Written in the front: In 2017-2018, the blockchain showed unprecedented prosperity, hundreds of billions of dollars were put into the market, and thousands of projects were established. Nowadays, the tide has faded and the industry has been in a downturn: the currency price in the secondary market has continued to fall, and the technology has been difficult. People are stuck in a certain degree of confusion: Is there any future in the blockchain? How to survive the breakout? Where is the future going? To this end, Babbitt initiated a special plan "Industry Reflection", reflecting on the problems existing in the current industry, and actively exploring the direction of the healthy development of the industry. This series will be through the objective data of the star project's secondary market currency price performance, project profit model, public chain economic incentive model, future trend of the blockchain industry, and dialogue with project participants, investors and other industry participants. Reality, face the truth, find a way for the industry, and seek the future. This article is the first in this series.
Recently, BTC has been fluctuating around 10,000 US dollars, but other currencies have been flat. From the perspective of currency performance in the secondary market, the cold winter is still continuing.
According to Babbitt's incomplete statistics, among the blockchain projects that were issued between 2017 and 1818 and were well-known at the time, 50 projects have fallen below the issue price (relative to legal currency), of which 14 projects are compared to the issue price. The decline was above 90%, almost zero.
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First, the fact that the star project aura is difficult to stop the price of coins falling
As of August 19, 2019, among the 50 items above, the median price of the issue price fell by 79%. According to the 10% drop interval, the projects with the decline of more than 90% accounted for the most. 26%.
Among the above 50 projects, whether it is the Dagu platform, the background of the famous school, or the team itself has mature blockchain experience, it is difficult to prevent the price of the currency from falling.
1 large platform, a drop of 98%
Known as the world's first blockchain-based satellite network – the space chain, there are many people at the time of fundraising, including Quantum Chain Qtum founder Shuai Chu, well-known big V Li Xiaolai, angel investor Xue Manzi, INK founder Tang Ling, the founder of Braised Pork HC, Xu Zijing (known as Martian), Bodhi BOT founder Lin Yanhong, and the founder of the blockchain pencil, the Prince of Christ.
According to media reports, the space chain is surrounded by a bunch of high-tech keywords such as "quantum", "space" and "satellite", plus many core figures of the previously successful "blockchain project", which will be collected within one day. 1 billion yuan. At present, the price of the currency has fallen by more than 98% relative to the issue price.
2 school auras, a drop of 94%
Fangtu, the core members of the team are from Yale University, Zhejiang University and other famous schools. According to the white paper, the goal of Fangtu is to build China's first financial public chain and the world's first OTC derivatives market blockchain solution. At present, the price has fallen by more than 94% relative to the issue price.
3 "national team" background, a drop of 96%
The six-domain chain is known as the world's first decentralized public blockchain ecosystem that integrates the Internet of Things “six-domain model” international, national standards and distributed blockchain reference architecture standards. As the founder of the six-domain chain, Shen Jie, is the overall team leader of the National IoT Basic Standards Working Group, the six-domain chain is regarded as the “national team” background in many self-media articles. At present, the price of the six domain chains has fallen by more than 96% relative to the issue price.
4 experience, a drop of 70%
Behind the VNT and BUMO projects are the leading blockchain start-up companies in the cloud-like blockchain and the Bubi blockchain, both of which are B-side routes, providing blockchain technology solutions for enterprises.
Yunxiang was established in 2014. According to the official website, Yunxiang is the earliest team engaged in blockchain technology research and commercial application in China. It has more than 50 invention patents for blockchain and more than 30 landing projects. The cumulative financing amount of Yunxiang is unknown. The most recent disclosure was in November 2018. The financing round was A round and the amount was tens of millions of yuan.
According to the official website of Bubi, Bubi began to work on blockchain technology in 2012. In March 2015, Bubi was established in Beijing to formally explore the commercial application of blockchain. In December of the same year, the first commercial block application case in China was completed. Since the establishment of the company, Bobby has accumulated more than 130 million yuan in financing. The most recent financing was in November 2017, and it received a round of financing of 100 million yuan.
VNT and BUMO were issued in May 2018 and July 2018 respectively. At present, the price of the two tokens is 83% and 76% lower than the issue price.
5 "Top Ten Kings", 70% broken
It is understood that at the end of 2017, there was a post in the currency circle that wrote "2018 Top Ten Private Equity", such as "Ethereum Killer" DFINITY, "Connector of Blockchain World" Penta, "Lightning Network on NEO" Trinity Wait. The definition of "Tianwang" cannot be verified. The general idea should mean that the 10 project teams have a luxurious background, strong technical strength and blessing by top investors.
On the team, for example, the core members of the Zilliqa team are from the National University of Singapore. The Dfinity team includes former Google and Uber engineers and several PhDs from Yale University.
Technically, for example, RSK is known as the Bitcoin Savior. It is an open source smart contract platform that is anchored to Bitcoin. The cryptographer Nick Saab once commented that RSK is "the best bitcoin (currency settlement system) + the best Ethereum (smart contract programming environment)." Due to the high popularity, there have been various false news of private fundraising in the past.
Investors endorsed DFINITY's investment in cryptocurrency investment funds a16z and Polychain Capital, owned by Silicon Valley's leading venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz. Investors of ONT include Sequoia Capital, Danhua Capital, Jingwei China, and Zhenge Fund.
(Note: Gray indicates broken)
At present, the above-mentioned "Tianwang" project, in addition to the RSK unreleased, the other nine projects and six projects have fallen below the issue price, especially the GOT, which is more than 99% lower than the issue price, close to zero.
2. Does the investor earn money from the star project?
For these 50 projects, if they buy at the issue price and hold at the highest price, the median return of the investor is 6 times.
Among them, 19 projects have created a return rate of more than 10 times, and the most rewarding project is MOAC, with a return rate of 67 times. Only 8 projects have a maximum return rate of no more than 100%, and the worst return is a six-domain chain with only 10%.
Third, return, there is hope?
If the investor buys at the issue price, then the above 50 items return to the issue price from the current price, and the median increase required is 380.74%. There is hope to return.
Among them, in the top 10 blockchain projects whose current price is farthest from the issue price, if you want to rise back to the issue price, the maximum need is 213 times, and at least 15 times.
If the investor unfortunately buys at the highest price and returns from the current price to the highest price, the median increase required is 41 times. Basically, there is no hope of returning .
Among them, in the top 10 blockchain projects whose current price is the farthest from the highest price, if you want to rise back to the highest price, the maximum need is 275 times, and at least 92 times.
It is worth noting that TNC, INK, SPC, and GOT appear on both lists.
Fourth, the project, there is hope?
On GitHub, Watch represents how many programmers are paying attention to the project. Star represents how many programmers have collected the project, and contributors represent the number of project developers. These three indicators can reflect to some extent whether the project side is still actively developing technology.
10 block block projects with 1Watch
Among the 50 projects, ELF, ZIL, NAS, RHOC, AION, IOST, YOYOW, WAN, MOAC, and BLZ received the most watches.
2Star's 10 blockchain projects
Among the 50 projects, ZIL received the most stars, followed by NAS, POA, ELF, RHOC, IOST, AION, WAN, YOYOW, INK and so on.
10 blockchain projects with up to 3 contributors
Among the 50 projects, the RHOC project contributed the most developers with 54 people. Followed by AION, TRUE, ZIL, ELF, NAS, YOYOW, IOST, LRC, UUU, the number of developers participating in the contribution code of these projects are more than 20 people.
414 projects will not update the code after the second half of 2019
The code version of Watch and Star is the most observable. MDS did not update the code between 2018 and 2019. The six projects MVC, CIC, PNT, SPC, GOT, and INK did not update the code in 2019. The seven projects of GNX, AIDOC, HC, MOAC, YOYOW, SDA, and TNC will not update the code after the second half of 2019.