QKL123 market analysis | Bitcoin suddenly pulled up, the altcoin weak linkage (0826)

Abstract: Bitcoin has been suppressed in the early morning, but the weak side of the altcoin is linked. The offensive in the market can be slightly insufficient, and the uncertainty is short-lived. The short-term market continues to fluctuate and adjust, and the possibility of BTC stabilizing upwards has increased.

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According to QKL123 statistics, at 13 o'clock on August 26, 2019, the total market value of the global Token market was 19,319.20 billion yuan, the total market value of 24-hour increased or decreased by +1.64%, the total turnover was 411.799 billion yuan, and the total turnover changed by +13.31%. Market activity has increased significantly. The Babbitt Composite Index reported 13976.79 points, a 24-hour up and down to +1.66%; the Alternative sentiment index was 41, which was higher than yesterday (33), and the market sentiment was fear.

Among the top ten encrypted assets in the market value (excluding USDT), BCH had the largest increase in 24 hours (+2.86%), and EOS had the largest decline in 24 hours (-0.58%). BTC rose by 2.4% in 24 hours, market share (67.98%) increased slightly compared with yesterday, ETH rose by +0.73% in 24 hours, market share (7.57%) was slightly lower than yesterday, and market risk aversion was still relatively high. ChaiNext USDT's off-market discount premium index was at 99.09 points, with a 24-hour rise to -0.73%, USDT for 24 hours, up to -0.04%, and today's net outflow of RMB 48,854,400, a decrease from yesterday.

Today Bitcoin's global Google search trend relative value (peak 93) is significantly higher than yesterday (peak 78), close to the seven-day average. The top five countries are Nigeria (100), South Africa (56), Brazil (54), Austria (50) and Ghana (44). The daily average of Bitcoin's Baidu search index was 25,939 in the past 7 days, a decrease of -7% from the previous month, a record low in three months.

Analyst's point of view: The market continues to fluctuate, fear is not scattered, the offensive on Bitcoin can be slightly insufficient, the weak side of the altcoin is linked, and the uncertainty is short. In the short-term, the downside of Bitcoin is relatively limited, and the possibility of upward convergence of power storage is still large.

First, the spot BTC market

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Yesterday, the BTC went up to $10,300 and continued to go down. Today it was quickly pulled down to $10,600 after a low of $9,800. In the short-term, the current BTC is moving away from the downward extension of the daily convergence triangle, and the possibility of continuing upward convergence has increased.

Fund face

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As of 14:00, BTC's net capital inflow today was 110,658,200 yuan, a decrease from yesterday. Among them, the net inflow of super large single (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) is 146,189,200 yuan, the net inflow of large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) is 238,540,800 yuan, and the net is between 10,000 yuan and 30,000 yuan. The inflow of 64,890,200 yuan, the small inflow (less than 50,000 yuan) net inflow of 73.34 million yuan. The market is mostly built in the middle of the market.

2. Fundamentals

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At present, the BTC's total network computing power is 75.02EH/s, which is slightly lower than yesterday (80.03EH/s), approaching the historical high point, and the long-term upward trend has not changed. Yesterday, the number of coins destroyed was 4,760,800 (historically smaller) than the previous day (289.57 million), and the long-term uptrend was not destroyed. Yesterday, the number of active addresses in the chain was 496,500, a decrease from the previous day (672,200), close to the low of three months.

Second, the spot ETH market

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Short-term ETH/BTC trading on the pin 0.018 BTC, ETH weak linkage BTC, the continuation of the range of small fluctuations, the willingness to continue the upside is not strong.

Fund face

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As of 14:00, ETH's net inflow of funds today was 64,216,900 yuan, a slight decrease from yesterday. Among them, the oversized single (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net flow in addition to 11.498 million yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net inflow of 10,251,400 yuan, in the single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) The net inflow was 92,945,600 yuan, and the net inflow of small orders (below 50,000 yuan) was 45,820,700 yuan. The market is mostly built with small orders.

2. Fundamentals

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Observing DAPPRADAR statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour ETH DApp has decreased. Among them, the game My Crypto Heroes has 24 hours of active users 2.8k, 24 hours change +5.33%; financial application MakerDAO's 24-hour active users 1.3k, 24-hour change -33.51%.

Third, the spot LTC market

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At 05:00 today, the LTC touched the bottom of 70 US dollars and then rose. It is currently fluctuating around 73 US dollars. The LTC/BTC transaction fell back after hitting a high of 0.0074 BTC yesterday, and is currently oscillating around 0.0071 BTC, weakly linking BTC.

Fund face

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As of 14:00, the net inflow of LTC funds today was 221,477,100 yuan, an increase from yesterday. Among them, the net inflow of oversized single (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) is 95.056 million yuan, the net inflow of large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) is 4,358.22 yuan, and the net inflow of medium single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) 2041.75 million yuan, a small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net inflow of 62.42 million yuan. The market is dominated by oversized single-sale warehouses.

2. Fundamentals

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At present, LTC's total network computing power is 314.06TH/s, which is lower than yesterday (361.21TH/s), which is close to the lowest point in three months. After the block reward is halved, the computing power will tend to decrease. Part of the miner's withdrawal or equipment elimination is related and it will take some time to recover. If there is a continuous new low in the future, you need to pay attention to risk prevention. Yesterday, the number of LTC coins destroyed (1400.46 million, historically small), compared with the previous day (819.656 million), the long-term trend has not been destroyed. Yesterday, the number of active addresses on the chain was 51,600, a slight decrease from the previous day (60,100), close to the low of three months.

Fourth, the spot EOS market

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At 21 o'clock yesterday, EOS quickly went down from 3.7 US dollars. It has risen rapidly after the low of 3.5 US dollars at 04:00, and shortly draws the V shape. At the same time, the EOS/BTC transaction is weak, and the momentum of the multi-military attack is currently insufficient.

Fund face

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As of 14:00, EOS's net capital inflow today was 10.9566 million yuan, which was reversed yesterday. Among them, the large inflow (more than or equal to 1 million yuan) net inflow of 18.71 million yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net outflow of 59.374 million yuan, in the middle (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net The outflow was 12.9121 million yuan, and the net inflow of small orders (below 50,000 yuan) was 64.353 million yuan. There are big differences in the market, and most of them are built in small orders.

2. Fundamentals

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According to DAPPRADAR statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour EOS DApp has increased. Among them, the game's PROSPECTORS 24-hour user number is 3.2k, which is +5.37% compared with yesterday; the number of 24-hour active users who use BLUEBET is 2.6k, which is -7.51% change from yesterday.

V. Analyst strategy

1. Long line (1-3 years)

The long-term trend of BTC is improving. Currently, it is in the stage of partial adjustment. The market of mad cows may come in the next one to two years, and it can be added on a dip. The smart contract platform leader ETH, the altcoin leader LTC, the DPoS leader EOS BTC transaction pair is at a low level in the year, and the opportunity to reverse is available.

2. Midline (1-3 months)

Short-term BTCs are more likely to continue to adjust their reserves, holding some positions to wait and see.

3. Short-term (1-3 days)

Short-term continuation of range volatility, can be low-selling and low-selling in small positions, breaking the stop loss.

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Appendix – Index Interpretation

Babbitt Composite Index The Babbitt Composite Index (8BTCCI) consists of the largest and most representative Tokens in the global market for existing blockchains to reflect the price performance of the entire blockchain Token market.

Alternative Emotional Index The Fear & Greed Index reflects changes in the market's mood, with 0 meaning “extreme fear” and 100 meaning “extreme greed”. The indicators include: volatility (25%), trading volume (25%), social media (15%), online questionnaire (15%), market share (10%), trend (10%).

USDT Off- Site Depreciation Index ChaiNext USDT Off-Site Depreciation Index (USDT OTC INDEX) is obtained by dividing the USDT/CNY OTC price by the offshore RMB exchange rate and multiplying by 100. An index of 100 indicates USDT parity, an index greater than 100 indicates a USDT premium, and a value less than 100 indicates a USDT discount.

Net inflow of funds (out) This indicator reflects the inflow and outflow of funds in the secondary market. By calculating the difference between the inflow of funds and the outflow of funds on the global exchange (not including false transactions), positive values ​​indicate net inflows of funds, while negative values ​​indicate net outflows of funds. Among them, the turnover is calculated as the inflow of funds when the rise, and the turnover is calculated as the outflow when the decline occurs.

Bitcoin Coindays Destroyed refers to the product of the number of Bitcoins traded on the chain and the number of days held by Bitcoin. The larger the value, the greater the risk of selling pressure on the secondary market. BTC currency day destruction number classification: greater than or equal to 100 million is the maximum value; 50 to 100 million is the larger value; 10 to 50 million is the median; less than or equal to 10 million is the smaller value. LTC currency day destruction number classification: greater than or equal to 500 million is the maximum value; 100 million to 500 million is the larger value; 50 to 100 million is the median; less than or equal to 50 million is the smaller value.

Note: Encrypted assets are high-risk assets. This document is for decision-making purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.