QKL123 market analysis | Bitcoin attacked 10,000 US dollars, local adjustment tends to end (0903)

Abstract: In the early morning of this morning, the bitcoin volume hit 10,000 US dollars, but the performance of the altcoin is weak (relative price hits a new low in the year), the market risk aversion is still heavy, and the short-term market uncertainty is greater. In the short term, local adjustments tend to end, and the upward trend will start in the near future.

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According to QKL123 statistics, at 13 o'clock on September 3, 2019, the total market value of the global Token market was 1,927.024 billion yuan, the total market value of 24 hours increased or decreased by +5.27%, the total turnover was 414.515 billion yuan, and the total turnover changed by +41.75%. The market activity has increased significantly. The Babbitt Composite Index reported 13559.56 points, with a 24-hour rise and fall of +5.12%; the Alternative sentiment index was 41, which was significantly higher than yesterday (28), and the market sentiment changed from extreme fear to mild fear.

Among the top ten encrypted assets in the market value (excluding USDT), BTC has the largest increase in 24 hours (+5.62%), and XRP has the smallest increase in 24 hours (+1.12%). The market value of BTC (69.02%) is significantly higher than yesterday, the highest since 2018, ETH 24 hours up +3.50%, market share (7.18%) is slightly lower than yesterday, market risk aversion is still high. ChaiNext USDT's off-exchange discount premium index was 99.51 points, 24 hours up and down -0.84%, USDT 24 hours up and down -0.86%, today's net capital inflow was 11.3691 million, a slight increase from yesterday.

Today, global Bitcoin's Google search relative value (peak 95) increased significantly from yesterday (peak 84), approaching a seven-day high. The top seven countries are Nigeria (100), Brazil (51), Ghana (45), South Africa (43), Austria (41), Switzerland (38), and Germany (38). Among them, Germany's Bitcoin search heat (peak 84) increased significantly compared to yesterday (peak 70).

Analyst's point of view: Yesterday's good news, Burger King, the world's second-largest chain restaurant company, has received bitcoin payments in Germany. It has more than 10,000 stores in more than 60 countries around the world, with daily customer traffic exceeding 11 million. The increase in bitcoin volume may be boosted by the news. Currently, it is in the middle of the convergence of the daily triangle. The market as a whole has not gone out of the shock zone, and the short-term uncertainty is large.

First, the spot BTC market

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Yesterday morning, the BTC quickly rose from 9,500 US dollars to 9,800 US dollars, and then fluctuated slightly. In the early morning, it broke through the resistance level of 10,000 US dollars. It is now slightly smaller than the 10,400 US dollars. From the four-hour K-line, BTC came to the middle of the convergence triangle. After a slight correction, there was a short-term uplifting inertia, but it would encounter a strong resistance at $11,000. Judging from the historical comprehensive performance of Bitcoin, short-term partial adjustments tend to end, and the upward trend will be opened in the near future.

Fund face

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As of 14:00, BTC's net inflow of funds today was 466,880,200 yuan, a slight increase from yesterday. Among them, the net inflow of oversized single (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) is 7.7485 million yuan, the net inflow of large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) is 113.30 million yuan, and the net is between 10,000 yuan and 300,000 yuan. The inflow of 169.469 million yuan, the small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 10662.53 million. The market is mostly built in the middle of the market.

2. Fundamentals

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At present, the total computing power of BTC is 79.20EH/s, which is slightly higher than yesterday (78.57EH/s), close to the highest point in history, and the long-term upward trend has not changed. Yesterday, the number of currency days destroyed was 5,397,400 (historically smaller) than the previous day (3,375,500), but the long-term uptrend was not destroyed. Yesterday, the number of active addresses on the chain was 725,200, which was significantly higher than the previous day (560,600), which was close to the one-month average.

Second, the spot ETH market

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In the early hours of the morning, ETH started the upside from $170, a small amount of up to $180, and a short-term upside of $181, which is currently fluctuating slightly between $176 and $179. The follow-up needs to be stabilized by BTC, and ETH is expected to hit $180. The ETH/BTC transaction hit a new low in the year and is now slightly fluctuating around 0.0170BTC. The current performance is still relatively weak.

Fund face

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As of 14:00, ETH's net capital inflow today was 88,008,400 yuan, a slight decrease from yesterday. Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow of 11.4082 million yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net inflow of 23,947,600 yuan, in the single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net The inflow of 182.3 million yuan, the small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net inflow of 469.71 million yuan. The market is mostly built with small orders.

2. Fundamentals

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Observing DappRadar statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour ETH DApp increased slightly. Among them, the game application My Crypto Heroes has 24 hours of active users 2.6k, 24 hours change -1.93%; financial application MakerDAO's 24-hour active users 1.4k, 24 hours change +10.06%; trading application imToken Tokenlon 24 hours active The number of users is 654, 24 hours change + 4.81%.

Third, the spot LTC market

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Yesterday, the LTC/BTC trading pair quickly went down from the high point of 0.0070BTC, and is currently down to the new low of 0.0064BTC in the year, showing relatively weak performance. At present, LTC returned to yesterday's high of around 67 US dollars, and the short-term upward willingness to break is weak.

Fund face

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As of 14:00, the net inflow of LTC funds today was 251,957,000 yuan, a slight increase from yesterday. Among them, the large outflow (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) net outflow is 71.636 million yuan, the large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) net inflow is 5,828.54 yuan, and the net inflow (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) net inflow The net inflow of 175.084 million yuan and small orders (below 50,000 yuan) was 10,479,900 yuan. The market is mostly built with small orders.

2. Fundamentals

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At present, LTC's total network computing power is 287.64TH/s, which is lower than yesterday's (312.97TH/s). It is close to the low point of three months. After the block reward is halved, the computing power will tend to decrease. Part of the miner's withdrawal or equipment elimination is related and it will take some time to recover. However, if the whole network computing power is followed by new lows, there will be a risk of stamping. Yesterday, the number of LTC coins destroyed (818.28 million, historically small), compared with the previous day (140.161 million), the long-term trend has not been destroyed. Yesterday, the number of active addresses on the chain was 5,900, a slight increase from the previous day (51,300), close to the low since March.

Fourth, the spot EOS market

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The previous day and yesterday, EOS respectively inserted 3.4 US dollars and 3.1 US dollars in the upper and lower pins, and staged long and short double bursts. In the early hours of the morning, EOS went up from $3.27 to $3.38, and then fell back and swayed. The EOS/BTC transaction is close to the new low in the year and is currently back to around 0.00032 BTC.

Fund face

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As of 14:00, EOS's net outflow of funds today was 49.642 million yuan, which was reversed yesterday. Among them, the net inflow of super large single (greater than or equal to 1 million yuan) is 4,102,900 yuan, the net outflow of large single (between 300,000 yuan and 1 million yuan) is 1,604.49 yuan, and the net outflow of medium single (between 50,000 and 300,000 yuan) 9396.30 million yuan, a small single (less than 50,000 yuan) net outflow of 56.623 million yuan. The market has a large divergence, with most of the orders being reduced.

2. Fundamentals

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According to DappRadar statistics, the overall activity of the 24-hour EOS DApp was slightly reduced. Among them, the game's PROSPECTORS 24 hours of users 3k, compared with yesterday's change +1.97%; quiz application Dice's 24-hour active users 2.2k, compared with yesterday's change – 6.64%; data application Lumeos 24 hours active users 1.5k, compared Yesterday's change -0.07%; trading application Newdex's 24-hour active users 1.2k, +2.23% change from yesterday.

V. Analyst strategy

1. Long line (1-3 years)

The long-term trend of BTC is improving. Currently, it is in the stage of partial adjustment. The market of mad cows may come in the next one to two years, and it can be added on a dip. The TC of the smart contract platform and the BTC of the altcoin leader LTC have a new low price and can be bargain-hunting.

2. Midline (1-3 months)

In the near future, it is expected to go out of the upward trend, and those who do not have a strong position will be bargain-hunting.

3. Short-term (1-3 days)

Short-term range volatility, can be low-selling and low-selling in small positions, breaking the stop loss.

14 Appendix – Index Interpretation

Babbitt Composite Index

The Babbitt Composite Index (8BTCCI) consists of the largest and most representative Tokens in the global market for existing blockchains to reflect the price performance of the entire blockchain Token market.

Alternative Emotional Index The Fear & Greed Index reflects changes in the market's mood, with 0 meaning “extreme fear” and 100 meaning “extreme greed”. The indicators include: volatility (25%), trading volume (25%), social media (15%), online questionnaire (15%), market share (10%), trend (10%).

USDT Off- Site Depreciation Index ChaiNext USDT Off-Site Depreciation Index (USDT OTC INDEX) is obtained by dividing the USDT/CNY OTC price by the offshore RMB exchange rate and multiplying by 100. An index of 100 indicates USDT parity, an index greater than 100 indicates a USDT premium, and a value less than 100 indicates a USDT discount.

Net inflow of funds (out) This indicator reflects the inflow and outflow of funds in the secondary market. By calculating the difference between the inflow of funds and the outflow of funds on the global exchange (not including false transactions), positive values ​​indicate net inflows of funds, while negative values ​​indicate net outflows of funds. Among them, the turnover is calculated as the inflow of funds when the rise, and the turnover is calculated as the outflow when the decline occurs.

Bitcoin Coindays Destroyed refers to the product of the number of Bitcoins traded on the chain and the number of days held by Bitcoin. The larger the value, the greater the risk of selling pressure on the secondary market. BTC currency day destruction number classification: greater than or equal to 100 million is the maximum value; 50 to 100 million is the larger value; 10 to 50 million is the median; less than or equal to 10 million is the smaller value. LTC currency day destruction number classification: greater than or equal to 500 million is the maximum value; 100 million to 500 million is the larger value; 50 to 100 million is the median; less than or equal to 50 million is the smaller value.

Number of Active Addresses in the Chain The number of active addresses in the chain refers to the number of addresses that have been traded in the address of the chain of the blockchain. Usually, this indicator can reflect the activity level of a chain of a public chain, and the demand activities under the chain such as secondary market transactions and wallet use will have a greater impact on it. Note: Encrypted assets are high-risk assets. This document is for decision-making purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.