QKL123 market analysis | Bitcoin rapid downturn, the altcoin transaction against the new low (0829)

Abstract: Bitcoin's rapid decline in the early morning has deviated from the upside convergence range. The altcoin currency has fallen sharply, and the bitcoin transaction has hit a new low in the year. The short-term market is highly uncertain.

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According to QKL123 statistics, at 13 o'clock on August 29, 2019, the total market value of the global Token market was 1,826.641 billion yuan, the total market value of 24-hour increased or decreased by -5.11%, the total turnover was 445.438 billion yuan, and the total turnover changed by +35.11%. Market activity has increased significantly. The Babbitt Composite Index reported 12821.89 points, up 24 hours to -6.15%; the Alternative sentiment index was 20, which was significantly lower than yesterday (32), and the market sentiment changed from fear to extreme fear.

Among the top ten encrypted assets in the market value (excluding USDT), BNB had the largest decline in 24 hours (-9.85%), and XLM had the largest increase in 24 hours (+1.84%). BTC rose by -3.88% in 24 hours, market share (67.96%) increased slightly compared with yesterday (67.73%), ETH rose by -6.94% in 24 hours, market share (7.29%) was lower than yesterday (7.51%) Falling, market risk aversion is still high. ChaiNext USDT Off-exchange Discount Index reported 100.21 points, 24 hours up to +0.67%, USDT 24 hours up and down to +0.95%, today's net inflow of funds was 13.095 million yuan, reversed yesterday.

Today, global Bitcoin's Google search relative value (peak 100) and yesterday (peak 82) increased significantly, reaching a seven-day high. The top seven countries are Nigeria (100), Brazil (53), Austria (49), Ghana (47), South Africa (47), Germany (45) and the Netherlands (44). Among them, the Dutch Bitcoin search heat (peak 97) increased significantly compared to yesterday (peak 67).

Analyst's point of view: The market quickly fell in the early hours of the morning, panic and risk aversion increased, Bitcoin quickly fell below 10,000 US dollars, out of the upside convergence range; the altcoin currency fell more, its bitcoin trading hit a new low in the year, but perhaps a comparison Good configuration opportunities.

First, the spot BTC market

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Around 01 am today, the BTC was slightly pulled up to $10,200 and then the volume dropped rapidly. The current minimum hit $9,500. The Air Force was temporarily suppressed, but the willingness to counterattack was not strong, and the market uncertainty was still large. From the 4-hour k-line, the BTC fell below the daily convergence triangle of the daily line. If it does not converge for a short period of time, it is likely to continue to test the support level.

Fund face

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As of 14:00, BTC's net outflow of funds today was 4,23,907,600 yuan, which was reversed from yesterday. Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow is 10717.28 million yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net outflow is 68.694 million yuan, and the medium single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net The outflow of 138,285,400 yuan, the small outflow (less than 50,000 yuan) net out of 110,283,940 yuan. The market is mostly reduced by small singles.

2. Fundamentals

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At present, the BTC's total network computing power is 75.46EH/s, which is slightly higher than yesterday (74.33EH/s), close to the historical high point, and the long-term upward trend has not changed. Yesterday, the number of coins destroyed was 5.172 million (historically smaller) than the previous day (117.233 million), and the long-term uptrend was not destroyed. Yesterday, the number of active addresses on the chain was 713,300, a slight decrease from the previous day (720,400), close to the one-month average.

Second, the spot ETH market

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At 01 o'clock in the morning, ETH began to release from 188 US dollars, the lowest rebound to 166 US dollars, and now oscillated from 170 US dollars. The ETH/BTC trading pair fell back from around 0.0184 BTC to 0.0177 BTC, hitting a low for the year.

Fund face

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As of 14:00, ETH's net outflow of funds today was 506.390 million yuan, which was reversed from yesterday. Among them, the net inflow of super large single (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) is 48,194,900 yuan, and the net outflow of large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) is 6,403,700 yuan, and the net is between RMB 50,000 and 300,000 yuan. The outflow of 236,652,700 yuan, the small outflow (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 25,397,330 yuan. The market is mostly reduced by small singles.

2. Fundamentals

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Observing DappRadar statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour ETH DApp increased slightly. Among them, the game application My Crypto Heroes has 24 hours of active users 2.6k, 24 hours change – 8.80%; financial application MakerDAO's 24-hour active users 1.8k, 24 hours change + 9.70%; quiz application Playtowin.io 24 hours The number of active users is 1k, 24 hours change +0.09%; the number of 24-hour active users of the transaction application imToken Tokenlon is 636, 24-hour change -21.87%.

Third, the spot LTC market

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In the early morning, LTC dropped from a low of 72 dollars to a low of 65 dollars, and then rebounded slightly to 67 dollars and then oscillated down. The LTC/BTC trading pair quickly went down from 0.0071BTC, the lowest down to 0.0065BTC, a new low in a year, and now it is rapidly increasing to 0.0070BTC.

Fund face

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As of 14:00, the net outflow of LTC funds today was 11.3023 million yuan, which was reversed from yesterday. Among them, the net inflow of oversized single (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) is 13.4886 million yuan, the net inflow of large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) is 4190.69 yuan, and the net inflow of medium single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) 741.32 million yuan, a small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 74.11 million yuan. The market is mostly reduced by small orders.

2. Fundamentals

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At present, LTC's total network computing power is 324.78TH/s, which is lower than yesterday's (343.84TH/s). It is close to the low point of three months. After the block reward is halved, the computing power will tend to decrease. Part of the miner's withdrawal or equipment elimination is related and it will take some time to recover. Yesterday, the number of LTC coins destroyed (10,114,200, the historically small value) was significantly lower than the previous day (677.162 million), and the long-term trend has not been destroyed. Yesterday, the number of active addresses on the chain was 61,100, which was significantly lower than the previous day (102,000), lower than the average of the past three months.

Fourth, the spot EOS market

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EOS rebounded slightly from the near-volume of $3.5 to $3.1, and now fluctuates slightly around $3.2. The EOS/BTC trades the lowest pin to 0.0003 BTC, hitting a new low for the year and currently oscillating around 0.00034 BTC.

Fund face

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As of 14:00, EOS's net outflow of funds today was 41,058,200 yuan, a significant increase from yesterday (5,646,900 yuan). Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow is 8,234,600 yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net outflow is 7993.81 yuan, and the medium single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net outflow 12,227.17 million yuan, a small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 1996,13,900 yuan. The market is mostly reduced by small singles.

2. Fundamentals

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According to DappRadar statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour EOS DApp increased slightly. Among them, the game PROSPECTORS 24-hour user number 3.2k, compared with yesterday's change -0.89%; quiz application Dice's 24-hour active users 2.2k, compared with yesterday's change +9.81%; data application Lumeos 24-hour active users 1.5k, Compared with yesterday's change -0.07%; trading application Newdex's 24-hour active users 1.2k, +6.51% change from yesterday.

V. Analyst strategy

1. Long line (1-3 years)

The long-term trend of BTC is improving. Currently, it is in the stage of partial adjustment. The market of mad cows may come in the next one to two years, and it can be added on a dip. The BTC trading of the intelligent contract platform leader ETH, the cottage coin LTC, and the DPoS leader EOS is close to the low of the year and can be configured on a dip.

2. Midline (1-3 months )

The possibility that the short-term BTC will continue to adjust its reserves still exists, and it can be added to the bargain-hunting. At present, the BTC trading of the altcoin is new to the low, and the position is not heavy.

3. Short-term (1-3 days)

Short-term market is not stable, wait and see.

14 Appendix – Index Interpretation

Babbitt Composite Index The Babbitt Composite Index (8BTCCI) consists of the largest and most representative Tokens in the global market for existing blockchains to reflect the price performance of the entire blockchain Token market.

Alternative Emotional Index The Fear & Greed Index reflects changes in the market's mood, with 0 meaning “extreme fear” and 100 meaning “extreme greed”. The indicators include: volatility (25%), trading volume (25%), social media (15%), online questionnaire (15%), market share (10%), trend (10%).

USDT Off- Site Depreciation Index ChaiNext USDT Off-Site Depreciation Index (USDT OTC INDEX) is obtained by dividing the USDT/CNY OTC price by the offshore RMB exchange rate and multiplying by 100. An index of 100 indicates USDT parity, an index greater than 100 indicates a USDT premium, and a value less than 100 indicates a USDT discount.

Net inflow of funds (out) This indicator reflects the inflow and outflow of funds in the secondary market. By calculating the difference between the inflow of funds and the outflow of funds on the global exchange (not including false transactions), positive values ​​indicate net inflows of funds, while negative values ​​indicate net outflows of funds. Among them, the turnover is calculated as the inflow of funds when the rise, and the turnover is calculated as the outflow when the decline occurs.

Bitcoin Coindays Destroyed refers to the product of the number of Bitcoins traded on the chain and the number of days held by Bitcoin. The larger the value, the greater the risk of selling pressure on the secondary market. BTC currency day destruction number classification: greater than or equal to 100 million is the maximum value; 50 to 100 million is the larger value; 10 to 50 million is the median; less than or equal to 10 million is the smaller value. LTC currency day destruction number classification: greater than or equal to 500 million is the maximum value; 100 million to 500 million is the larger value; 50 to 100 million is the median; less than or equal to 50 million is the smaller value.

Note: Encrypted assets are high-risk assets. This document is for decision-making purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.