78% of the cottage currency hit a three-month low, is it worth investing?

The plunge in the early morning of August 29 suddenly broke the price of BTC by 10,000 US dollars. Many of the altcoins were even more horrible.

Investor confidence is once again frustrated, is the bull market over? Is the bear market coming again?

In order to answer the above questions, Babbitt did a simple research and hoped to be able to help investors.

WeChat group: popular cold

"Old iron quickly got up to buy coins", at 3 am on August 29, a group of "XX Dingtou Group" sent a screenshot of the market, and Aite had a group of friends in the group.

No one cares about him.

It was only until 7 in the morning that another group of friends replied, "In the economic crisis, Zhuang has started selling coins."

"This is the last drop, this position has been panic," another group member echoed.

In the past, in the face of the market plunging, the group must be an excited bottom-hunting voice.

The "XX Black Village" next door is also very popular, and the chat record is awkward.

"The sickle has cashed out of the game, the game has a memory game, the platform currency has collapsed." "Cut, 99% of the loss" "The landlord has no money to pull the plate" "Report the securities qualification examination at the end of the year, then look for A stock securities company goes to work."

Babbitt also randomly observed from several other WeChat groups, and it is almost rare to see someone willing to chat about the market. The market is almost dead.

The project group is also very popular, except for the occasional official news of the project operators, the group members rarely speak and interact.

WeChat screenshot_20190829203346

(A project group, from 5 am to the time of publication, the most recent exchange record)

Value investment is invalid: either don’t buy or buy BTC

As of press time (20 o'clock on August 29), the Babbitt Value Index reported 5,944 points, and at the beginning of this year, this value was 6,984 points. At the same time, the CSI100X index released by Chainext reported 1976 points, which is close to the 1952 points at the beginning of this year.

(Note: The Babbitt Value Index consists of 27 of the most promising listed Tokens that do not include BTC. The CSI100X consists of the largest and most liquid 100 tokens in the BTC post-marketing market.)

From the beginning of 2019 to the present, BTC has increased by about 150%.

Obviously, regardless of the growth or stability of the investment, this year's big probability is busy.

Picture 14

(Source: qkl123 )

The altcoin has fallen: over 78% of the cottage coins hit a three-month low

According to the statistics of coincheckup, of the 2,334 tokens, only 500 have achieved positive returns in the past three months, accounting for 21.42%. In other words, more than 78% of the tokens hit a new low for nearly three months today. The median decline in these tokens exceeded 50%.

If the time is stretched, according to the nomics data, from the beginning of 2019, there are 801 tokens in the statistics of the ups and downs (the number of tokens listed before 2019 and still trading), only 270 tokens have been obtained. Revenue, 532 negative returns, accounting for more than 66%, the median decline was above 50%.

With the decline in the price of the currency, the project party’s life is not good.

ChaiNext founder Tan Ke told Babbitt that in this structured market, only Bitcoin is relatively active, and the altcoin is very bad. In addition to the head of the exchange can make money, and a few star projects can make a lot of money to earn, the entire industry is currently more pessimistic.

"The obvious feature is that now, unlike the 17 years, when the project party made a random concept, it would cost a lot of money. In this market, the pure concept hype has already passed. You have to look at many project applications. However , under the current circumstances, blockchain projects basically have no income, let alone profit, everyone is confused , and they are all in a bleak life."

Is the bull market still there?

From the beginning of the year to the present, under the leadership of BTC, the altcoin has died after a short round of carnival, leaving only the BTC to stand out.

From the above data, the bull market of the altcoin has long since ended, and the BTC's bull market continuity is people's concern.

Among the people interviewed by Babbitt, whether it is an exchange analyst, a trader or an institutional investor, they are generally optimistic about the BTC bull market.

The contract emperor is really big V Yue is in it – Banmu Xia believes that after three months of rising bitcoin, the upside momentum is insufficient and it takes a long time to adjust. After falling below 10,000, it may continue to fall, and then oscillate around 850,000-100,000 to form a mid-term bottom, and continue to continue the bull market at the end of September.

OKEX analyst Yan Song judged according to the delivery contract premium and the perpetual contract rate indicator, the overall market sentiment was seriously frustrated. However, long-term bitcoin is still in the uptrend channel. The MA50/200 bullish golden fork on the 3-day line formed at the end of July is still valid; if the price breaks through the MA200 (currently around $7,400), it will directly change the bullish bear pattern.

As for the altcoin market, everyone is generally pessimistic .

Yue is in it – Banmu Xia said that he no longer holds altcoins in his hands, all of which are big cakes (BTC) and a small number of mainstream coins.

Nie, a partner at DFG Crypto, believes that 90% (or even higher) of the altcoin will die.

Where is the exit of the altcoin?

For this problem, the COO of the coin directly responded to the local reply, " Which cottages have to have a way out … In the 17 years, everyone together with the cattle does not mean that they will be together."

Ni Kuang is an objective analysis of the reasons why the abalone coins are walking:

First, the business model described in the white paper for most projects is not sustainable, and death is inevitable. Second, most of the altcoins do not have any application, and even the number of teams is single digit. The valuation of the currency is still high.

Third, after 2019, the users of the currency reserve have hardly contributed any new funds. Everyone will either not vote, or they will lick the wool, or they will hold the coins or they will have no money.

As for the way out , Ni Kuang believes that from a fundamental point of view , when the project has a large enough community to run a sufficient number of applications, and maintain a high computing power, it will push the price of coins up. In this process, weakly competitive projects will be eliminated. From the perspective of traffic sources , for the domestic market, it is necessary to attract people from 3-5 cities or even more margins to enter the currency circle, because in the 2017 bull market, the admission of Kochi people in the first and second tier cities has basically entered. The characteristics of the 3-5 line urban population are extremely large, and the customer unit price is low, but the scale of funds is much larger than that of first- and second-tier cities. For foreign markets in Europe and America, the increase in funds is in the organization, so DFG is also setting up a compliance exchange for the European and American markets.