Recently, a supply chain person close to TSMC broke the news to a blockchain. Bitcoin has recently placed new orders, which is equivalent to 600,000 mining machines.
Beyond Bitcoin, the new forces of mines, cores and other mining machines have begun to rise. This time, the mining machine market will once again usher in a new change.
The 600,000 new mining machine will bring nearly $1.2 billion in profits to Bitland, which is expected to reach a value of $12 billion.
- Analysis: Why can Bitcoin submit a listing application secretly?
- Bitcoin has secretly submitted a listing application to the US SEC. The sponsor is Deutsche Bank.
- Wu Jihan's latest share: 2-4 million users worldwide, cryptocurrency will soon be widely adopted
- Bitcoin or going to the US to go public, is this the signal that the "bull market" drama kicked off?
- Uncovering the next big game of Wu Jihan
- Babbitt Depth | Secret Bits of the mainland powers plummet, 2 to 5 fold clearance S9 push 17 series
Melee, transformation, listing… Once again, the mining machine market will bring the future of mining machinery companies to where?
01 production exposure
The Taiwan media "Economic Daily" reported at the end of July that Bitcoin added a new batch of orders to TSMC.
The media said that TSMC has paid more attention to this, and even TSMC executives went to Japan to purchase key equipment for the order.
However, the specific number of orders did not flow out.
Recently, a supply chain person close to TSMC told a blockchain that the orders are 7nm and 16nm wafer orders, totaling about 50,000, and will be shipped in the second half of this year.
It is reported that in order to get the goods as soon as possible, Bitland prefers to "pay first" and pay in cash.
This figure means how many new mining machines will be produced in Bitland?
According to the number of wafers cut, if the 50,000 wafer orders are delivered smoothly, Bitcoin is expected to ship about 600,000 miners in the second half of this year.
A number of miners revealed that the futures price of the Bitland 7nm model mining machine in the market is 20,600 yuan, and the spot price is 30,000 yuan.
Chen Lei, a distributor of Huaqiang North Mining Machinery Co., said that if the price of Bitcoin remains above $10,000 for a long time, the official website futures price of the S17 series mining machine is expected to reach 25,000 yuan.
If bitcoin rises further, the price of mining machines will further increase.
To this day, bitcoin mining machines are still the main source of revenue for most mining machine manufacturers. The prospectus submitted by Bitland in 2018 shows that in the first six months of 2018, 94.3% of the company's revenue came from mining machines.
Based on this calculation, Bitcoin's revenue in the next six months is also expected to reach around RMB 12-15 billion. Bitcoin’s previously exposed prospectus shows that the company’s net profit margin has been fluctuating around 30%.
It is rumored that Bitcoin is secretly planning to go public in the US. According to the above indicators, Bitland's full-year net profit is expected to reach about 1.2 billion US dollars.
Bitcoin’s previously disclosed prospectus document shows that its B+ round of financing completed in mid-2018 is valued at $14.2 billion. From July 2017 to June 2018, Bitcoin's net profit was $1.36 billion. In this calculation, the PE value of the bit continent is about 10 times.
In technology companies, 10 times the PE value is still a more conservative figure. According to investors familiar with Bitcoin, according to this calculation, if Bitcoin is successful in listing in the US, its market value is expected to reach 12 billion US dollars.
In Chinese technology companies, this market value is comparable to that of iQiyi, or equivalent to two B stations.
02 capacity problem
Today, 600,000 7nm mining machines in Bitland are beginning to gradually enter the market.
The production of these mining machines will once again push the bitcoin network to the new peak.
On August 18th, the difficulty of bitcoin mining increased by 1.98% to 10.18T, entering the “10T new era”. The overall network computing power has reached an unprecedented 72.79EH / s.
"In the future, the difficulty of bitcoin mining will certainly further increase," said miner Chen Hanping. In the mining circle, this has become the consensus of all miners.
According to the calculation of each 50TH/s computing power, only 600,000 mining machines in the mainland can provide 30E computing power.
If calculated according to the 70% market share in the Bitcoin prospectus, after half a year, Bitcoin's total network computing power will continue to increase by 42.8EH/s to 111.6EH/s. The difficulty of the whole network will also increase to 16.16EH/s, which is 58.8% higher than the current. This means that the same daily output of a mining machine is only 62% of the current output after 6 months.
However, considering that the 600,000 mining machines in Bitland also include a certain proportion of 16nm mining machines, it is estimated that the computing power of Bitcoin will increase by about 50%.
Obviously, the miners are ready to be mentally prepared.
"The mining machines on the market have already been in short supply. The most popular ones are the large computing machines such as Ant S17 Pro and Shenma M20S." Chen Lei revealed, "Compared with the S9 series, the new mining machine is more powerful, more valuable, and life-saving. The cycle is also longer. Now, the futures mining machine has been delivered to the end of the year."
However, it is worth noting that in the eight months since the end of last year, Bitcoin's total network computing power has only increased by 36EH/s. Among them, there is still a lot of growth in computing power from the re-start of the old mining machine, rather than the influx of new mining machines.
"Even in the previous bear market, the 7nm mining machine is still tight supply." In Chen Lei's view, the reason why the 7nm mining machine was rare was because the mining machine manufacturer suffered a capacity crisis.
"In the first half of this year, orders for digital currency chip companies may generally shrink due to currency prices." TSMC supply chain sources said, "In addition, TSMC's own 7nm production line is also facing huge challenges."
According to public information, in the mobile phone industry, the three flagship chips – Apple A12, Huawei Kirin 980 and Qualcomm Xiaolong 855 – all use TSMC's 7nm process, and TSMC's capacity reserved for mining companies is not too much.
Chip production capacity has become a major problem that has plagued the development of the entire mining industry.
In the mining circle, Bitian and Jianan Zhizhi have chosen TSMC as a supplier. In the 7nm era, TSMC took the lead, and the two miners were the first to achieve mass production of the 7nm mining machine.
In addition, Samsung has also entered the digital currency mining market in the past two years. The rising star of the mining machine circle and the core move, have chosen Samsung as a supplier of new products.
Take Shenma's M20 series mining machine as an example. It uses Samsung's 8nm chip and controls the power consumption ratio to a relatively low level – 48W/T.
However, Samsung is facing an unprecedented crisis in terms of capacity.
In July this year, Japan and South Korea traded in a war, and Japan announced a material embargo on the Korean semiconductor industry. The important raw material photoresist in the production of semiconductor chips is on the embargo list.
It is reported that the Korean semiconductor industry's photoresist reserves have been less than two weeks.
Uncertainties such as the trade war between Japan and South Korea may become a major variable that restricts the expansion of capacity of mining companies such as Shenma. It is not realistic to temporarily switch suppliers.
"Taking the Shenma M20 series mining machine as an example, it uses the 8nm process, while TSMC does not have the 8nm production line." Zhang Wen, a chip practitioner, pointed out that "if Shenma turns to TSMC, it can only overthrow the chip design. Both sides will continue to work together."
According to sources close to the TSMC supply chain, Shenma has expressed its willingness to transfer to TSMC, but it was rejected.
Looking at it now, betting on TSMC may be the luckiest choice for Bitland.
A year ago, the digital currency industry fell into a trough. Since then, China's mining machinery companies Jianan Zhizhi, Bitian mainland's IPO plan for Hong Kong has also been stranded.
Entering 2019, the currency market has picked up and the mining industry has risen again. However, today's mining machine market has also presented a new market structure.
Bitcoin still occupies a large share of the entire market, and the two up-and-coming stars are beginning to rise.
Earlier in an interview with the chip industry media core intelligence, Shen Ma mining machine founder Yang Zuoxing said that Shenma sold 500 million yuan in mining machines in 2017, net profit reached 70 million.
Two years later, the three-point community founder Yu Hong revealed in a circle of friends: "Dr. Yang received 700 million in cash a week, and the miners lined up to send money."
“The rise of Shenma and the core was originally due to the hot mining industry, and the ant S9 was in short supply.” The miner Wu Di said to a blockchain, “But after that, the ant S9 has accumulated a large inventory, which has caused the Bitland to fail to put into production. Mining machine."
Bitcoin’s previously issued prospectus shows that as of the end of June 2018, the value of the company’s stocks for sale was $560 million, equivalent to 20% of sales in the first half of 2018. The gods and cores that started late are not without these troubles.
"When the bitcoin price is close to 3,000 US dollars, the ant S9 as the previous generation of mining machine, has been on the verge of shutdown price. And Shenma's M10S, core T3, daily income are around 40 yuan, grabbed many shares of the bit mainland "Wu Di said.
Since then, the mining machine market has ushered in new changes.
"From my personal sales data, Bitcoin still occupies the majority of the entire mining industry." Chen Lei pointed out, "After it, Shenma, Core, Avalon, Wingbit together, probably accounted for four In the market, the proportion of Shenma is second only to ants, while Avalon, who was originally the second child, began to fall behind."
In the second-hand mining machine circle, the ant mining machine is still the first choice for miners.
In addition to the enormous mine reserves, another advantage of the ant miner is the ease of maintenance. “The core machine can only be returned to the factory. Shenma has cooperation with some mining companies and has multiple maintenance points throughout the country.” Chen Hanping said, “And the ants’ machine can be repaired by a third-party maintenance company. After a day of repair, the miners can make more money."
Nowadays, with the once-popular currency market, the competition in the mining machinery circle has intensified.
Compared with the bit mainland and Shenma, which are exposed in the media, the core movement in Wuhan is quite mysterious. Zhang Wen revealed that Core Dynamics is a veteran chip company with a history of more than ten years. Before entering the mining industry, it has already become famous in the interface IP and ASIC customization industry.
"The Jenke group of Bitumn, the Yang Zuoxing of Shenma, and the Bohai of the core are all veterans of the industry who have been in the chip industry for nearly 20 years." Zhang Wen said, "Now, the mining industry brings a lot of money." Income, let them choose to fall into it."
Obviously, these chip veterans will not stop there.
Today, BitInland's AI chip has grown to the third generation, and its latest BM1684 chip has achieved three times the performance improvement of the previous generation, and its solution has also been recognized by government departments in Fuzhou and Beijing Haidian.
In the face of outside interviews, Yang Zuoxing also said that in the future, he will switch to AI chips, GPUs and other fields.
"From the perspective of historical development, China's chip industry started late and long lags behind the US. But in the mining chip industry, China not only has the world's largest mining machine market, but also has such a top fab as TSMC. China mining machinery company Therefore, it is not surprising to lead the world," Zhang Wen said.
In his view, the huge cash flow brought by the mining machine chip has brought new opportunities for the Chinese chip industry, which lacked the ability to hematopoietic in the past. Driven by these funds, the Chinese chip industry may be able to go further.
The same is true for mining companies. Capital flows, capacity, and inventories all test their operational capabilities.
A new round of reshuffle may have just begun.
* Some of the respondents in the text are pseudonyms.
Text: Ratchet Pizza
Source: a blockchain