These two days were all screened by Sina Oasis posters, and they returned to the era of Netease Black Diamond and Majibao at the beginning of last year. As with the previous two, various analyses in the industry have emerged one after another. It is quite interesting that so far, most of the research has been conducted from the perspective of “coin”, and few people will come from the perspective of the application itself. Talking about the future of this digital asset, from this point of view, the current currency circle is really a "coin" circle, just as its name.
However, if we look at the overall situation, the current industry’s pure attention to the currency is actually not comprehensive enough. It is like a person investing in foreign exchange in a country, not studying the development economy of the country, but instead pondering the country every day. What are the techniques for reverse repurchase and the technology of printing money in the country? To a certain extent, this is actually an important reason for the cryptocurrency industry to fall into a low tide, but many people still have not realized this.
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First, the electronic payment industry pattern before the car: the importance of the ecosystem
Why is the economic system in which cryptocurrency is located, which is crucial for the development of cryptocurrency? Before we start the discussion, let's take an example.
I believe many of my friends have noticed that as people's understanding of blockchain technology becomes more and more realistic, many people in the cryptocurrency industry are now aiming to retreat from the entire physical industry to the payment and financial industry, and they are the first to subvert. WeChat and Alipay, but have you ever thought about why WeChat and Alipay are the two most popular payment applications?
According to the logic of many people, the answer to this question should be “brand-name effect, high traffic flow”, but this explanation is actually not comprehensive. If it is judged only by brand, then Huawei, Ctrip, Baidu, and WiFi master keys How did the brand name develop a payment service that matches its own size? You must know that this industry is simply not described in the 28th law, it is simply the "0.2-99.8" law. The reason is that the ecology that supports WeChat and Alipay are two economic systems that cover a large number of people, use relatively high frequency, and have close communication between users – one is social and the other is e-commerce. .
It can be said that in today's Internet world, online chat and online shopping are two things that occupy the most people's time. If you don't believe it, you can open your own mobile phone record and see if the two applications that spend the most time each day are what. The flow of funds in WeChat and Alipay is accompanied by high-frequency information flow (WeChat) and commodity flow (Taobao Tmall), and this has pushed WeChat payment and Alipay to the head of the payment industry.
Ok, let's think about it. If there is an online transfer system for products other than WeChat and Alipay, how many people will use these payment systems? Not necessarily, Ctrip said that although this app is well-known among people who often travel and travel, the number of users leaving this circle is relatively small, and the coverage and frequency of use are limited. The WiFi universal key is often able to break into the top three mobile applications, but what about the high-frequency communication between users of this product, and even the scene of intensive information flow and product flow? the answer is negative. If the application is used as a carrier to build a payment system, what can be imagined? At present, most of the payment tools except WeChat and Alipay are competing for less than 10% of the market, that is, It’s a minute to say that it’s a lot of people in this field.
As for the scalability of the payment system and the TPS, it is really not the first thing to consider: even if you can carry 1 million user transfers per second, your economic ecosystem will only attract 10,000 users. What was the significance of the system's ability to increase the capacity of the system?
Second, the way out of cryptocurrency is not in itself, but in the commercial system on which it depends.
Specifically back to the issue of cryptocurrency.
It must be said that as a payment system that wants to mark the traditional transfer network, the problem that cryptocurrency now faces is very similar to the other companies mentioned above that want to impact Tencent and Alipay dominance: except for the early ones. Outside of the Dark Net transaction, you can't find any wide-ranging, high-frequency, and sustainable economy that supports the operation of this payment system.
The reason for this situation is the same as that mentioned by the author at the beginning of the article. At the current stage, the cryptocurrency industry has a narrow vision. The daily focus is only limited to the news in this field, but the industry is changing globally. The business system is not well-conceived, and naturally there is no reliable economic system similar to WeChat social and Taobao e-commerce. We don't know what kind of impact this situation will have in the long run, but for now, it has caused the cryptocurrency industry to fall into an embarrassing situation: that is, high-passive.
For the "passive" point, I believe many people who have participated in the blockchain industry have a deep understanding of this. In the traditional technology and finance field, when people face industry crisis, the first reaction is often to actively seek new breakout points, such as the “industrial transformation” often mentioned in recent years, “looking for new economic momentum, but in encryption”. In the currency industry, when people face the cold winter, they often only go to squatting, waiting, and looking forward. They are either waiting for the funds to save, pulling the price of the money to solve the problem; or looking forward to the entry of a certain giant into the blockchain, thereby attracting New leeks come to pick up. Whoever can get out of the cold winter, whoever wins. But if they want to take the initiative to do something out of the cold winter, but there are few related actions, this is not what they don't want, mainly because they don't know where to go. The root cause of this situation is that the industry does not have a deep understanding of the ecosystem in which cryptocurrency depends, that is, the increasingly distributed commercial economic system. Even many people may not even I have thought about this.
But the question is, if you don't know much about the operating principles of the emerging and increasingly distributed economic systems, how can you know how the currency is flowing? So we can see that the cryptocurrency industry's attempt to combine various realities in the past two years has not been very fruitful, and it is not a good combination with the Internet of Things. Look at the future track: I want to create a "blockchain + social", basically no waves, want to engage in a "blockchain + live broadcast", the result was used as a hoe to cut the leek, want to create a "block Chain + game", the result is all chain game betting, why is this happening?
The reason is what I mentioned above: because entrepreneurs lack a clear and accurate understanding of distributed business, and even the current business environment, which leads to many times, their direction is wrong, socially The Changwen blog has been proven to be outdated for many years. As a result, some project parties are still speculating on the concept of “passenger + long text blog socializing”, and the consequences are natural at a glance. As for the various details such as the so-called pass system, it is useless to design how it is designed, because when the project took the first step, he actually stepped on the grave and half of it was buried.
Interestingly, other observers in the industry often don't notice this kind of problem. As the author puts it at the beginning, their eyes are all on the "coin", for example, every year. The rate of additional issuance, what can be done, and the repurchase in the future, I don’t know that the details of this token can be changed at any time, just like the previous platform coins, as long as the main business behind it is hot. From the edge of the air to the mainstream value is simply not too simple. But if the direction of the project is not accurate, then the cost of correcting the error is quite high.
This Sina Oasis incident is actually a typical embodiment of this situation. Now most people in the industry are still focusing on the use of this currency. As for the application, which application is mainly used to carry social (currently it is the target ins?), what are the current social interactions? The breakthrough point that people can cut into, what they want to seize is the time and attention of people. Looking at most of the analysis articles of these two days, there is basically no mention, or even too much attention.
The first reaction of many people is: Sina Weibo does, has traffic, is very good for the cryptocurrency industry, can introduce many leeks… However, as the author mentioned in the previous series, a brand has visibility, It doesn't mean that your "concern conversion rate" is higher, you can import more users, and it doesn't mean that these users will pay for the related products. You must know that Tencent has also done e-commerce, and Ali has also played games. Huawei has also done a wallet… but what happened later? Do not pay attention to the product itself, do not pay attention to the business direction, but also look at the industry in accordance with the "brand-name platform" thinking, the final outcome is just repeating the story of Netease Black Diamond and Ali Majibao.
Therefore, based on this consideration, in the following series of articles, while discussing the cryptocurrency, the author will also conduct related discussions on the distributed commercial system that supports the value of cryptocurrency and creates a circulation channel for it, just as the author In the "bear market may continue for 1-3 years, how do we calm down the winter?" As mentioned in the article, a blockchain industry that lacks reliable applications is difficult to support a solid bull market. The application of this application cannot be achieved by simply encrypting the currency group. The key must not be inserted in the keyhole. The key to unlocking the cryptocurrency spring is likely to be in a commercial system outside the currency circle. The relevant details will be continuously introduced in the next column.
Author: Sun vice president