions can be active. Third, more innovative products can also be presented in the form of contracts.

Of course, high leverage, while having high returns, also means high risk. A trading concept that needs to be advocated is: always have the concept of stop-loss and stop-loss, low-leverage trading, and control risk. The past transactions are all experiences, and they also learned the importance of stop-loss and stop-loss.

what's the situation? The guests actually showed love and sprinkled dog food on the spot?

Qiu Xiangyu: Encrypted transactions are uninterrupted 24 hours a day, 7 days, and sometimes extremes will occur in the middle of the night. Is there still time to get along with the object? How to balance the money and work?

Half-wood summer : I usually have a commission to stop the profit and stop loss, and often shut down to sleep, so it is okay. I found a little easier job to balance the contradiction between the speculative coin and the work.

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PS: It's really speculating, working, falling in love, and it's not wrong. The excuses for single dogs are getting less and less.

coming! What are the stunts of contract masters?

Qiu Xiangyu: Half-wood summer is a technical god. Is there any simple tips to share with everyone? The contract emperor often takes the data to analyze the market, and what trading strategies are there? What experience has Constance, who has also worked as a trader?

Banmu Xia : In fact, I am really a small white gambler. I recently lost my gambling and the profits have been retreated a lot. To say skills, the first is to withdraw cash regularly, it is better to withdraw the principal early; the second is to find a high profit-and-loss ratio to open a bill, when you make money, this is a good time, when you lose money, you earn More time when gambling began to grow.

In fact, I will have very little technical analysis. I definitely have a certain role in watching the technical aspects. But I can only look at the mentality if I can make money. I can insist that every single one enters the market when the profit and loss is relatively high. Even the 50% winning rate can be Profitable. The contradiction between the two can't be solved. We can only remind ourselves to be patient. The more white, the more likely we like to trade frequently. We can try to open the market and wait for the development of the market. Sometimes you will find that the short position is also very interesting.

Tinker Bell : You can take an example from my Weibo [Bit Contract Xiao Dang]. On July 28th, OKEx's quarterly price was 9350usd, suggesting that the BTC multi-military main position entered the market and then rose to the vicinity of OKEx quarter 12500usd. At that time, the judgment was based on the huge amount of contract for the Emperor. The OKEx sold 82w empty orders and 3w multiple orders in the same quarter. [OKEx is a change every time. The multiple orders you see are not necessarily more than one. 】, and BitMEX sold 2260w more than one single, 1089w empty single. The two futures exchanges gave such a clear signal that the probability of a rise in the market was too high.

Constance : There are many kinds of professional traders. In fact, if we look at a single transaction, you can't see whether this is a professional trader or a small one. But if you go to see the net curve of the account in a month, it is easy to judge whether the account is a small trade or a professional trader.

Another big difference is that professional traders are often accustomed to market volatility and will look at fluctuations more objectively and look for trading opportunities. But small spreads are easily affected by fluctuations, and transactions are more emotional and emotionally oriented.

This is a photo of our office. Each trader is faced with six 30-inch displays:

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Make money with a single stable? Can you eat leeks?

Qiu Xiangyu: It is actually very popular now. As a real V and platform, what do the two think about the order? Can you really earn money with the "Amaranth"?

Banmu Xia: Everyone is sure to follow the higher-yielding traders in the market. It is naturally better to trade with these people than to earn a higher success rate than those who have low earnings or losses. However, you should pay attention to the transaction price and leverage ratio of others, and don't always think about it. In fact, more important to the order is to learn the timing and position control of people with high income, including the timing and position of the loss, and the success of others as their own experience, the lessons of others' failures as their own lesson.

Tinker Bell : I must say the firm before saying the order. The emergence of the real market, the real show of the strength of the traders, but also defeated some of the ghosts and snakes, to some extent purified the environment of the second level of the currency.

The order can be used to intuitively learn the excellent traders' operating ideas, position control, and their stress response when the market comes.

Futures earning money is a comprehensive study. It has been answered in the past. The follow-up also needs to have good basic skills in order to achieve positive results. Otherwise, it is easy to enter the situation with whoever overturns the car.

Take profit and stop loss, bargain-hunting and escape from the top. This is a compulsory course for teachers. It is a university question.

Qiu Xiangyu: Escape to the top and bottom-hunting is an eternal problem. At the same time, learning stop-loss and take-profit is the necessary ability to trade profit. In this regard, what is the experience to share with everyone?

Banmu Xia : Looking back at all the previous transactions, when the rate of return increases, it is a good time to stop the profit and stop loss. When the rate of return drops sharply, there is no time for the profit and loss to be blind and confident. The stop loss is suitable for the timing of the entry, such as doing more at the important support position, and stopping the loss, the loss will be small. At the same time, the implementation of strict stop loss also requires strict position control, the position is large, it is difficult to make a firm stop loss.

It is hard to guess the top and bottom of the market. Most of the short-term trading attempts to re-account to guess will be very bad. But the time span is longer, and there are some consensus features at the top and bottom of the market, which are common features of all trading markets. For example, at the bottom, there will be a long process of bottoming the bottom, accompanied by a gradual shrinkage of the volume; at the top, there will be a sharp increase in trading volume, and market volatility will intensify.

Tinker Bell : The trader's most need to avoid these two operations. A trend is terminated and will be tested at least 2 times, or even 3-4 times. After repeated confirmation, the trend terminator is a comfortable operation. This also avoids continuous guessing in the middle of the mountain.

After the contract, the exchange competes for the option trading highland, and the next exchange hegemon is born out of the option?

Qiu Xiangyu: I recently saw OKEx also launch options trading. What does Constance think about options trading? Is it very different from contract trading in terms of threshold and operational difficulty?

Constance : Options have always been a product that has been discussed in many digital currency derivatives. Currently there is an option product in the market, but its actual trading volume is not high. If the option is really needed as everyone says, why is this situation not reflected in the existing option product? I think the current liquidity of the digital currency options market is not so good, which makes the risk control of options trading more difficult. Especially from the perspective of the exchange, it is not easy to do the liquidity and risk control of options.

But from another perspective, the better the platform on-line options, the more favorable the derivatives trading market will be, thus improving the overall liquidity and transaction effectiveness. So for OKEx as the leader of the digital currency exchange, I am still looking forward to the options they have introduced.

At present, the digital currency contract market will be larger than the options market, so the threshold for contracts should be lower for digital currencies. There are differences, but the specific threshold, or look at the customer's own choice, which transaction is more suitable for their trading needs. In my opinion, contracts and futures trading have thresholds that require users to have certain financial knowledge and risk control awareness.

FTX plans to launch options in the fourth quarter of this year, depending on market conditions.

The exchanges are dominated by the hegemony. Is the future pattern a three-point world or a unified world?

Qiu Xiangyu: Now that the contract exchange is very competitive, how does Constance look at the current pattern? How to attract more users to join derivatives trading?

Constance : In the market of last year's exchanges, many transactions were all spread out, APIs were not up to standard, and liquidity was poor. With the development of the overall market, everyone is slowly improving, and the overall level of the industry is also improving. At the same time, everyone is constantly trying new ways to drain the exchange.

This surface looks fiercely competitive, but the actual differentiation is very large. Although there are a lot of new things coming out, there is not much exploration of the transaction itself. What we see is more to drain through some new operating modes.

In the short-term future, I think the biggest competition lies in leveraged trading and digital currency derivatives trading. The overall trading volume of derivatives in the market is also rising rapidly. More and more exchanges are trading on leveraged trading and digital currency derivatives, but there are not many really good derivatives. Most exchanges that emerged in 2018 have similar platforms and product designs, and exchange products have become assimilated. However, in the second half of 2019, if you want to highlight the encirclement and attract more users to join, you need to have more innovative trading products based on the guarantee of risk control.

Predicting the future, grasping the opportunity is equivalent to acquiring the wealth code. How do the great gods view the future development of the market?

Qiu Xiangyu: What do you think of the market in the second half or even next year? The mainstream currency is so miserable now, can you still get up?

Banmu Xia : Still looking forward to the market for Bitcoin next year, the rise should be a strong consensus. The mainstream currency may break out like a 17-year-old after bitcoin reaches a high point, then suddenly walks away and goes to zero.

Tinker Bell : BTC's bull market. The mainstream currency ETH has a chance. In the long run, EOS and XRP think that it is already embarrassing. Other mainstream currencies cannot give speculation. There are left bsv bch etc and ltc that have been halved.

Constance : The trend in the second half of the year is currently at a critical watershed. My personal forecast for the digital currency market in the second half of the year is a wide range of shocks and strong consolidation.

In addition, the changes in the entire market also depends on the performance of all parties within the digital currency ecology. If, as in 2018, the exchanges are running out of money and the air currency is pulled, the overall situation will not be too optimistic. It seems that these conditions have generally decreased in 2019.