At the end of August, Bitcoin showed resistance on the upside, and fell below 10,000. The main currencies, Ethereum, EOS, BCH, etc., fell back to the previous lows. The Shanzhai coins even hit a record low, and the market sentiment was low, as if they entered again. The bear market stage. But in early September, Bitcoin returned to more than $10,000, and some mainstream currencies rebounded.
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As we all know, the New York Stock Exchange Bakkt's bitcoin futures on the line has had a greater impact on the entire cryptocurrency market in the past year or so. It can be said that it is expected. However, the launch of Bakkt futures has caused a lot of twists and turns, and it has indeed made the people in the circle hope to burst again and again. The influence of BAKKT's favorable expectations on the market has gradually become weak.
As reported on August 16th, Bakkt, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange's parent company, the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), announced that it plans to launch a bitcoin futures contract for physical settlement on September 23. The impact on the market is relatively weak. When Bakkt really wants to cash out, Bitcoin has not risen a lot, but it has fallen slightly.
In order to boost market confidence, on August 29th, Bakkt official Twitter said that it will start providing safe bitcoin storage service on September 6th, preparing for the daily and monthly futures of Bakkt Bitcoin launched on September 23. Seeing that the agreed time will come, affected by this, Bitcoin will return to more than 10,000 US dollars, welcoming the upcoming Bakkt futures officially launched.
After all, Bakkt's positive expectations are indeed diluted a lot. If there is no huge trading volume to support after the official launch, the early positives may reverse into negative, and the entire cryptocurrency market will be under pressure. The $10,000 may not constitute a bit. Strong support of the currency.
In fact, the impact of the Bitcoin market is also related to the traditional financial market. Like the gold market, when the traditional market economy performs better, most people choose the target of the traditional market to invest, otherwise they choose gold for risk avoidance. Bitcoin called Digital Gold.
On July 31, Fed Chairman Powell announced the first interest rate cut since 2008. The market expects to cut interest rates by 50 basis points, but the Fed only cut interest rates by 25 basis points. At the same time, Powell laid the possibility of a rate cut without a rate cut in the Fed rate decision in September. The market is unacceptable, US stocks plummeted, and the three major stock indexes hit the biggest daily decline in the year. At the same time, due to Sino-US trade friction, the US has strong expectations for interest rate hikes to stimulate the economy.
The performance of the market indicates that the Federal Reserve interest rate decision meeting in September is more inclined to cut interest rates. If the rate cut cycle is officially entered, then the United States will officially enter the period of quantitative easing, which will arouse the market bubble. We can probably think that during the bubble period, a considerable part of the assets will enter the financial indicators such as the stock market, thus stimulating the rapid expansion of the bubble.
At this time, gold or bitcoin will be ignored. Only when the Fed raises interest rates to pierce the bubble will people greet people with risk aversion, thus transferring assets to gold-like risk aversion targets. This bubble period may last a long time, not a one-time move. For Bitcoin, it may not be the same as most media reports. The early stage of interest rate cuts may be bad, not bullish.
Summary: Bakkt futures are on the line, although the expected positives are gradually being squandered by time, but the market is facing the arrival of the scheduled launch date or choose to go in the right direction. If Bakkt is not up to expectations (the transaction volume is not huge), the positive will instantly become bearish; At the same time, in the September meeting of interest rates, if the Fed continues to cut interest rates, then it will benefit the stock market, and may initially be bad for Bitcoin. And all these upcoming bad needs need to be hedged by bitcoin halving, and September is destined to be extraordinary.
Source 丨莱道 blockchain (laidaoblockchain)