QKL123 market analysis | "slow cooking" market will continue (0827)

Abstract: Yesterday after the BTC was suddenly pulled up, it fluctuated slightly. The market seems to have entered a period of tepid. The boring market is likely to continue for a while, and it will be $10,000 again in a short time.

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According to QKL123 statistics, at 13 o'clock on August 27, 2019, the total market value of the global Token market was 1.9138 billion yuan, the total market value of 24-hour increased or decreased by -1.54%, the total turnover was 371.867 billion yuan, and the total turnover changed -9.87%. Market activity has decreased. The Babbitt Composite Index reported 13801.93 points, up 24 hours to -1.34%; the Alternative sentiment index was 30, which was lower than yesterday (41), and the market sentiment was still fearful.

Among the top ten encrypted assets in the market capitalization (excluding USDT), XLM had the largest increase in 24 hours (+3.00%), and BNB had the largest decline in 24-hour (-3.64%). BTC rose by -0.64% in 24 hours, market share (67.82%) was slightly lower than yesterday (67.98%), ETH rose by -1.50% in 24 hours, market share (7.50%) was slightly lower than yesterday (7.57%) Falling, market risk aversion is still high. ChaiNext USDT's off-market discount premium index was 99.14 points, 24 hours up and down to +0.09%, USDT 24 hours up and down to +0.41%, today's net outflow of 39.026 million yuan, compared with yesterday (488.544 million yuan).

Today's global Bitcoin Google search trend relative value (peak 85) has dropped from yesterday (peak 94), approaching a three-month low. The top six countries are Nigeria (100), Brazil (53), South Africa (47), Austria (48), Germany (46) and Ghana (42). Among them, the Ghana Bitcoin search heat (peak 100) dropped significantly from yesterday (peak 72).

Analyst's point of view: If there is no major positive or bad, the market's short-term stage bottom needs to be fully adjusted. At present, the big funds in this position are not daring to pull the market. The market is starting to “slowly cook the leeks”. The boring market is likely to continue for a while, and the short-term may test the 10,000 dollars again.

First, the spot BTC market

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Yesterday, BTC continued to adjust sideways. It started to decline from 10,400 US dollars in the morning, and now it is down to 10,160 US dollars. There is a small amount of short-term volume and uncertainty. In the short-term, the staged bottom near 10,000 US dollars needs to be repeatedly tested by the market. BTC will swim in the downward extension of the daily convergence triangle, and there is a possibility of continuing upward convergence or heavy volume breakthrough.

Fund face

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As of 14:00, BTC's net outflow of funds today was 3,341.19 million yuan, which was reversed from yesterday. Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow is 14.41 million yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net outflow is 67.504 million yuan, and the medium single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net The outflow of 99.39 million yuan, the small outflow (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 242.59 million yuan. The market is dominated by small orders.

2. Fundamentals

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At present, the BTC's total network computing power is 74.17EH/s, which is slightly lower than yesterday (75.02EH/s), close to the historical high point, and the long-term upward trend has not changed. Yesterday, the number of coins destroyed was 5.664 million (historically smaller) than the previous day (476.08 million), and the long-term uptrend was not destroyed. Yesterday, the number of active addresses on the chain was 747,700, which was significantly higher than the previous day (496,500), which was close to the one-month average.

Second, the spot ETH market

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Market linkage ETH, from the high point of yesterday's high of 193 US dollars shocked down, the current down to 186 US dollars, the amount of energy has not been significantly released. In the early hours of the morning, the ETH/BTC trading pair fell slightly to a low of 0.018 BTC and the market performance was weaker and stronger.

Fund face

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As of 14:00, ETH's net capital inflow today was 4.8486 million yuan, a decrease from yesterday (642.647 million yuan). Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow of 109.956 million yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net inflow of 88.5667 million yuan, the middle (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net The inflow of 53.43 million yuan, the small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net inflow of 353.8290 million yuan. The market is dominated by small singles.

2. Fundamentals

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Observing the DAPPRADAR statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour ETH DApp has increased. Among them, the game application My Crypto Heroes has 24 hours of active users 2.9k, 24 hours change +14.43%; financial application MakerDAO's 24-hour active users 1.5k, 24 hours change +13.36%; quiz application Playtowin.io 24 hours The number of active users is 1k, 24 hours change +2.13%; the number of 24-hour active users of the transaction application imToken Tokenlon is 878, 24 hours change + 22.45%.

Third, the spot LTC market

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LTC oscillated slightly from yesterday's high of $75, and is currently hovering around $73. The LTC/BTC transaction continued to fluctuate around 0.0071 BTC, and today's market performance is weaker and stronger than BTC.

Fund face

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As of 14:00, the net inflow of LTC funds today was 163,839,700 yuan, which was lower than yesterday (22,147,100 yuan). Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow of 21,639,400 yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net inflow of 7310.19 yuan, the net inflow (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net inflow 2276.92 million yuan, a small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net inflow of 89.582 million yuan. The market is dominated by large orders and small orders.

2. Fundamentals

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At present, LTC's total network computing power is 340.98TH/s, which is higher than yesterday (314.06TH/s), which is close to the lowest point in three months. After the block reward is halved, the computing power will tend to decrease. Part of the miner's withdrawal or equipment elimination is related and it will take some time to recover. Yesterday, the number of LTC coins destroyed (466.518 million, historically small), compared with the previous day (1400.46 million), the long-term trend has not been destroyed. Yesterday, the number of active addresses in the chain was 61,500, an increase from the previous day (5.16 million), but still close to the low of three months.

Fourth, the spot EOS market

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EOS/BTC trading continued to perform weakly after the EOS yesterday draws a V-shaped and began to shrink slightly. The short-term rebound is strong.

Fund face

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As of 14:00, EOS's net outflow of funds today was 91.526 million yuan, an increase from yesterday. Among them, the over-single (more than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow is 7,706,100 yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net outflow is 46,273,400 yuan, and the medium single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net The outflow was 56.76 million yuan, and the net inflow of small orders (below 50,000 yuan) was 18.5791 million yuan. The market is mostly dominated by large orders and medium orders.

2. Fundamentals

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According to DAPPRADAR statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour EOS DApp has increased. Among them, the game PROSPECTORS 24-hour user number 3.2k, compared with yesterday's change +1.38%; quiz application Dice's 24-hour active users 2.3k, compared with yesterday's change +9.02%; data application Lumeos 24-hour active users 1.5k, Compared with yesterday's change -0.20%; trading application Newdex's 24-hour active users 1.3k, compared with yesterday's change -1.01%.

V. Analyst strategy

1. Long line (1-3 years)

The long-term trend of BTC is improving. Currently, it is in the stage of partial adjustment. The market of mad cows may come in the next one to two years, and it can be added on a dip. The smart contract platform leader ETH, the cottage coin LTC, the DPoS leader EOS BTC trading pair is in the low position of the year, and the opportunity to reverse the position, the position is not heavy can be bargain-hunting.

2. Midline (1-3 months)

Short-term BTCs are more likely to continue to adjust their reserves. If the positions are not heavy, they can increase their positions on a dip.

3. Short-term (1-3 days)

Short-term range volatility, small position high throw low suction, broken stop loss.

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Appendix – Index Interpretation

Babbitt Composite Index The Babbitt Composite Index (8BTCCI) consists of the largest and most representative Tokens in the global market for existing blockchains to reflect the price performance of the entire blockchain Token market.

Alternative Emotional Index The Fear & Greed Index reflects changes in the market's mood, with 0 meaning “extreme fear” and 100 meaning “extreme greed”. The indicators include: volatility (25%), trading volume (25%), social media (15%), online questionnaire (15%), market share (10%), trend (10%).

USDT Off- Site Depreciation Index ChaiNext USDT Off-Site Depreciation Index (USDT OTC INDEX) is obtained by dividing the USDT/CNY OTC price by the offshore RMB exchange rate and multiplying by 100. An index of 100 indicates USDT parity, an index greater than 100 indicates a USDT premium, and a value less than 100 indicates a USDT discount.

Net inflow of funds (out) This indicator reflects the inflow and outflow of funds in the secondary market. By calculating the difference between the inflow of funds and the outflow of funds on the global exchange (not including false transactions), positive values ​​indicate net inflows of funds, while negative values ​​indicate net outflows of funds. Among them, the turnover is calculated as the inflow of funds when the rise, and the turnover is calculated as the outflow when the decline occurs.

Bitcoin Coindays Destroyed refers to the product of the number of Bitcoins traded on the chain and the number of days held by Bitcoin. The larger the value, the greater the risk of selling pressure on the secondary market. BTC currency day destruction number classification: greater than or equal to 100 million is the maximum value; 50 to 100 million is the larger value; 10 to 50 million is the median; less than or equal to 10 million is the smaller value. LTC currency day destruction number classification: greater than or equal to 500 million is the maximum value; 100 million to 500 million is the larger value; 50 to 100 million is the median; less than or equal to 50 million is the smaller value.

Note: Encrypted assets are high-risk assets. This document is for decision-making purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.