QKL123 market analysis | Market rebound is weak, hope that "Golden September and Silver 10" (0830)

Abstract: Today's market rebound is weak, but Bitcoin has not fallen below the previous low, and the stability may still exist. There are likely good news in the next two months. Looking forward to the "Golden September and Silver 10" of encrypted assets, the good timing of the mid-line may also appear in the near future.

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According to QKL123 statistics, at 13 o'clock on August 30, 2019, the total market value of the global Token market was 180.397 billion yuan, the total market value of 24-hour increased or decreased by -1.01%, the total turnover was 400.084 billion yuan, and the total turnover changed -9.57%. Market activity has decreased. The Babbitt Composite Index reported 12650.85 points, up 24 hours to -1.36%; the Alternative sentiment index was 24, slightly higher than yesterday (20), and the market sentiment was still extremely fearful.

Among the top ten encrypted assets in the market value (excluding USDT), XLM had the largest decline in 24 hours (-8.04%), and BSV had the largest increase in 24 hours (+1.57%). BTC rose by -1.17% in 24 hours, market share (67.95%) was slightly lower than yesterday (67.96%), ETH rose by -1.45% in 24 hours, market share (7.28%) was slightly lower than yesterday (7.29%) Falling, market risk aversion is still high. ChaiNext USDT OTC discount premium index reported 100.80 points, 24 hours up and down to +0.57%, USDT 24 hours up and down -0.05%, today's net capital inflow of 2,925,100 yuan, compared with yesterday (130,958,800 yuan).

Today, global Bitcoin's Google search relative value (peak 86) and yesterday (peak 100) dropped significantly, close to the seven-day average. The top seven countries are Nigeria (100), Brazil (53), Austria (52), South Africa (49), Germany (46), Switzerland (46) and Ghana (47). Among them, Switzerland's Bitcoin search heat (peak 100) is significantly higher than yesterday (peak 91).

Analyst's point of view: On September 06 and September 23, Bakkt's Bitcoin storage service and Bitcoin physical delivery futures contracts will be launched separately. On September 29th, October 13th and October 18th, Wilshire Phoenix, Bitwise and SolidX three bitcoin ETF proposals will be “finally decided” by the SEC again. As the transparency and liquidity of crypto assets increase, the Bitcoin ETF will be passed. In the next two months, it may be a "golden nine silver ten", at least the market will ferment with the news. In a short period of time, the market rebounded weakly, and panic and risk aversion were still heavier, waiting for a possible right side opportunity.

First, the spot BTC market

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Yesterday, the BTC touched a small amount of 9300 US dollars and then fluctuated slightly. The short-term market was pinned up and down, and the willingness to attack was insufficient. The short-term market range fluctuated and the upper resistance was 10,000 US dollars. At present, BTC has once again obtained strong support at 9,000 US dollars, and has not yet fallen below the downward convergence triangle. If there is a heavy volume upside in this annex, there will be a high probability of opening the right position.

Fund face

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As of 14:00, BTC's net capital inflow today was 72,216,700 yuan, which was reversed from yesterday. Among them, the net inflow of oversized single (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) is 167,957,200 yuan, the net inflow of large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) is 224,488,500 yuan, and the net is in the middle (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan). The inflow of 429.34 million yuan, the small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 1000.25 million yuan. The market is mostly built in the middle of the market.

2. Fundamentals

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At present, the BTC's total network computing power is 76.65EH/s, which is slightly higher than yesterday (75.46EH/s), close to the historical high point, and the long-term upward trend has not changed. Yesterday, the number of coins destroyed was 4.181 million (historically smaller), which was lower than the previous day (517.20 million). The long-term uptrend was not destroyed. Yesterday, the number of active addresses on the chain was 735,800, a slight increase from the previous day (713,000), which was close to the one-month average.

Second, the spot ETH market

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Yesterday, the ETH/BTC transaction fluctuated slightly between 0.0176BTC and 0.0178BTC, and the current performance is relatively weak. ETH has a downward insertion of $163. Currently, it is mainly oscillated between $166 and $170. The amount of short-term release can shrink.

Fund face

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As of 14:00, ETH's net inflow of funds today was 31,656,600 yuan, which was reversed from yesterday. Among them, the net inflow of oversized single (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) is 4.11 million yuan, the net inflow of large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) is 121.68 million yuan, and the net is between 10,000 yuan and 300,000 yuan. The inflow of 5,076,600 yuan, the small inflow (less than 50,000 yuan) net inflow of 24,421,140 yuan. The market is mostly built with small orders.

2. Fundamentals

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Observing the DappRadar statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour ETH DApp was reduced. Among them, the game application My Crypto Heroes has 24 hours of active users 2.8k, 24 hours change +8.38%; financial application MakerDAO's 24-hour active users 1.6k, 24 hours change -7.25%; trading application imToken Tokenlon 24 hours active The number of users is 525, 24 hours change -17.97%.

Third, the spot LTC market

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Last night, LTC's small-volume downtrend dropped to a minimum of 62 US dollars. After that, it rebounded slightly to 65 US dollars and then oscillated downward. Now it is back to 62 US dollars, and the trend is still downward. The LTC/BTC trading pair has slightly declined from 0.0070BTC, and is currently down to the low of 0.0066BTC in the year, showing relatively weak performance.

Fund face

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As of 14:00, the net inflow of LTC funds today was 61.212 million yuan, which was reversed from yesterday. Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow is 35.761 million yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net inflow of 9551.13 yuan, the net inflow (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net inflow 1827.80 million yuan, a small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 16.6912 million yuan. The market has a large divergence, with a large number of warehouses.

2. Fundamentals

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At present, LTC's total network computing power is 316.54TH/s, which is lower than yesterday's (324.78TH/s). It is close to the low point of three months. After the block reward is halved, the computing power will tend to decrease. Part of the miner's withdrawal or equipment elimination is related and it will take some time to recover. Yesterday, the number of LTC coins destroyed (178.816 million, historically small), compared with the previous day (10.114 million), the long-term trend has not been destroyed. Yesterday, the number of active addresses on the chain was 61,000, which was slightly lower than the previous day (6.11 million), lower than the average of the past three months.

Fourth, the spot EOS market

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The EOS/BTC transaction is re-inserted to a minimum of 0.00032 BTC and is currently back to around 0.00034 BTC. At the same time, the EOS pin went back to $3.1 and then returned to the vicinity of $3.2.

Fund face

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As of 14:00, EOS's net inflow of funds today was 60,166,600 yuan, which was reversed yesterday. Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow of 19.01 million yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net outflow of 1046.51 yuan, the middle of the single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net outflow The net inflow of small-small (below 50,000 yuan) net was 78.854 million yuan. The market has a large divergence, with most of the small orders being lightened.

2. Fundamentals

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According to DappRadar statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour EOS DApp has decreased. Among them, the game's PROSPECTORS 24-hour user number 3.2k, compared with yesterday's change -2.29%; quiz application Dice's 24-hour active users 2.2k, compared with yesterday's change -0.44%; data application Lumeos 24-hour active users 1.5k, Compared with yesterday's change -0.34%; trading application Newdex's 24-hour active users 1.2k, compared with yesterday's change -8.06%.

V. Analyst strategy

1. Long line (1-3 years)

The long-term trend of BTC is improving. Currently, it is in the stage of partial adjustment. The market of mad cows may come in the next one to two years, and it can be added on a dip. The BTC trading of the intelligent contract platform leader ETH, the cottage coin LTC, and the DPoS leader EOS is close to the low of the year and can be configured on a dip.

2. Midline (1-3 months)

There may be a rise in the next two months, waiting for the market to stabilize and increase positions.

3. Short-term (1-3 days)

Short-term range shocks, it is recommended to wait and see.

14 Appendix – Index Interpretation

Babbitt Composite Index The Babbitt Composite Index (8BTCCI) consists of the largest and most representative Tokens in the global market for existing blockchains to reflect the price performance of the entire blockchain Token market.

Alternative Emotional Index The Fear & Greed Index reflects changes in the market's mood, with 0 meaning “extreme fear” and 100 meaning “extreme greed”. The indicators include: volatility (25%), trading volume (25%), social media (15%), online questionnaire (15%), market share (10%), trend (10%).

USDT Off- Site Depreciation Index ChaiNext USDT Off-Site Depreciation Index (USDT OTC INDEX) is obtained by dividing the USDT/CNY OTC price by the offshore RMB exchange rate and multiplying by 100. An index of 100 indicates USDT parity, an index greater than 100 indicates a USDT premium, and a value less than 100 indicates a USDT discount.

Net inflow of funds (out) This indicator reflects the inflow and outflow of funds in the secondary market. By calculating the difference between the inflow of funds and the outflow of funds on the global exchange (not including false transactions), positive values ​​indicate net inflows of funds, while negative values ​​indicate net outflows of funds. Among them, the turnover is calculated as the inflow of funds when the rise, and the turnover is calculated as the outflow when the decline occurs.

Bitcoin Coindays Destroyed refers to the product of the number of Bitcoins traded on the chain and the number of days held by Bitcoin. The larger the value, the greater the risk of selling pressure on the secondary market. BTC currency day destruction number classification: greater than or equal to 100 million is the maximum value; 50 to 100 million is the larger value; 10 to 50 million is the median; less than or equal to 10 million is the smaller value. LTC currency day destruction number classification: greater than or equal to 500 million is the maximum value; 100 million to 500 million is the larger value; 50 to 100 million is the median; less than or equal to 50 million is the smaller value.

Note: Encrypted assets are high-risk assets. This document is for decision-making purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.