Yesterday, the greed index reached a new low, and even there is already the possibility of returning to zero.
The picture above shows the fear and greed index of the past 365 days, with 0 representing “extreme fear” and 100 representing “extreme greed”.
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Everyone also saw that the data was as low as yesterday. 5. What is the concept of this number? The big bear market in the second half of the 18th and early 19th did not have such a low greed index, which means that it is already an absolute panic.
To say that people are: when Bitcoin is more than 3,000 US dollars, people are not so flustered.
Of course, the indicators are lagging, but by comparing the market trend and the greed & panic index in the last six months, we can find some interesting things, such as I will give you a few times to see the recent big market.
The first is the recent market, how the recent market is clear, and then the greed & panic index gives the following tips:
And in early August? (In early August, bitcoin prices soared, rebounding from nine thousand to 11,000+)
And when the price in June continues to break new highs or even close to $14,000? The hint of the greedy index is this:
In fact, this also shows an unchanging truth that Buffett made clear a few decades ago:
People are always greedy as prices continue to rise, and they are increasingly panicking as prices continue to fall.
But despite knowing this point and knowing the greed index, most people still can't escape this idea. If you think you will continue to rise, you will continue to fall. When you are sideways, you will continue to fall.
Buffett's classic saying is that when someone else is afraid, I am greedy, and when others are greedy, I have to fear.
Many people are just the opposite. When others are greedy, he is more greedy. When others are flustered, he has already panicked several batches.
But obviously, like the text in this picture, when the greed index is extremely high, that is, when the market is rising, the voice in your heart should be "dangerous, please run now", instead of the people around you. The unusual impetuous and optimistic attitude; similarly, when the panic index is extremely high, the voice that sounds in your heart should be "can be full, can be full", rather than worrying about the market will continue to fall.
For example, these days, after Bitcoin fell below 10,000, many people have become more determined to fall to 8000, 7000, and completely forgot that a few days ago, everyone just optimistic about Bitcoin back to 14000.
In fact, as long as there is a place where there are ups and downs, such as the house, it has always been bought and not bought. When house prices continue to rise, everyone is just in need, and everyone has to pay for it. The down payment is not enough to borrow a credit card to borrow online loans. When the house price fell, what was just needed, the volume of the transaction fell sharply, and everyone was waiting for the house price to double again to buy.
Having said that, I don’t really understand why, from the point of view of the index, people are still more panic than 3,000 dollars. Maybe it’s because the zero-loss is now more than zero dollars. I can't understand it.
However, I feel that there is absolutely no need to panic at the current price. If I let me predict, I will drop it for a week or two at most, and fall to the beginning of September, and it will fall to around 8000 at most. Then, on September 9th, the Bakkt market began to be fired. On the 24th, the price was a high point, and then a wave of anger fell. In mid-October, a round of halving was started, and a wave of people was set up. This is the case this year.
If this prediction is accurate, help me to screenshot the next month and praise me. If it is not allowed, let us make a new round of prediction next month.
In short, steady, don't panic.