Economist Zhu Jiaming: 2019 is likely to be a major historical turning point

This article is the author's speech at the closed-door seminar of "New Era Spark Program (Finance)" held by Yangming Education Research Institute on August 18, 2019. This article was officially published after the revision of the recordings by the author.


Hello everyone! I came to the "Conscience of the Four Courtyards" today, and I want to talk about "How to Understand and Cognize the New Era." Because today's conference theme is "New Age Spark Program." Before I start the topic, let me talk about the three factors that have come to me after I came to the "Conscience of the Courtyard" today:

The first one is "Quadruple"

Because I grew up in Beijing Siheyuan, and I was in the courtyard of the Forbidden City, between Jingshan and Beihai Park. In my teenage years, I studied art in the Children's Palace, and the pattern of the Children's Palace is a combination of courtyards. At that time, the Beijing Children's Palace Library, which I studied, is located in Jingshan Park and is a combination of three-in-one courtyard.

Therefore, in my life, the memory and feelings of the courtyard are very deep. Siheyuan is a symbol of Chinese culture. Its design philosophy is to realize the combination of man and heaven in a limited space.

The second factor is today's day – August 18

Xu Yuanzhong is a native of Hunan and often tells me about Mao Zedong. The biggest thing that Mao Zedong did in his later years was to launch the Cultural Revolution. The big thing in the turning point of the Cultural Revolution was that he met the Red Guards on Tiananmen Square on August 18, 1966. At that time, I was a member of the square. Under the Jinshui Bridge, it was very clear to see Mao Zedong. The biggest impression was that he waved his hat under the joy of the crowd and showed calm to the young people. Once, my primary school participated in the National Day, and the Young Pioneers put the pigeons in peace. In any case, Mao Zedong’s influence on our generation is likely to accompany him for the rest of his life.

The third factor is Wang Yangming.

This yard is named after Wang Yangming's "to the conscience", trying to rediscover the practical significance of Wang Yangming's psychology, and I myself have had a deeper understanding of Wang Yangming's psychology because of this or that opportunity. It was a coincidence that I taught at the National Taiwan University five or six years ago, during which I created the "Yangmingshan Future School " .

This Yangmingshan Future Learning Society borrows the geographical symbol and historical symbol of Yangmingshan in Taipei. What is more important is to give Wang Yangming a new historical significance and to combine it with the future. This actually involves how to look at Chinese studies and realize the combination of Chinese studies and modernization.

No religious reforms like Martin Luther have been found in Chinese history. Because religion is not a feature of Chinese culture, several reforms related to Chinese studies have not been successful. This lesson is worth summarizing. In any case, for Chinese studies, including Wang Yangming's psychology, we must avoid the understanding of formalism, pragmatism and utilitarianism.

Below I want to start getting into the theme. I am a "post-50" and have historical responsibility for inheriting the past, so I mainly share four questions with you today:

First, what is the new era?

Our generation has been inspired, moved, and inspired by the so-called "new era" many times in life. When the Great Leap Forward was introduced in 1958, we were told to enter the "new era". We must surpass the British to catch up with the United States; to the Cultural Revolution, to repair and repair, and to create new human beings, it seems to be a "new era." In 1978, reform and opening up were opened, and people were in the midst of a "new era." In recent years, the "new era" is undoubtedly the most frequently used keyword.

From my point of view, understanding the new era requires the limitations of human history, global vision and even beyond the limits of anthropocentrism. For example, about a dozen days ago, a planet was very close to the Earth. Astronomers said that the asteroid with the number "2019OK" might have a "Tungus Big Bang" level if it collided with the Earth. Fortunately, it ended up with The earth passed by. After the incident, research in the planetary science community and some aerospace fields began to call for the strengthening of research in the field of planetary defense worldwide.

Coincidentally, I talked to a good young man from the Beijing Observatory in Xilingele League in Inner Mongolia last week. I asked him about the possibility of this planet colliding with the Earth. I asked him if there is a way for humans to avoid this planet, and he said that there is no way, but now astronomers can have the ability to tell everyone at the last minute the time and place of the collision, and to the earth. The damage and the extent of harm to humans.

To this end, what I want to extend is the natural force behind humanity that transcends human ability and has a major impact on humanity. Last year, I commemorated the 200th anniversary of the publication of Mrs. Shelley's "Frankenstein (Frankenstein)" on many occasions. This is the first science fiction novel in human history. The question is how is this book written?

I tell you that it was because in 1815, before the summer of 1816, a dormant volcano called "Tambora" broke out in Indonesia, and a lot of smoke filled the sky, covering Europe, and it was difficult for the sun to shine into the earth. The sharp drop in temperature made it impossible for the Shelleys and Byron to escape from the Lake Geneva. In this cold summer, they can only sit in front of a burning fireplace, and each person conceives a novel. The story of Mrs. Shelley and the story told is this famous "Frankenstein".

This is a long chain, the Indonesian volcanic eruption south of the equator in the Eastern Hemisphere, which eventually led to the immortal work of a young woman from the UK who happened to be on vacation at Lake Geneva. Later, Byron’s daughter became the first person in the history of computer language, and that was the latter.

What I want to say is that the beginning and end of any new era in the history of human civilization is bound to be associated with major irreversible changes in the history of mankind. For example, the rise and decline of the Roman Empire, the emergence and spread of Christianity , the Renaissance , the Industrial Revolution , the outbreak and the end of the Second World War. In the past two or three decades, the IT and Internet revolution has indeed had the historical status of Columbus's discovery of the New World, Magellan's global travel and industrial revolution.

Therefore, I believe that the new era refers to such a historical period: the original ideological model, industrial system, economic system, and ethical standards have undergone fundamental, systematic, and irreversible changes. This process from deconstruction to construction is New Era.

In the modern and contemporary history of China, Mao Zedong has created a new era. Since the end of 1980 and before 1990, because of the collapse of the Berlin Wall and the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the world economy and order have been reconstructed, so the American historian Francis Fukuyama wrote a very influential book, The End of History, It is believed that since then, the world will be dominated by liberalism and free markets. But the history of the past 30 years proves that history has not ended. Humanity continues to face the possibility of entering a new era.

Because human beings will consciously and unconsciously create important factors that change the times. In short, the use of the concept of "new age" requires a scientific attitude, a historical standard, and avoid vulgarization. My first hope for the "New Age Spark Program" is to hope that you will seriously expand the concepts presented so that you can get more supporters and supporters.

Second, the history of the 1920s is a new era of enlightenment

The end of the First World War in 1919, this war completely ended the social structure, economic structure and geopolitics of the 18th century industrial revolution, the full development of the free market system in the 19th century; China was the first in the Beiyang ruling that year. In the eight years, the May Fourth Movement took place. Then, humans entered the 1920s. It can be said that the history of the 20th century and even the evolution of the early 21st century can be traced back to the 1920s.

One of the most representative indicators is that the characters affecting the world's 20th century political and social structure, philosophy, science and technology, economic revolution, culture and art, and lifestyle have all entered the historical arena. They are basically the 80s, 90s, and 00s of that era. For example, Lenin, Roosevelt, Churchill, Mao Zedong and even Hitler in the political field; Einstein in the scientific world; Keynes in the economics, etc., are all representative figures of that era.

In the history of human civilization, the time and geographical distribution of talents are uneven. All events that change the historical direction are not evenly distributed in time and geospatial history. The history of human civilization has repeatedly proved that every other historical period, there will be a concentration of talents in a certain period of time, and at the same time, there will be regional centers that affect the history of human history.

The new era of the Spark Program proposed by you today is worth knowing about the diversified experiments in rural China from the 1910s to the 1920s. At that time, there were several models for realizing rural modernization, improving rural education, transforming farmers, and promoting agricultural modernization. Which can be summarized as:

(1) Reconstructing the rural model with the spirit of Confucianism represented by Liang Shu (1893-1988), located in Zou County, Shandong Province.

(2) The Western civilian education model represented by Yan Yangchu (1890-1990), located in Ding County, Hebei Province.

(3) The Japanese rural transformation model represented by Fu Baicui (1896-1993). Fu Baicui, an extreme legend of the people, was once an early military general of the Chinese Communist Party. Later he left the Communist Party and did not work with the Kuomintang. The "National Non-Party Party" carried out long-term rural reforms in Fujian and maintained it until the early days of the founding of the country until the land reform.

(4) The communist model represented by the Ruijin model, which is the prototype of the later land reform. In addition, there is a Christian model, represented by the British missionary Borgley (1864-1915), helping the Miao people to create words in Shimenkan, Guizhou, and educating them to eventually build Shimenkan into southwestern China. The largest cultural education highland in the field.

It can be said that in the 1920s, the entire spectrum of all the transformational ideas and experiments in rural China has been formed. Of course, the ultimate victory in history is the Soviet model. It is further extended by the people's commune system from the late 1950s to the 1970s.

Looking back at the above history, I hope to convey the message that these people who contribute to China's rural areas and peasants and to modernization are actually representatives of "integration of knowledge and action," and are gentlemen and sages. They have a common feature, that is, the spirit of the world, the courage of self-sacrifice.

From the perspective of the world, 1920 did not eradicate the human key issues that caused the cause of the First World War. Economically led to the economic depression of 1929-1939; politically led to the rise of German nationalism, Hitler's rise to power, the Japanese youth military coup in the Asia-Pacific region, and militarism dominated Japanese politics. It is this evolution that made the Second World War inevitable.

In any case, the 1920s was the most crucial decade. In a few months, humanity will enter the 1920s of the 21st century. Nowadays, it is difficult for people to even say that they have no ability to predict major events in the 2020s, but they are very likely to see some big trends in economy, politics, science and technology in 2020. To this end, we need to put 2020 into a larger historical perspective and observe.

Third, 2019 is likely to be a major historical turning point.

2019 is the 500th anniversary of Magellan's global voyage; it is the 50th anniversary of Apollo's moon landing; it is the 50th anniversary of the Internet access of four American universities. The day of Apollo's moon landing was July 1969, when I was working in the farm of the Political Department of the Tibet Military Region. We heard this news on the short-wave radio that day, and my companions and I were shocked. In the Tibetan Plateau of that era, looking up at the starry sky, the entire Galaxy was in front of us. Compared with our farming, Apollo went to the moon. The contrast between the big and the exciting is still unforgettable.

The cover story of the Economist magazine published on July 20 this year is "Space for the next 50 years." This is a big topic! It is also a topic that cannot be ignored anyway in the new era. But it is very regrettable that few of the young people around me have a persistent pursuit and imagination of such problems.

So in my opinion, the biggest thing in 2019 is that Maskex launched SpaceX to launch a Starlink program of up to 12,000 satellites. In addition, it is more noteworthy that Facebook's Zuckerberg launched Libra's white paper on June 18. So a Musk, a Zuckerberg; a heaven, a ground; are groundbreaking historical events.

I have to say that in the open space of the universe, innovation in the financial system, we have not become a leader and leader, and even become a absentee in many fields. Why is it difficult for us to have people like Musk? Why is Libra's idea not proposed by us? Looking back at the Chinese people's significant contributions to human science and technology, if they are counted according to the head of the people, what is recorded and affirmed by history is very limited. In mathematics is Zu Chongzhi, and astronomer Guo Shoujing.

I would also like to mention the conversation with the young astronomers of the Beijing Observatory a few days ago. I asked the ranking of Chinese astronomy in the world now? He replied that it was probably the fourth and fifth. In short, I believe that while we affirm the Chinese civilization and the Chinese intellectual heritage, we should continue to reflect on how to make progress , innovation and creation.

Fourth, what are the characteristics of the new era?

If we say that we are likely to be the starting point of a new era in 2020, what are the characteristics of this era?

(1) Science and technology entered a historical stage of comprehensive and rapid development, leading to the leadership of science and technology and the economic development.

(2) Human beings are moving towards an era of material and spiritual production. Conceptual economy has become a new solution to human's most basic material needs. It is almost no longer a big problem. Large-scale and long-term hunger will be effectively controlled.

(3) The human economic organization has changed. Recently, a book in the United States, "One Person, One Enterprise," is very popular. Enterprises should no longer pursue scale, but pursue social value. Small is beautiful. As a result, the employment model has undergone fundamental changes, and young people will shift to a variety of work models with a single work model.

(4) The rule of law system in the world will enter the historical period of major revision, and the principles of law and various legal systems will be realized in an overwhelming manner. Code is Law – It will become an unstoppable trend, and the reason is simple. History has never been like today. The legal system lags behind the changes and developments of the real system.

It can be concluded that nowadays, people often say that post-industrial society , information society , and intelligent society are no longer "wolves are coming", but they are really coming. It is comprehensive and unprecedented speed to show in front of people.

While I talked about the above four main features, I also want to talk about my three worries in the 2020s.

(1) Unstoppable population, bursting unbalanced population growth

Who said that the current world population is about 7.8 billion, I think it is likely to have exceeded 8 billion, and the time from 8 billion to 10 billion must be faster than the world population experts predict. I think all of you here will experience the world population. At the time of reaching 10 billion, I always thought that the earth could not bear 10 billion people.

In the 1980s, we organized the "Towards the Future" series. The two books I directly participated in were "The Limits of Growth" and "The Growth without Limits". Now people understand that there is a great bias in the aging society. For example, Japan is aging. Society, this means the present, but the time scale has been extended for two or three decades, then the current old body in Japan has basically disappeared. That is to say, Japan is likely to jump from having 100 million old-aged society to a reasonable population structure overnight. Society.

On the contrary, in order to pursue the demographic dividend, it has to stimulate the population fertility rate to increase the population base. India seems to be enjoying the demographic dividend. The consequence is that if its population reaches 1.5-1.8 billion, or even more, how can India's resources support such a population? I have been to Palestine. Passing through the thick, rigorously inspected cement wall, it’s in front of me that there’s nothing to do with the street, the black man who is drinking coffee and the young man in the middle ages. This is the case in many streets in Cairo. it can be discovered.

(2) Global warming

Excessive carbon dioxide emissions, human climate warming is a real problem. I have been to the Arctic and Alaska, and I have seen the melting and melting of the glaciers and the extreme shrinkage of the glacier area. The shrinking and disappearing of glaciers now occur in the Antarctic, the Pamirs and the Tibetan Plateau. If the glaciers melt at the current rate, not only will the polar bears disappear and the penguins starve to death, but they will also trigger global disasters including rising sea levels.

(3) backward medical system

Human life is facing a full range of damage. Compared with natural health people, the proportion of sub-health and patients is rising. Today in this world, you can imagine not only men and women, but also the "third sex", and can understand the world as a healthy person and a patient. The hospital is the assembly place for patients. Nowadays, regardless of the cost of medical development, the cost of medical development is getting higher and higher. On the one hand, on the one hand, the population is increasing. On the one hand, the human medical system is lagging behind. The absolute number of patients and the rejuvenation of patients will inevitably become more serious problems than aging.

Finally, I would like to add some thoughts on Yangming philosophy and Yangming psychology. First of all, it is indeed necessary to have a concept and height of a "human community." There are more Chinese people, but it is 1.4 billion people out of 7.8 billion. The dependence between human beings has never been as close and inseparable as it is now.

Second, you need to have a "fraternity" heart. Regarding Yangming philosophy, I dare not say that I have done in-depth research, but today I heard that one thing that is ignored is fraternity. Wang Yangming has a heart of fraternity. Pok Oi is inseparable from "the world is the public". This "public" word is not just the Chinese, but the whole human being.

Third, it needs to be inclusive, diversified, and tolerate different views. Tolerant to everyone, tolerant of different ideas and choices of others. For Wang Yangming's psychology, there is no explanation, a description. I strongly disapprove of exclusivity. Without diversification, there is no development.

Finally, the most important thing is that you can't be a hero. Do not win or lose to judge a person, is it right to choose a direction, to know that the success of many people is based on the failure of too many people, one person to achieve others success with his own failure lessons, Isn't it more great? Many people who have made creative contributions to history have difficulty in getting people's understanding and support during their lifetime. They are all lonely , unruly, and even silently dead. The so-called "sacred sages are lonely."

Before Wang Yangming lived, the number of people affected was limited; the last person Confucius followed him was very few, but he said that he thought through it, he did not ask for this; Mencius did not get real realization of his true idea in his life. opportunity. Because of this, they have become sages. The spirit of sage is to be able to withstand loneliness, to be able to withstand being neglected by history, and to be able to withstand misunderstandings. This is the so-called sacrifice spirit. All the great eras of mankind are not laid by the successors, they are laid by the losers, and they are laid by the sacrifices and dedication of countless people.

To sum up: For the attitudes of historical sages, Chinese studies, and cultural heritage, we must avoid pragmatism, utilitarianism, and formalism. We must also avoid the success of the world as the starting point and the end point, but the heart of fraternity and the heart of the world. Start and end points.

thank you all.