There are three major negative supply shocks that could trigger a global recession in 2020, and all of these shocks reflect some of the political factors that influence international relations. The first potential shock comes from trade friction between China and the US; the second It is the cold war that the US and China are slowly brewing in science and technology. The United States has included China’s telecom giant Huawei as a “list of entities” for foreign companies that pose a national security threat. The third major potential shock involves oil supply. Although oil prices have fallen in recent weeks, and the economic recession triggered by trade, currency and technology wars will curb energy demand and push prices down, the US-Iranian confrontation may lead to counterproductive effects.
All three of these potential shocks have stagflation effects, increasing the prices of imported consumer goods, intermediate inputs, technology components and energy, while disrupting global supply chains and causing output declines. To make matters worse, the Sino-US trade conflict has promoted a broader process of de-globalization, because countries and businesses can no longer rely on the long-term stability of these integrated value chains. As trade in goods, services, capital, labor, information, data and technology is increasingly falling apart, global production costs will rise in all industries. Doesn't the current surge in prices just reflect this phenomenon?
The weakness of the cryptocurrency market is obvious. In the early days of the bubble burst, almost all high-risk assets will be sold wildly. This is an inevitable phenomenon. When the panic disk floods, you are copied to the historical bottom. At the moment, be patient.
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BTC finally regained its 5 antennas, but I don't think the market will start to rebound at this point. It doesn't meet the characteristics of the bottom. The volume has been shrinking. I still insist that this is a medium-term adjustment. The trend is a general correction for the whole year's rise. The current callback is around 0.5, but the target has not stabilized, so it will continue to test the support around 0.618. According to the measurement algorithm, The target's next target is around $7,200-7,500. It is also a transaction-intensive area with a certain amount of support. The current point is not the bottom at all, just a down relay, there will be competition for this place in the 5 antennas. The possibility of this round of downswing to break the low point of August 15 will be very high. I have not bargained, and I still wait and see.
The rebound of ETH is much weaker than that of BTC. The decline of this target is far more than that of BTC, but we see that the rebound is much worse, the volume is shrinking, and there is no 5 antenna. The 5 antenna still forms a certain price. Pressure, we have also been stressing that the target does not take the conditions of independent market, the value of participation has not been high, and the gap can be seen from the decline. Most of the funds participating in the target belong to the follow-up market, the market is not good, they go The fastest, so whether you can stop falling or stare at Bitcoin, and the next strong support of the target is around $150, combined with the trend of Bitcoin, if there is a heavy or small position at this point. Participation, at this point, I have not seen the bottom-up signal, waiting patiently.
BNB maintains the medium-term adjustment judgment, the market is very weak, and there is no intention of bargain-hunting. I personally think that the target will further explore and seek support. According to the measurement of the decline, the target may be effectively supported near 18 dollars, but what kind of The rhythm has reached this point. It is not easy to say that in the whole process of the downswing, it may be possible to counter-tap $24 to confirm whether the break is effective. If there is a counter-attack to leave the game, if a few big Yinxian hit 18 dollars directly Nearby, and with the heavy volume, I will consider the small position of the bargain-hunting, does not constitute a suggestion, pay attention to the risk, is currently completely down the 5 antenna, at any time may be back 10 antenna.
The author's point of view is only used for learning communication, not as an investment recommendation, and does not constitute an investment basis!
This article data source: QKL123