"Bitcoin ten years" smashed the entire currency circle, it is time to re-recognize BTC!

Looking back 10 years ago, Bitcoin is still untouched, and now its fans have spread all over the world.

This weekend, the " Bitcoin 10 Years Price Trend " dynamic page smashed the entire currency circle, especially thanks to the elaborate production of qkl123.com, and I accidentally brushed it a dozen times. After reading it, I was very emotional, so I was so worried. Reorganized the individual's understanding of Bitcoin.


(screenshot from qkl123.com)

Note: The following content only represents some of the author's personal thinking, do not blindly choose to believe, suggest that you think for yourself, if you have different opinions, or think that the author's logic is wrong, welcome to ask.

Writing this article, I hope readers can find answers to these questions:

  1. What is the ultimate positioning of Bitcoin? What is the current stage?
  2. Will Bitcoin be banned by the government?
  3. Can Bitcoin really keep going up?
  4. What is the relationship between Bitcoin and the altcoin, and will there be spring in the altcoin?
  5. What is the risk of Bitcoin?

First, the ultimate positioning of Bitcoin is the value storage of the rich. At this stage, it is more like a very periodic life.

There are many different kinds of sayings about bitcoin, such as the "peer-to-peer electronic cash system" that Nakamoto first mentioned in the white paper, and the "digital gold" that many people currently recognize, or some people compare it to Living organisms (such as candied fruit, trees, fungi).


When I first came into contact with Bitcoin, I preferred Nakamoto's "peer-to-peer electronic cash system" statement, so when Gavin Andresen proposed to expand the Bitcoin block in October 2014, I was in favor of both hands (completely It was due to the blind trust of the chief developer of Bitcoin at the time).

So in the next few years of expansion, I tend to support the expansion of the large block, and during this period, as the Nakamoto Shoji powder, I have repeatedly responded to the original Bitcoin vision proposed by Cong Ge (payment System) call, later in the expansion of the dispute, the bitcoin ushered in after the outbreak, I suddenly realized that bitcoin is not suitable as a payment system, payment is only a supplementary function, its total limit of 21 million BTC The original vision of Bitcoin is no longer realistic, and the value instability is only second. The nature of its ultimate deflation will make users tend to hoard rather than pay. When the same amount of bitcoin could be exchanged for dozens or even hundreds of times in a few years, the concept of "digital gold" began to invade my mind.

However, the good times did not last long. After Bitcoin skyrocketed to 20,000 US dollars at the end of 2017, it began to fall all the way. At the end of 18, it fell to a minimum of 3,200 US dollars. This poor performance made people start to doubt the "digital gold", even if it is currently Bitcoin has risen to $10,000, and its positive correlation with gold is still low. The title of "digital gold" does not seem to match.


(Figure: Bitcoin and gold correlation)

After that, the saying that bitcoin is a living body has caught my eye, and the metaphor of "fungi" is even more amazing! (Related article: Is Bitcoin the most like gold, but a fungus? )

As the world's most successful decentralized network, fungi have unique adaptability and they can survive in the event of mass extinction.

Even better, the breeding cycle of fungi is very similar to the growth cycle of Bitcoin:

"Fungals exist mainly in the form of "mycelium", which you can think of as the underground roots that connect trees and plants. Most humans don't even know the presence of mycelium, because most of the time they remain quiet underground.

However, when the fungus feels that the environment (temperature, humidity, etc.) is beneficial, it will send the mushrooms to the ground. The mushrooms will grow up almost twice a day until they mature, and when the mushrooms are fully mature, they will release hundreds of them. Thousands of spores (mushroom "seeds"), then quickly break down back to the ground…" Like mushroom spores, most new Bitcoin users will exit the ecosystem, however, a small portion will form new colonies on Bitcoin land, and these bear market survivors will become new “hodlers”.

Then, I realized that the participants in the Bitcoin ecosystem can be roughly divided into two categories: one is to pursue more bitcoin, and the other is to pursue more French currency .

The former is the "mycelium" group, and the latter is the "mushroom" group.

The growth of Bitcoin has shown a very strong cyclicality at the moment, and it is this phenomenon that masks the "digital gold" attribute. Most people only see the "mushroom" on the ground, but ignore the truly valuable storage. The "mycelium" of the demand.

And as the cycle evolves, more and more "mushrooms" will become "mycelium" and generate value storage requirements for bitcoin.

Then, we will find that the bitcoin "digital gold" title will be more and more consistent, and the fact that Bitcoin has better attributes than gold makes it possible to replace gold, even surpassing gold, and become the first choice for value storage in people's eyes. After that, we can define Bitcoin as the value store of the rich. The two meanings here are: (1) the wealthy people have valuable storage requirements, and (2) store it to become rich;

This positioning also means that bitcoin changes must be very difficult, and the upgrades that can be obtained by the community are generally used to enhance their value storage characteristics (such as interchangeability, decentralization), or It is not an upgrade to these characteristics. As for the proposal to change the total amount and change the PoS, it is regarded as a taboo topic. Bitcoin only needs to be a highly decentralized and very secure value store.

But at the same time, this also means that the transaction cost of the Bitcoin main chain will be very high, so that the average person can't afford Bitcoin, and the existence of Lightning Network and Liquid Sidechain is to make up for this problem, low and high frequency. The transaction is completed through a relatively centralized payment channel. Some people may say that there is no real incentive for the lightning network. No one is going to use it. I was confused at first. Later, I realized that the existence of lightning network is not to make bitcoin realize peer-to-peer payment. Vision, but to better serve the value storage properties of Bitcoin.

Second, the current government tends to suppress bitcoin, but will eventually welcome bitcoin

When talking about whether the government will ban the topic of Bitcoin, we need to emphasize again that bitcoin is not positioned as a “peer-to-peer electronic cash system” but as a value store, that is, it ends up with legal and legal digital currencies. It does not form a competitive relationship, but exists as a kind of property, an investment commodity, and is a symbiotic relationship.

This is consistent with the positioning of Bitcoin in major countries such as China and the United States. For example, in China, Bitcoin is defined as a commodity, and people have the right to participate freely.

But because of concerns about the "e-cash" vision, many governments, including China, have imposed restrictions on them, such as not allowing banks to participate, or double taxation, or even a completely banned attitude. But these countries eventually found that the ban did not work.

For example, Japan defines it as “legal payment method”, but this definition does not have much meaning except to recognize the legal status of Bitcoin in the country, because Bitcoin itself is not suitable as a payment method, but suitable The payment method is the legal currency of moderate inflation, Alipay, WeChat, or a stable currency that anchors the legal currency.

Recently, I saw a paper by New York University professor David Yermack and others, " How does private digital currency affect government policy ? After that, I began to agree that the government would eventually welcome Bitcoin instead of ban it because Bitcoin exists as a commodity that is beneficial to both citizens and the government.

Third, "always rise", "eternal bull market" is just a single word, "spiral rise" is more realistic

As for whether Bitcoin has been rising all the time, at first glance it seems to be quite brain-dead. In this world, apart from time and the universe, what are the things that have been rising?

What's more, Bitcoin's periodicity of "half-half" as the central point of time is very obvious. After reaching the cycle of speculative climax, Bitcoin generally experiences a decline of about 80%. Obviously, there is not much saying that "always rising". Persuasive.


However, the bitcoin-like "fungi" attribute also makes it appear in a "spiral rise" pattern. The market's demand for its value storage and speculative demand is driving the operation of Bitcoin, and every time the speculative tide will take it. Come to new believers, so that each new bottom is higher than the last time.

So, will Bitcoin have a ceiling? Of course, gold is its first ceiling, calculated at the current gold market value of 8.4 trillion US dollars, then the first floor of the bitcoin price is equivalent to 470,000 US dollars.

But considering that Bitcoin has a better value storage attribute than gold, it may also surpass gold (but obviously the difficulty will be very large), personally think that this will take at least 4-5 cycles (16-20 years) Only hope is completed.

At that stage, people who recognize Bitcoin as a value store will account for the majority, which means that the volatility of Bitcoin will be greatly reduced (similar to the current state of gold).

The bottleneck period also means that it is difficult for Bitcoin to appreciate. It can only rely on the constant inflation of the French currency and slowly appreciate. Personally, it is possible that Bitcoin will reach $1 million in our lifetime, which takes into account that the US dollar is close to each year. 2% inflation rate.

Fourth, most of the current altcoins are speculative drives, while the altcoin is the fertile ground for bitcoin.

Faced with the reality that the vast majority of people involved in altcoin will have one of two purposes: (1) earn more bitcoin, and (2) earn more legal currency.

Newcomers are more inclined to the latter when they are in contact with Bitcoin, so when they see high-priced bitcoin, newcomers instinctively choose to enter the altcoin market (at this stage, they will not realize that Bitcoin and Ark have What is different, anyway, the purpose is to earn legal money).

At the beginning of the cycle, Bitcoin completed the bottoming with the insistence of Hodler, which slowly rose due to the demand for value storage and speculative demand, and eventually led to speculation. A large number of newcomers and funds would enter the market, and the altcoin became Cultivate the hot land of speculation.


(The speculation is a mushroom, and the altcoin market is a fertile land)

When the speculative tide reached its peak, the purpose was to make the first bite of the bitcoin and the "smart money" to be evacuated first, and then the bubble burst, most of the altcoins fell 99% from the peak, the trading volume continued to shrink, and no believers were supporting the currency price. The exchange has removed these altogether altcoins, and eventually they will really return to zero, and then people will realize the difference between the altcoin and the bitcoin, and may become one of the believers of Bitcoin.

This is related to the early stage of the entire industry. Except for Bitcoin, the vast majority of public chains are only experimental, some are still very bad in performance and experience, others are dispensable, and there is no real need, which makes There are very few believers.

And those code bases that have not been updated for a long time, only focus on speculative projects, and ultimately will not be able to return to zero.

This may be the tragic fate that most blockchain projects can't avoid, but that doesn't mean the Alt season won't come.

As mentioned above, the altcoin market has a lot to do with Bitcoin, and it has a strong periodicity like Bitcoin.


Willy Woo:

“After all the shitcoin massacres, the altcoin market may enter a support area. The top line is the ratio of the market value of the altcoin to the market value of the bitcoin (another expression of the dominance index), and the bottom line is the altcoin market. The ratio of trading volume to Bitcoin trading volume.

All altcoins are valued by the funds invested by people. This is speculation, bitcoin has the same situation, but the altcoin has no utility valuation. Perhaps Ethereum will have a few dollars of smart contract utility valuation, and the rest is that people put money into it.

This kind of strong periodicity means that the auspicious currency speculation will still arrive, but the story will be different compared to the previous cycle, and the participants' faces will also change dramatically.

Fifth, not mastering the private key is the biggest risk, the handcuffs can not hold the second

The above content seems to be blowing Bitcoin. Is there no risk in Bitcoin? (If you stop here, you can think that I am writing brainwashing =. =)

Of course not. In fact, Bitcoin has a lot of risks, and the biggest risk is that you don't have a good private key, and that means your bitcoin will go directly to zero!


There are many situations in which you don't have a good private key:

  1. There is no backup private key (or mnemonic) at all, or misreported;
  2. There is no security awareness, resulting in the disclosure of private keys (such as direct copy save, screenshot save);
  3. The wallet used is not random, resulting in easy brute force cracking;
  4. Fully trusting third-party exchanges means that investors need to take on some additional risks, and there may be incidents of stolen or even running on the exchange;

Another big risk is that the handcuffs have not been taken.

For example, participating in leverage, participating in futures trading, and choosing to cash in during the bear market downturn, or swapping bitcoin into a cottage at the end of the bull market, all have losses or even zero risk.

Others, such as quantum computing or regulation, have lower risks.

Looking forward to Bitcoin for the next decade.